Middlesbrough v Derby County — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Middlesbrough

12:30 UTC

Derby County

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,081h before kick-off

Middlesbrough win

53.2%

model 54.1%

Draw

27.7%

model 26.5%

Derby County win

19.1%

model 19.4%

532819

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.7%
1-0 10.5%
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.7%
0-0 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.1%	Under 2.5	49.9%
BTTS yes	51.9%	BTTS no	48.1%
Middlesbrough 1+	82.2%	Middlesbrough 2+	51.4%
Derby County 1+	61.5%	Derby County 2+	24.7%

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.95. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

43/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 41%

52.6% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 884 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Derby County not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1427.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Middlesbrough have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 19.1% for Derby County. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Middlesbrough and 0.95 for Derby County.

Why Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1427.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Derby County can win

Nothing in the data singles out Derby County.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Middlesbrough, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Middlesbrough: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Derby County: 49% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Middlesbrough's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Middlesbrough are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 43/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542619	1.72–0.95	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	492922	1.50–0.94	1-1 14%	44%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win	48.7%	47.4%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
Draw	29.1%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58
Derby County to win	22.3%	24.4%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & not both score	28.8%	25.2%	23.3%	1.08×	3.97
Middlesbrough & both teams score	19.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.57
Derby County & not both score	12.2%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.2%	13.3%	7.3%	1.82×	7.54
Derby County & both teams score	10.1%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & over 1.5	37.1%	34.9%	32.5%	1.08×	2.87
Middlesbrough & under 3.5	35.5%	34.9%	32.4%	1.08×	2.87
Middlesbrough & over 2.5	27.3%	26.1%	26.4%	0.99×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.0%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.0%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Middlesbrough & under 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	17.1%	1.27×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Derby County & under 3.5	17.6%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Derby County & over 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Middlesbrough & over 3.5	13.2%	12.8%	11.1%	1.15×	7.79
Middlesbrough & under 1.5	11.6%	12.8%	11.0%	1.16×	7.79
Derby County & over 2.5	11.7%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Derby County & under 2.5	10.6%	12.8%	12.9%	0.99×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.2%	12.8%	7.3%	1.76×	7.79
Derby County & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Derby County & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.8%	0.71×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1UP)	62.4%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Derby County (1UP)	39.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2UP)	48.7%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Derby County (2UP)	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win 2nd half	39.4%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
2nd half drawn	38.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Derby County to win 2nd half	22.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.0%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Derby County under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.9%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Derby County over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.1%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Derby County over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.0%	13.1%	—	—	7.63

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.6%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (+2.5)	89.8%	88.5%	91.9%	0.96×	1.13
Middlesbrough (+0.5)	77.7%	78.5%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Derby County (+1.5)	74.6%	73.7%	80.7%	0.91×	1.36
Derby County (+0.5)	51.3%	52.4%	56.6%	0.93×	1.91
Middlesbrough (-0.5)	48.7%	47.6%	43.4%	1.10×	2.10
Middlesbrough (-1.5)	25.4%	26.3%	19.3%	1.37×	3.80
Derby County (-0.5)	22.3%	21.5%	29.1%	0.74×	4.65
Middlesbrough (-2.5)	10.2%	11.5%	8.1%	1.43×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede	77.6%	78.8%	77.6%	1.02×	1.27
Derby County clean sheet	22.4%	21.2%	22.4%	0.95×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County clean sheet in 1st half	52.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Derby County to concede in 1st half	47.4%	49.4%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede in 2nd half	57.4%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Derby County clean sheet in 2nd half	42.6%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 6.5 corners	78.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Derby County over 2.5 corners	72.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Derby County under 5.5 corners	69.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Derby County over 3.5 corners	57.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Derby County under 4.5 corners	57.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Derby County over 4.5 corners	43.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Derby County under 3.5 corners	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Derby County over 5.5 corners	30.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Derby County under 2.5 corners	27.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Derby County over 6.5 corners	21.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Derby County under 2.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Derby County under 1.5 goals	75.7%	76.2%	70.0%	1.09×	1.31
Derby County over 0.5 goals	61.0%	63.2%	69.5%	0.91×	1.58
Derby County under 0.5 goals	39.0%	36.8%	30.5%	1.21×	2.71
Derby County over 1.5 goals	24.3%	23.8%	30.0%	0.79×	4.21
Derby County over 2.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	9.4%	0.81×	13.06
Derby County over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Derby County under 0.5 in 1st half	68.6%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Derby County over 0.5 in 1st half	31.4%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Derby County over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.57

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County scores equally in both	47.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Derby County scores more in 2nd half	32.6%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Derby County scores more in 1st half	19.7%	18.2%	—	—	5.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (away no bet)	62.6%	61.9%	61.1%	1.01×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.4%	38.1%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County even goals	57.6%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Derby County odd goals	42.4%	43.1%	47.6%	0.90×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.1%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.9%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Middlesbrough to score 2+ in a row	37.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Derby County to score 2+ in a row	17.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Middlesbrough to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Derby County to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.37

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough corners (+3.5)	93.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough corners (+2.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough corners (+1.5)	87.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Middlesbrough corners (-1.5)	69.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Middlesbrough corners (-2.5)	62.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough corners (-3.5)	54.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Derby County corners (+3.5)	45.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Derby County corners (+2.5)	37.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Derby County corners (+1.5)	30.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Derby County corners (-1.5)	12.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Derby County corners (-2.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Derby County corners (-3.5)	6.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	59.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	21.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
0-8 corners	19.7%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	86.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Over 8.5 corners	80.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 9.5 corners	73.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 10.5 corners	66.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 11.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 12.5 corners	52.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 12.5 corners	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 11.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	33.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 9.5 corners	26.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 8.5 corners	19.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Under 7.5 corners	13.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.8%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.72
1-0	11.6%	11.5%	11.0%	1.04×	8.72
0-0	10.2%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.50
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.50
0-1	6.7%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
3-0	4.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.29
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.32
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2nd half DNB)	63.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.59
Derby County (2nd half DNB)	36.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough leading at HT (DNB)	66.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Derby County leading at HT (DNB)	33.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1X)	77.7%	75.6%	70.9%	1.07×	1.32
Middlesbrough or Derby County (12)	70.9%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Derby County or draw (X2)	51.3%	52.6%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw at HT	81.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Derby County or draw at HT	64.0%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough or Derby County at HT	54.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1UP)	77.7%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Derby County or draw (1UP)	51.3%	58.6%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw in 2nd half	77.8%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Middlesbrough or Derby County in 2nd half	61.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Derby County or draw in 2nd half	60.6%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.1%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.9%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (DNB)	68.6%	67.4%	59.9%	1.13×	1.48
Derby County (DNB)	31.4%	32.6%	40.1%	0.81×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score first	55.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Derby County to score first	34.7%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
No goal scored	10.2%	9.3%	—	—	10.72

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.2%	51.3%	45.6%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	48.8%	48.7%	54.4%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.2%	41.6%	37.1%	1.12×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	35.0%	38.4%	39.9%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.8%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.3%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.7%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.7%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.3%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.6%	21.0%	—	—	4.75
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.38
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.27

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	49.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	28.6%	26.6%	25.9%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	21.7%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	1.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.38

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score exactly 0	39.0%	35.9%	30.5%	1.18×	2.78
Derby County to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Derby County to score exactly 2	17.3%	19.6%	20.6%	0.95×	5.11
Derby County to score 3+	7.0%	8.5%	9.4%	0.91×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score exactly 1	33.5%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Middlesbrough to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Middlesbrough to score exactly 0	22.4%	23.3%	22.4%	1.04×	4.29
Middlesbrough to score 3+	19.0%	18.8%	16.1%	1.16×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Middlesbrough leading at HT	36.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Derby County leading at HT	18.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough -1: 2	51.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Middlesbrough -1: 1	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Middlesbrough -1: X	23.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:1)	51.3%	51.3%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Middlesbrough (0:1)	25.4%	27.0%	19.3%	1.40×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.2%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:2)	74.6%	75.7%	80.7%	0.94×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.3%	15.3%	11.3%	1.35×	6.55
Middlesbrough (0:2)	10.2%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:3)	89.8%	90.7%	91.9%	0.99×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.9%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.22
Middlesbrough (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:4)	96.7%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.84
Middlesbrough (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.00

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1:0)	77.7%	78.7%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.1%	12.7%	17.4%	0.73×	7.87
Derby County (1:0)	8.2%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2:0)	91.8%	94.0%	88.3%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.0%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.70
Derby County (2:0)	2.2%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Halves equal	28.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede	61.0%	63.6%	69.5%	0.92×	1.57
Middlesbrough clean sheet	39.0%	36.4%	30.5%	1.19×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 1st half	68.6%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Middlesbrough to concede in 1st half	31.4%	30.2%	—	—	3.31

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 2nd half	56.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Middlesbrough to concede in 2nd half	43.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough over 2.5 corners	94.2%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough over 3.5 corners	88.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Middlesbrough over 5.5 corners	74.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Middlesbrough over 6.5 corners	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Middlesbrough under 6.5 corners	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Middlesbrough under 5.5 corners	26.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Middlesbrough under 4.5 corners	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Middlesbrough under 3.5 corners	11.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.27
Middlesbrough under 2.5 corners	5.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 3.5 goals	93.5%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals	81.0%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Middlesbrough over 0.5 goals	77.6%	77.7%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Middlesbrough under 1.5 goals	55.9%	58.6%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals	44.1%	41.4%	40.6%	1.02×	2.41
Middlesbrough under 0.5 goals	22.4%	22.3%	22.4%	0.99×	4.49
Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals	19.0%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.62
Middlesbrough over 3.5 goals	6.5%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 1st half	86.4%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 1st half	52.6%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 1st half	47.4%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 1st half	13.6%	9.9%	—	—	10.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough scores more in 2nd half	37.9%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Middlesbrough scores equally in both	36.5%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Middlesbrough scores more in 1st half	25.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.6%	56.4%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Derby County (home no bet)	43.4%	43.6%	51.3%	0.85×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough even goals	52.5%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Middlesbrough odd goals	47.5%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
HT 1-0	22.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.09
HT 0-1	13.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 1-1	9.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-0	7.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	29.2%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	17.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Derby County at HT / Derby County at FT	11.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Derby County at FT	9.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Middlesbrough at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Derby County at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.60
Derby County at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Middlesbrough at HT / Derby County at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score last	55.3%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Derby County to score last	34.5%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	10.2%	8.7%	—	—	11.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.8%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Middlesbrough to lead by 1 at any time	62.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Derby County to lead by 1 at any time	39.0%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Middlesbrough to lead by 2 at any time	30.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Derby County to lead by 2 at any time	12.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Middlesbrough to lead by 3 at any time	12.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Derby County to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.78

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough most corners	76.2%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Derby County most corners	17.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	5.9%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.0%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	70.2%	72.4%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.6%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.9%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.8%	48.5%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	42.7%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.2%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	33.9%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	21.7%	24.5%	22.4%	1.09×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.1%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.8%	8.9%	8.2%	1.09×	11.25
7+ goals	1.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough never behind	50.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Derby County never behind	27.4%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.0%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.0%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	89.9%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	89.8%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.1%	77.3%	76.3%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.4%	72.5%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	41.4%	48.4%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	28.6%	27.5%	25.9%	1.06×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	22.9%	22.7%	23.7%	0.96×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	10.2%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	10.1%	12.4%	9.4%	1.31×	8.07
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.0%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.5%	86.7%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.0%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.6%	61.9%	65.1%	0.95×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.4%	38.1%	34.9%	1.09×	2.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.0%	27.6%	31.5%	0.88×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.5%	13.3%	11.0%	1.21×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.0%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.3%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.7%	20.7%	—	—	4.83
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to score in both halves	86.5%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Middlesbrough not to score in both halves	72.8%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Middlesbrough to score in both halves	27.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Derby County to score in both halves	13.5%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	48.8%	50.7%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
Only Middlesbrough scores	28.8%	26.1%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Only Derby County scores	12.2%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.06
Neither team scores	10.2%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.4%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.3%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.8%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	10.2%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	36.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	19.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
3+ goals in 1st half	8.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	24.7%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to win both halves	95.8%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Middlesbrough not to win both halves	85.6%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Middlesbrough to win both halves	14.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Derby County to win both halves	4.2%	2.9%	—	—	35.06

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to win neither half	63.8%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Middlesbrough to win either half	60.9%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Middlesbrough to win neither half	39.1%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Derby County to win either half	36.2%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to win to nil	87.8%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Middlesbrough not to win to nil	71.2%	75.3%	76.7%	0.98×	1.33
Middlesbrough to win to nil	28.8%	24.7%	23.3%	1.06×	4.05
Derby County to win to nil	12.2%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.1%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58
Middlesbrough by 1	23.2%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Middlesbrough by 2	15.3%	17.0%	11.3%	1.51×	5.87
Derby County by 1	14.1%	11.8%	17.4%	0.68×	8.50
Middlesbrough by 3+	10.2%	11.7%	8.1%	1.46×	8.51
Derby County by 2	6.0%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Derby County by 3+	2.2%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.84