Middlesbrough v Bristol City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Middlesbrough

15:00 UTC

Bristol City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 724h before kick-off

Middlesbrough win

51.1%

model 51.8%

Draw

26.7%

model 26.6%

Bristol City win

22.2%

model 21.6%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.7%
2-1 9.7%
1-0 9.5%
2-0 9.3%
0-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.1%	Under 2.5	47.9%
BTTS yes	54.5%	BTTS no	45.5%
Middlesbrough 1+	82.0%	Middlesbrough 2+	51.2%
Bristol City 1+	64.8%	Bristol City 2+	28.0%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

42/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

91%

★ Best pick

Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 41%

52.5% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 884 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Middlesbrough not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1446.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Middlesbrough have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for the draw and 22.2% for Bristol City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Middlesbrough and 1.04 for Bristol City.

Why Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1446.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Bristol City can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Middlesbrough, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Bristol City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Middlesbrough: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Bristol City: 42% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Middlesbrough's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Middlesbrough are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522722	1.72–1.04	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	432928	1.46–1.14	1-1 14%	48%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win	43.0%	42.9%	43.4%	0.99×	2.33
Draw	29.0%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58
Bristol City to win	28.1%	27.9%	29.1%	0.96×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & not both score	23.1%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	20.0%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.59
Middlesbrough & both teams score	19.9%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Bristol City & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.53
Bristol City & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.53
Draw & not both score	8.9%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & over 1.5	33.6%	30.8%	32.5%	0.95×	3.25
Middlesbrough & under 3.5	30.2%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Middlesbrough & over 2.5	25.7%	26.1%	26.4%	0.99×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	22.8%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.8%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Bristol City & over 1.5	21.1%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Bristol City & under 3.5	20.7%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.0%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Middlesbrough & under 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Bristol City & over 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.56
Middlesbrough & over 3.5	12.8%	12.8%	11.1%	1.15×	7.79
Bristol City & under 2.5	11.8%	12.8%	12.9%	0.99×	7.79
Middlesbrough & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Bristol City & over 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63
Bristol City & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1UP)	58.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Bristol City (1UP)	45.7%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2UP)	43.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Bristol City (2UP)	28.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Middlesbrough to win 2nd half	35.6%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Bristol City to win 2nd half	27.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Bristol City under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Bristol City over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Bristol City over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City (+2.5)	91.6%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Bristol City (+1.5)	78.3%	78.5%	80.7%	0.97×	1.27
Middlesbrough (+0.5)	71.9%	73.6%	70.9%	1.04×	1.36
Bristol City (+0.5)	57.0%	57.0%	56.6%	1.01×	1.75
Middlesbrough (-0.5)	43.0%	43.0%	43.4%	0.99×	2.33
Bristol City (-0.5)	28.1%	26.4%	29.1%	0.91×	3.80
Middlesbrough (-1.5)	21.7%	21.5%	19.3%	1.11×	4.65
Middlesbrough (-2.5)	8.4%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City to concede	76.7%	78.8%	77.6%	1.02×	1.27
Bristol City clean sheet	23.3%	21.2%	22.4%	0.95×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City clean sheet in 1st half	53.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Bristol City to concede in 1st half	46.6%	49.4%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City to concede in 2nd half	56.4%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
Bristol City clean sheet in 2nd half	43.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City under 6.5 corners	82.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Bristol City under 5.5 corners	73.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bristol City over 2.5 corners	69.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Bristol City under 4.5 corners	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bristol City over 3.5 corners	52.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Bristol City under 3.5 corners	47.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Bristol City over 4.5 corners	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bristol City under 2.5 corners	31.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Bristol City over 5.5 corners	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bristol City over 6.5 corners	17.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Bristol City under 2.5 goals	89.2%	87.8%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Bristol City under 1.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Bristol City over 0.5 goals	68.0%	68.0%	69.5%	0.98×	1.47
Bristol City under 0.5 goals	32.0%	32.0%	30.5%	1.05×	3.13
Bristol City over 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	30.0%	1.07×	3.13
Bristol City over 2.5 goals	10.8%	12.2%	9.4%	1.29×	8.21
Bristol City over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.5%	2.2%	1.14×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Bristol City under 0.5 in 1st half	63.4%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Bristol City over 0.5 in 1st half	36.6%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Bristol City over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.36

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City scores equally in both	42.8%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Bristol City scores more in 2nd half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Bristol City scores more in 1st half	21.3%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (away no bet)	59.7%	57.4%	61.1%	0.94×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.3%	42.6%	38.9%	1.09×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City even goals	55.1%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Bristol City odd goals	44.9%	43.1%	47.6%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.8%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.2%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Middlesbrough to score 2+ in a row	35.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Bristol City to score 2+ in a row	23.7%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Middlesbrough to score 3+ in a row	12.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Bristol City to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.5%	—	—	18.05

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough corners (+3.5)	94.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough corners (+2.5)	92.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough corners (+1.5)	88.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Middlesbrough corners (-1.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Middlesbrough corners (-2.5)	63.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough corners (-3.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bristol City corners (+3.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Bristol City corners (+2.5)	36.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bristol City corners (+1.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Bristol City corners (-1.5)	11.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Bristol City corners (-2.5)	7.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Bristol City corners (-3.5)	5.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	55.7%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
0-8 corners	22.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
9-11 corners	22.1%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	84.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	77.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	70.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 10.5 corners	63.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 11.5 corners	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 12.5 corners	51.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 12.5 corners	48.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 11.5 corners	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	36.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	29.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 8.5 corners	22.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Under 7.5 corners	16.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.9%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.72
0-0	8.9%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.50
1-0	9.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.50
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.50
0-1	7.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
2-0	7.9%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.50
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.29
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2nd half DNB)	56.9%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Bristol City (2nd half DNB)	43.1%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough leading at HT (DNB)	60.2%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Bristol City leading at HT (DNB)	39.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1X)	71.9%	72.1%	70.9%	1.02×	1.39
Middlesbrough or Bristol City (12)	71.0%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Bristol City or draw (X2)	57.0%	57.1%	56.6%	1.01×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw at HT	78.0%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Bristol City or draw at HT	66.8%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Middlesbrough or Bristol City at HT	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1UP)	71.9%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Bristol City or draw (1UP)	57.0%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw in 2nd half	73.0%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Bristol City or draw in 2nd half	64.4%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Middlesbrough or Bristol City in 2nd half	62.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.8%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.2%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (DNB)	60.5%	62.7%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Bristol City (DNB)	39.5%	37.3%	40.1%	0.93×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score first	51.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Bristol City to score first	39.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	8.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.7%	51.3%	54.4%	0.94×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.3%	48.7%	45.6%	1.07×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.8%	38.4%	39.9%	0.96×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	38.1%	38.4%	37.1%	1.04×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.9%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.5%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.5%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	23.7%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.36
Both score in both halves	4.8%	5.0%	—	—	20.05

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.7%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.3%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	47.7%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.4%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	25.3%	26.6%	25.9%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.6%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.36
7+ goals	1.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.33

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Bristol City to score exactly 0	32.0%	33.8%	30.5%	1.11×	2.96
Bristol City to score exactly 2	20.8%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Bristol City to score 3+	10.8%	12.9%	9.4%	1.36×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score exactly 1	33.9%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Middlesbrough to score exactly 2	24.7%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Middlesbrough to score exactly 0	23.3%	23.3%	22.4%	1.04×	4.29
Middlesbrough to score 3+	18.1%	18.8%	16.1%	1.16×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Middlesbrough leading at HT	33.2%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Bristol City leading at HT	22.0%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough -1: 2	57.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Middlesbrough -1: 1	21.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Middlesbrough -1: X	21.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City (0:1)	57.0%	55.8%	56.6%	0.99×	1.79
Middlesbrough (0:1)	21.7%	24.2%	19.3%	1.26×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	21.3%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City (0:2)	78.3%	79.4%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.09
Middlesbrough (0:2)	8.4%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City (0:3)	91.6%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.24
Middlesbrough (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.89
Middlesbrough (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.03

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1:0)	71.9%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.3%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.85
Bristol City (1:0)	11.8%	12.7%	11.7%	1.08×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2:0)	88.2%	88.5%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.1%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.68
Bristol City (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.0%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	27.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede	68.0%	66.7%	69.5%	0.96×	1.50
Middlesbrough clean sheet	32.0%	33.3%	30.5%	1.09×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 1st half	63.4%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Middlesbrough to concede in 1st half	36.6%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 2nd half	50.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Middlesbrough to concede in 2nd half	49.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough over 2.5 corners	93.9%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough over 3.5 corners	88.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners	81.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Middlesbrough over 5.5 corners	72.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Middlesbrough over 6.5 corners	64.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Middlesbrough under 6.5 corners	36.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Middlesbrough under 5.5 corners	27.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Middlesbrough under 4.5 corners	18.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Middlesbrough under 3.5 corners	11.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.27
Middlesbrough under 2.5 corners	6.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 3.5 goals	94.0%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals	81.9%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Middlesbrough over 0.5 goals	76.7%	77.7%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Middlesbrough under 1.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	40.6%	1.02×	2.42
Middlesbrough under 0.5 goals	23.3%	22.3%	22.4%	0.99×	4.49
Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals	18.1%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.62
Middlesbrough over 3.5 goals	6.0%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 1st half	86.9%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 1st half	13.1%	9.8%	—	—	10.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough scores more in 2nd half	37.5%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Middlesbrough scores equally in both	37.1%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Middlesbrough scores more in 1st half	25.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.8%	51.4%	48.7%	1.05×	1.95
Bristol City (home no bet)	49.2%	48.7%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough even goals	52.7%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Middlesbrough odd goals	47.3%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.1%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
HT 1-0	21.0%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	15.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	9.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 2-0	6.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
Any other HT score	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	25.5%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	15.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Bristol City at HT / Bristol City at FT	14.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Bristol City at FT	11.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Middlesbrough at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Bristol City at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.58
Bristol City at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Middlesbrough at HT / Bristol City at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score last	51.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Bristol City to score last	39.8%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	8.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.1%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Middlesbrough to lead by 1 at any time	58.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Bristol City to lead by 1 at any time	45.7%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Middlesbrough to lead by 2 at any time	27.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Bristol City to lead by 2 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Middlesbrough to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Bristol City to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	1.7%	—	—	60.02

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough most corners	77.7%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Bristol City most corners	16.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	5.9%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.0%	72.4%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.8%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.7%	63.3%	69.1%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.5%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.4%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.4%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-5 goals	43.2%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.0%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.9%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.6%	24.5%	22.4%	1.09×	4.08
4-5 goals	21.5%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.5%	14.8%	8.2%	1.81×	6.76
7+ goals	1.7%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough never behind	45.3%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Bristol City never behind	32.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.7%	72.5%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	73.7%	72.5%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	52.5%	51.6%	1.02×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	47.5%	48.4%	0.98×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.3%	27.5%	23.7%	1.16×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.3%	27.5%	25.9%	1.06×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	9.4%	1.31×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.7%	92.4%	95.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.8%	86.7%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	66.4%	67.4%	68.5%	0.98×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.5%	67.4%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.5%	32.6%	34.9%	0.93×	3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	33.7%	32.6%	31.5%	1.03×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.2%	13.3%	11.0%	1.21×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.3%	7.6%	4.2%	1.80×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.4%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	20.6%	—	—	4.85
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City not to score in both halves	81.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Middlesbrough not to score in both halves	73.7%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Middlesbrough to score in both halves	26.3%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Bristol City to score in both halves	18.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.7%	53.9%	54.4%	0.99×	1.86
Only Middlesbrough scores	23.1%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.49
Only Bristol City scores	14.3%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.05
Neither team scores	8.9%	7.1%	7.3%	0.98×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.4%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.1%	12.1%	14.4%	0.85×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	8.9%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.3%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.9%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	34.1%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	9.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.29

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	22.5%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City not to win both halves	93.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Middlesbrough not to win both halves	87.9%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Middlesbrough to win both halves	12.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Bristol City to win both halves	6.1%	5.9%	—	—	17.08

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City to win neither half	57.1%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Middlesbrough to win either half	56.7%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Middlesbrough to win neither half	43.3%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Bristol City to win either half	42.9%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bristol City not to win to nil	85.7%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Middlesbrough not to win to nil	76.9%	78.1%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
Middlesbrough to win to nil	23.1%	21.9%	23.3%	0.94×	4.57
Bristol City to win to nil	14.3%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.0%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Middlesbrough by 1	21.3%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Bristol City by 1	16.3%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87
Middlesbrough by 2	13.3%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.51
Middlesbrough by 3+	8.4%	7.2%	8.1%	0.89×	13.90
Bristol City by 2	8.1%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.90
Bristol City by 3+	3.6%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.79