Millonarios v Alianza FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Millonarios

20:30 UTC

Alianza FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 298h before kick-off

Millonarios win

67.1%

model 66.4%

Draw

22.4%

model 22.4%

Alianza FC win

10.5%

model 11.2%

672210

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 14.0%
1-0 13.9%
1-1 10.4%
2-1 9.2%
3-0 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.1%	Under 2.5	52.9%
BTTS yes	41.7%	BTTS no	58.3%
Millonarios 1+	85.1%	Millonarios 2+	56.8%
Alianza FC 1+	48.0%	Alianza FC 2+	14.0%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Millonarios (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 46%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Millonarios leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time

84.0% fair odds 1.19

weak signal · 70 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Millonarios carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1383.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Millonarios have an estimated 67.1% win probability, against 22.4% for the draw and 10.5% for Alianza FC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.91 for Millonarios and 0.65 for Alianza FC.

Why Millonarios

Millonarios carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1383.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Alianza FC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Alianza FC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Millonarios, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alianza FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Millonarios: 51% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alianza FC: 45% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Millonarios are the model's most likely outcome at 67.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 14.0%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	662211	1.91–0.65	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	692110	2.00–0.62	2-0 15%	49%	41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to win	69.4%	64.9%	45.8%	1.42×	1.54
Draw	20.9%	24.5%	29.5%	0.83×	4.09
Alianza FC to win	9.7%	8.2%	24.8%	0.33×	12.14

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios & not both score	46.0%	42.9%	27.1%	1.58×	2.33
Millonarios & both teams score	23.4%	21.8%	18.8%	1.16×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	12.9%	13.3%	18.8%	0.70×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.0%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.00
Alianza FC & not both score	5.5%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.01
Alianza FC & both teams score	4.2%	4.9%	11.5%	0.42×	20.50

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios & over 1.5	55.5%	54.8%	33.8%	1.62×	1.83
Millonarios & under 3.5	47.3%	45.1%	35.7%	1.26×	2.22
Millonarios & over 2.5	40.9%	40.3%	25.5%	1.58×	2.48
Millonarios & under 2.5	28.5%	26.1%	20.5%	1.27×	3.84
Millonarios & over 3.5	22.2%	21.6%	10.2%	2.11×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.56
Millonarios & under 1.5	13.9%	12.8%	12.2%	1.05×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	12.9%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Alianza FC & under 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	19.9%	0.40×	12.63
Alianza FC & over 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	16.5%	0.48×	12.63
Alianza FC & under 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	12.1%	0.66×	12.63
Alianza FC & over 2.5	4.5%	4.8%	12.9%	0.37×	20.81
Alianza FC & under 1.5	3.8%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	3.2%	4.8%	6.0%	0.81×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.2%	4.8%	6.0%	0.81×	20.82
Alianza FC & over 3.5	1.5%	4.8%	5.0%	0.96×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (1UP)	77.9%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Alianza FC (1UP)	23.7%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (2UP)	69.4%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Alianza FC (2UP)	9.7%	8.9%	—	—	11.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to win 2nd half	55.4%	61.1%	—	—	1.64
2nd half drawn	32.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Alianza FC to win 2nd half	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	94.6%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Alianza FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Alianza FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Alianza FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	5.4%	8.0%	—	—	12.55

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Millonarios over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.1%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Millonarios under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Millonarios over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (+0.5)	90.3%	92.1%	75.2%	1.22×	1.09
Alianza FC (+2.5)	77.2%	78.5%	91.8%	0.85×	1.27
Millonarios (-0.5)	69.4%	68.7%	45.8%	1.50×	1.46
Alianza FC (+1.5)	55.5%	57.0%	79.6%	0.72×	1.75
Millonarios (-1.5)	44.5%	43.0%	20.4%	2.11×	2.33
Alianza FC (+0.5)	30.6%	31.3%	54.2%	0.58×	3.19
Millonarios (-2.5)	22.8%	21.5%	8.2%	2.63×	4.65
Alianza FC (-0.5)	9.7%	7.9%	24.8%	0.32×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to concede	86.5%	86.3%	75.9%	1.14×	1.16
Alianza FC clean sheet	13.5%	13.7%	24.1%	0.57×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to concede in 1st half	57.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Alianza FC clean sheet in 1st half	42.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to concede in 2nd half	68.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Alianza FC clean sheet in 2nd half	31.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 6.5 corners	92.5%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Alianza FC under 5.5 corners	86.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Alianza FC under 4.5 corners	76.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Alianza FC under 3.5 corners	61.3%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Alianza FC over 2.5 corners	57.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Alianza FC under 2.5 corners	42.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Alianza FC over 3.5 corners	38.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Alianza FC over 4.5 corners	24.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Alianza FC over 5.5 corners	13.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Alianza FC over 6.5 corners	7.5%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 3.5 goals	99.6%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Alianza FC under 2.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	92.9%	1.05×	1.03
Alianza FC under 1.5 goals	87.3%	87.8%	74.2%	1.18×	1.14
Alianza FC under 0.5 goals	54.0%	53.6%	37.8%	1.42×	1.87
Alianza FC over 0.5 goals	46.0%	46.5%	62.2%	0.75×	2.15
Alianza FC over 1.5 goals	12.7%	12.2%	25.8%	0.47×	8.20
Alianza FC over 2.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	7.1%	0.36×	39.84
Alianza FC over 3.5 goals	0.4%	2.5%	1.9%	1.29×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 1.5 in 1st half	97.4%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Alianza FC under 0.5 in 1st half	78.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Alianza FC over 0.5 in 1st half	21.8%	24.8%	—	—	4.04
Alianza FC over 1.5 in 1st half	2.6%	3.8%	—	—	26.65

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC scores equally in both	59.0%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Alianza FC scores more in 2nd half	25.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Alianza FC scores more in 1st half	15.8%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (away no bet)	76.8%	73.5%	60.8%	1.21×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	23.2%	26.5%	39.2%	0.68×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC even goals	64.6%	59.2%	57.6%	1.03×	1.69
Alianza FC odd goals	35.4%	40.8%	42.4%	0.96×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.5%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Millonarios to score 2+ in a row	54.4%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.6%	25.0%	—	—	4.01
Millonarios to score 3+ in a row	26.5%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Alianza FC to score 2+ in a row	8.1%	5.5%	—	—	18.13
Alianza FC to score 3+ in a row	1.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios corners (+3.5)	95.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Millonarios corners (+2.5)	92.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Millonarios corners (+1.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Millonarios corners (-1.5)	62.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Alianza FC corners (+3.5)	58.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Millonarios corners (-2.5)	52.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Alianza FC corners (+2.5)	47.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Millonarios corners (-3.5)	41.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Alianza FC corners (+1.5)	37.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Alianza FC corners (-1.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Alianza FC corners (-2.5)	7.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Alianza FC corners (-3.5)	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	26.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	34.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	14.6%	11.5%	8.4%	1.36×	8.71
1-0	13.9%	11.5%	12.2%	0.94×	8.71
1-1	9.7%	7.4%	13.0%	0.57×	13.51
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.51
3-0	9.8%	7.4%	4.6%	1.62×	13.51
0-0	8.0%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
3-1	6.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.51
Any other score	5.3%	7.4%	2.4%	3.14×	13.51
4-0	4.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.29
0-1	3.8%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.30
0-2	1.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.31
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.32
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
1-2	2.8%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.32
2-2	2.8%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.19×	58.32
4-1	3.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.30
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (2nd half DNB)	82.5%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Alianza FC (2nd half DNB)	17.5%	17.7%	—	—	5.64

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios leading at HT (DNB)	83.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Alianza FC leading at HT (DNB)	17.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios or draw (1X)	90.3%	91.8%	75.2%	1.22×	1.09
Millonarios or Alianza FC (12)	79.1%	75.5%	70.5%	1.07×	1.32
Alianza FC or draw (X2)	30.6%	35.1%	54.2%	0.65×	2.85

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios or draw at HT	89.9%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Millonarios or Alianza FC at HT	59.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Alianza FC or draw at HT	50.8%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios or draw (1UP)	90.3%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
Alianza FC or draw (1UP)	30.6%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios or draw in 2nd half	88.3%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Millonarios or Alianza FC in 2nd half	67.1%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Alianza FC or draw in 2nd half	44.6%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.4%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.6%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (DNB)	87.8%	87.1%	64.9%	1.34×	1.15
Alianza FC (DNB)	12.2%	12.9%	35.1%	0.37×	7.78

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to score first	70.3%	74.9%	—	—	1.33
Alianza FC to score first	21.6%	22.5%	—	—	4.44
No goal scored	8.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	59.5%	55.0%	51.1%	1.08×	1.82
Both teams to score	40.5%	45.0%	48.9%	0.92×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.7%	41.6%	43.1%	0.97×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	30.8%	34.6%	36.0%	0.96×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	17.8%	21.5%	8.2%	2.63×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.4%	89.0%	88.6%	1.00×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.6%	11.0%	11.4%	0.97×	9.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.7%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.3%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	68.6%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	18.6%	15.0%	—	—	6.65
Both score 1st half only	10.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.35
Both score in both halves	2.7%	4.8%	—	—	20.63

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.3%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	12.7%	15.1%	—	—	6.63

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	47.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.6%	47.2%	48.1%	0.98×	2.12
0-1 goals	25.6%	26.6%	31.2%	0.85×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.0%	26.6%	19.5%	1.36×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	54.39

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to score exactly 0	54.0%	47.2%	37.8%	1.25×	2.12
Alianza FC to score exactly 1	33.3%	33.8%	36.6%	0.93×	2.96
Alianza FC to score exactly 2	10.2%	12.9%	18.8%	0.68×	7.77
Alianza FC to score 3+	2.5%	4.6%	7.1%	0.65×	21.91

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to score 3+	32.4%	32.6%	15.5%	2.10×	3.07
Millonarios to score exactly 1	27.0%	26.6%	34.5%	0.77×	3.77
Millonarios to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.6%	26.2%	1.01×	3.77
Millonarios to score exactly 0	13.5%	14.3%	24.1%	0.59×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios leading at HT	49.2%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Draw at HT	40.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Alianza FC leading at HT	10.1%	11.5%	—	—	8.73

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios -1: 1	44.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Millonarios -1: 2	30.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Millonarios -1: X	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (0:1)	44.5%	42.7%	20.4%	2.10×	2.34
Alianza FC (0:1)	30.6%	30.1%	54.2%	0.56×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	24.9%	24.2%	25.6%	0.95×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC (0:2)	55.5%	63.0%	79.6%	0.79×	1.59
Millonarios (0:2)	22.8%	20.3%	8.2%	2.48×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	21.6%	20.3%	12.3%	1.64×	4.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC (0:3)	77.2%	80.7%	91.8%	0.88×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	13.2%	9.9%	5.4%	1.83×	10.11
Millonarios (0:3)	9.7%	5.8%	2.9%	2.00×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC (0:4)	90.3%	94.5%	97.1%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	6.2%	4.6%	1.9%	2.38×	21.64
Millonarios (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.59

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (1:0)	90.3%	92.5%	75.2%	1.23×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	7.2%	6.9%	17.3%	0.40×	14.50
Alianza FC (1:0)	2.5%	3.3%	7.6%	0.43×	30.74

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (2:0)	97.5%	96.8%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	5.0%	0.46×	43.80
Alianza FC (2:0)	0.4%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.90

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.9%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	26.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios clean sheet	54.0%	53.2%	37.8%	1.41×	1.88
Millonarios to concede	46.0%	46.8%	62.2%	0.75×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios clean sheet in 1st half	78.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Millonarios to concede in 1st half	21.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios clean sheet in 2nd half	69.1%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Millonarios to concede in 2nd half	30.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios over 2.5 corners	87.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Millonarios over 3.5 corners	77.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Millonarios over 4.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Millonarios under 6.5 corners	59.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Millonarios over 5.5 corners	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Millonarios under 5.5 corners	47.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Millonarios over 6.5 corners	40.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Millonarios under 4.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Millonarios under 3.5 corners	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Millonarios under 2.5 corners	12.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios over 0.5 goals	86.5%	87.3%	75.9%	1.15×	1.15
Millonarios under 3.5 goals	85.7%	87.3%	95.3%	0.92×	1.15
Millonarios under 2.5 goals	67.6%	67.9%	84.5%	0.80×	1.47
Millonarios over 1.5 goals	59.5%	58.7%	41.6%	1.41×	1.70
Millonarios under 1.5 goals	40.5%	41.3%	58.4%	0.71×	2.42
Millonarios over 2.5 goals	32.4%	32.1%	15.5%	2.07×	3.12
Millonarios over 3.5 goals	14.3%	12.7%	4.7%	2.71×	7.85
Millonarios under 0.5 goals	13.5%	12.7%	24.1%	0.53×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios under 1.5 in 1st half	78.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Millonarios over 0.5 in 1st half	57.7%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Millonarios under 0.5 in 1st half	42.3%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Millonarios over 1.5 in 1st half	21.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios scores more in 2nd half	42.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Millonarios scores equally in both	30.4%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
Millonarios scores more in 1st half	27.5%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	68.4%	64.2%	54.3%	1.18×	1.56
Alianza FC (home no bet)	31.6%	35.8%	45.7%	0.78×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios even goals	50.9%	50.7%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
Millonarios odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	46.7%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.2%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
HT 1-0	28.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 2-0	12.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 0-1	8.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 1-1	7.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
Any other HT score	5.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 0-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.36
HT 1-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.36
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.40

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios at HT / Millonarios at FT	45.0%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Draw at HT / Millonarios at FT	22.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Alianza FC at HT / Alianza FC at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Draw at HT / Alianza FC at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Millonarios at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Alianza FC at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Alianza FC at HT / Millonarios at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Millonarios at HT / Alianza FC at FT	0.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.01

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to score last	70.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Alianza FC to score last	21.4%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
No goal scored	8.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.0%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Millonarios to lead by 1 at any time	77.9%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Millonarios to lead by 2 at any time	49.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Millonarios to lead by 3 at any time	25.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Alianza FC to lead by 1 at any time	23.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Alianza FC to lead by 2 at any time	4.7%	1.6%	—	—	60.81
Alianza FC to lead by 3 at any time	0.7%	1.5%	—	—	64.58

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios most corners	72.8%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Alianza FC most corners	18.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Corners level	8.6%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.5%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.6%	72.3%	67.5%	1.07×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.3%	68.8%	65.4%	1.05×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.2%	68.8%	68.4%	1.01×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.8%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.6%	48.4%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.9%	48.4%	42.7%	1.14×	2.06
3-5 goals	43.6%	43.6%	40.6%	1.07×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.4%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.1%	39.2%	34.9%	1.12×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.0%	30.2%	19.5%	1.55×	3.31
4-5 goals	21.8%	24.4%	17.5%	1.40×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.8%	14.8%	7.9%	1.87×	6.76
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	1.5%	1.67×	39.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios never behind	68.3%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Alianza FC never behind	14.1%	12.4%	—	—	8.04

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.3%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.7%	49.1%	49.6%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.5%	87.6%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.4%	72.5%	68.8%	1.05×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	73.2%	72.5%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	52.5%	56.0%	0.94×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	47.5%	44.0%	1.08×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.8%	27.5%	20.9%	1.32×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.6%	27.5%	31.2%	0.88×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	12.5%	12.4%	9.3%	1.34×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	3.6%	2.15×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.6%	92.4%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.4%	86.7%	89.5%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.7%	67.5%	72.8%	0.93×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.5%	67.5%	58.6%	1.15×	1.48
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.5%	32.5%	41.4%	0.78×	3.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.3%	32.5%	27.2%	1.20×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.6%	13.3%	10.5%	1.26×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.4%	7.6%	3.8%	1.98×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	1.6%	1.80×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.9%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.5%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.8%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.2%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.5%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.19

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	20.4%	—	—	4.90
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC not to score in both halves	93.3%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
Millonarios not to score in both halves	60.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Millonarios to score in both halves	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Alianza FC to score in both halves	6.7%	9.2%	—	—	10.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Millonarios scores	46.0%	50.6%	27.1%	1.87×	1.97
Both teams score	40.5%	46.6%	48.9%	0.95×	2.15
Neither team scores	8.0%	7.1%	10.8%	0.66×	14.00
Only Alianza FC scores	5.5%	7.1%	13.4%	0.53×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.7%	24.9%	24.9%	1.00×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.6%	17.5%	20.5%	0.85×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.3%	12.1%	11.8%	1.03×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	8.0%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.5%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.0%	7.6%	3.6%	2.11×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	33.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	20.4%	21.4%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	10.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.8%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.3%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC not to win both halves	98.8%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Millonarios not to win both halves	72.5%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Millonarios to win both halves	27.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Alianza FC to win both halves	1.2%	2.7%	—	—	36.74

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to win neither half	79.4%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Millonarios to win either half	77.2%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Millonarios to win neither half	22.8%	20.4%	—	—	4.91
Alianza FC to win either half	20.6%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC not to win to nil	94.5%	92.1%	86.6%	1.06×	1.09
Millonarios not to win to nil	54.0%	53.9%	72.9%	0.74×	1.86
Millonarios to win to nil	46.0%	46.1%	27.1%	1.70×	2.17
Alianza FC to win to nil	5.5%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.69

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios by 1	24.9%	24.1%	25.6%	0.94×	4.15
Millonarios by 3+	22.8%	24.1%	8.2%	2.95×	4.15
Millonarios by 2	21.6%	24.1%	12.3%	1.96×	4.15
Draw	20.9%	24.1%	29.5%	0.82×	4.15
Alianza FC by 1	7.2%	7.2%	17.3%	0.42×	13.91
Alianza FC by 2	2.0%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.91
Alianza FC by 3+	0.4%	2.7%	2.8%	0.98×	36.96