Millwall v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Millwall

15:00 UTC

Burnley

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 844h before kick-off

Millwall win

44.1%

model 42.8%

Draw

28.0%

model 29.1%

Burnley win

27.9%

model 28.0%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.9%
1-0 9.5%
0-0 9.1%
2-1 9.0%
2-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.6%	Under 2.5	52.4%
BTTS yes	53.2%	BTTS no	46.8%
Millwall 1+	76.4%	Millwall 2+	42.4%
Burnley 1+	67.7%	Burnley 2+	31.2%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

42/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Millwall over 2.5 corners

Home corners O/U

81.0% fair odds 1.24

moderate signal · 9943 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Millwall under 2.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 84%

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1396.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Millwall have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 27.9% for Burnley. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.45 for Millwall and 1.13 for Burnley.

Why Millwall

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1396.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Burnley can win

Nothing in the data singles out Burnley.

Key players

Burnley's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Zian Flemming (0.35), Jaidon Anthony (0.24), Marcus Edwards (0.15).

Availability

No lineup on record for Millwall, so availability is unknown. 1 of Burnley's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Millwall: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Burnley: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Millwall are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDLLLLLDLD last 10 scored 6 from 10.4 xG conceded 19 from 20.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432928	1.45–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	353134	1.18–1.15	1-1 15%	41%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to win	35.0%	36.3%	43.4%	0.84×	2.75
Burnley to win	33.7%	30.4%	29.1%	1.05×	3.29
Draw	31.3%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall & not both score	20.3%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.0%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.59
Burnley & not both score	19.4%	18.0%	15.2%	1.18×	5.56
Millwall & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	20.2%	0.66×	7.53
Burnley & both teams score	14.2%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.53
Draw & not both score	11.3%	13.3%	7.3%	1.82×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall & under 3.5	27.1%	26.1%	32.4%	0.80×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	26.1%	26.1%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.1%	26.1%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Burnley & under 3.5	26.1%	26.1%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Millwall & over 1.5	25.2%	26.1%	32.5%	0.80×	3.84
Burnley & over 1.5	24.1%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.0%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Millwall & over 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	26.4%	0.68×	5.56
Burnley & over 2.5	17.6%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.56
Millwall & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Burnley & under 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	12.9%	1.39×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	7.3%	1.76×	7.79
Millwall & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Burnley & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Millwall & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Burnley & over 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (1UP)	50.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Burnley (1UP)	49.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2UP)	35.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Burnley (2UP)	33.7%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Burnley to win 2nd half	30.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Millwall to win 2nd half	29.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.7%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Burnley under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Burnley over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Burnley over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.4%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Millwall under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Millwall over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Millwall over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.6%	11.7%	—	—	8.58

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (+2.5)	95.0%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Burnley (+1.5)	84.6%	82.6%	80.7%	1.02×	1.21
Millwall (+0.5)	66.3%	68.7%	70.9%	0.97×	1.46
Burnley (+0.5)	65.0%	63.0%	56.6%	1.11×	1.59
Millwall (-0.5)	35.0%	37.0%	43.4%	0.85×	2.70
Burnley (-0.5)	33.7%	31.3%	29.1%	1.08×	3.19
Millwall (-1.5)	15.4%	17.4%	19.3%	0.90×	5.74
Millwall (-2.5)	5.0%	7.9%	8.1%	0.97×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to concede	69.3%	72.4%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Burnley clean sheet	30.7%	27.6%	22.4%	1.23×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley clean sheet in 1st half	60.2%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Burnley to concede in 1st half	39.8%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley clean sheet in 2nd half	51.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Burnley to concede in 2nd half	49.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 6.5 corners	89.6%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Burnley under 5.5 corners	82.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Burnley under 4.5 corners	72.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Burnley over 2.5 corners	59.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Burnley under 3.5 corners	58.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Burnley over 3.5 corners	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Burnley under 2.5 corners	40.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Burnley over 4.5 corners	27.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Burnley over 5.5 corners	17.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Burnley over 6.5 corners	10.4%	14.7%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Burnley under 2.5 goals	89.0%	87.8%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Burnley over 0.5 goals	68.4%	68.0%	69.5%	0.98×	1.47
Burnley under 1.5 goals	68.0%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Burnley over 1.5 goals	32.0%	32.0%	30.0%	1.07×	3.13
Burnley under 0.5 goals	31.6%	32.0%	30.5%	1.05×	3.13
Burnley over 2.5 goals	11.0%	12.2%	9.4%	1.29×	8.21
Burnley over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	39.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Burnley under 0.5 in 1st half	63.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Burnley over 0.5 in 1st half	36.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Burnley over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	6.2%	—	—	16.10

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley scores equally in both	42.5%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Burnley scores more in 2nd half	36.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Burnley scores more in 1st half	21.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (away no bet)	52.8%	51.7%	61.1%	0.85×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	47.2%	48.3%	38.9%	1.24×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley even goals	55.0%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Burnley odd goals	45.0%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.0%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.0%	8.3%	—	—	12.00

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	55.6%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	44.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	47.4%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Millwall to score 2+ in a row	26.3%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Burnley to score 2+ in a row	25.3%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Millwall to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.5%	—	—	18.07
Burnley to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall corners (+3.5)	92.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Millwall corners (+2.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Millwall corners (+1.5)	81.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Burnley corners (+3.5)	66.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Burnley corners (+2.5)	57.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Millwall corners (-1.5)	53.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Burnley corners (+1.5)	46.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Millwall corners (-2.5)	42.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Millwall corners (-3.5)	33.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Burnley corners (-1.5)	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Burnley corners (-2.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Burnley corners (-3.5)	7.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	25.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	23.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 9.5 corners	60.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	39.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	23.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.8%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
0-0	11.3%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
0-1	9.6%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-0	9.9%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.51
1-2	7.6%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
2-0	6.8%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-2	6.4%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (2nd half DNB)	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Millwall (2nd half DNB)	49.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall leading at HT (DNB)	53.0%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Burnley leading at HT (DNB)	47.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or Burnley (12)	68.7%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Millwall or draw (1X)	66.3%	69.6%	70.9%	0.98×	1.44
Burnley or draw (X2)	65.0%	63.7%	56.6%	1.13×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw at HT	75.6%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Burnley or draw at HT	72.4%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Millwall or Burnley at HT	52.1%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw (1UP)	66.3%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Burnley or draw (1UP)	65.0%	71.7%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Millwall or draw in 2nd half	69.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Millwall or Burnley in 2nd half	60.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.1%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	32.9%	31.9%	—	—	3.14

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (DNB)	51.0%	50.9%	59.9%	0.85×	1.97
Burnley (DNB)	49.0%	49.1%	40.1%	1.23×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score first	44.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Burnley to score first	43.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	11.3%	9.6%	—	—	10.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.0%	51.3%	45.6%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.0%	48.7%	54.4%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.0%	41.6%	37.1%	1.12×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	34.2%	34.5%	39.9%	0.87×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	14.8%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.1%	8.3%	8.6%	0.96×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.4%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.6%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.0%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.0%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.4%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	11.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	3.6%	4.9%	—	—	20.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	15.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
A goal in each half	46.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	30.8%	30.7%	25.9%	1.19×	3.26
4-6 goals	19.7%	20.2%	22.4%	0.90×	4.95
7+ goals	1.0%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Burnley to score exactly 0	31.6%	33.8%	30.5%	1.11×	2.96
Burnley to score exactly 2	21.0%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Burnley to score 3+	11.0%	12.9%	9.4%	1.37×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.6%	37.0%	0.96×	2.81
Millwall to score exactly 0	30.7%	32.6%	22.4%	1.45×	3.07
Millwall to score exactly 2	21.4%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Millwall to score 3+	11.6%	14.3%	16.1%	0.89×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.9%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Millwall leading at HT	27.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Burnley leading at HT	24.4%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall -1: 2	65.0%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Millwall -1: X	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.70
Millwall -1: 1	15.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:1)	65.0%	61.4%	56.6%	1.09×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	24.2%	0.74×	5.60
Millwall (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:2)	84.6%	83.0%	80.7%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.4%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.11
Millwall (0:2)	5.0%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:3)	95.0%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	4.8%	0.50×	42.07
Millwall (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.06
Millwall (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (1:0)	66.3%	70.1%	70.9%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.1%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.84
Burnley (1:0)	14.5%	12.7%	11.7%	1.08×	7.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2:0)	85.5%	88.5%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.9%	6.4%	8.6%	0.75×	15.64
Burnley (2:0)	4.6%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.6%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Halves equal	29.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to concede	68.4%	66.7%	69.5%	0.96×	1.50
Millwall clean sheet	31.6%	33.3%	30.5%	1.09×	3.01

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 1st half	63.1%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Millwall to concede in 1st half	36.9%	36.7%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 2nd half	50.1%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Millwall to concede in 2nd half	49.9%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall over 2.5 corners	81.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Millwall over 3.5 corners	68.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Millwall under 6.5 corners	67.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Millwall under 5.5 corners	56.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Millwall over 4.5 corners	55.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Millwall under 4.5 corners	44.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Millwall over 5.5 corners	43.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Millwall over 6.5 corners	32.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Millwall under 3.5 corners	31.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Millwall under 2.5 corners	18.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 3.5 goals	96.8%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Millwall under 2.5 goals	88.4%	87.3%	83.9%	1.04×	1.15
Millwall over 0.5 goals	69.3%	68.0%	77.6%	0.88×	1.47
Millwall under 1.5 goals	67.0%	67.9%	59.4%	1.14×	1.47
Millwall over 1.5 goals	33.0%	32.1%	40.6%	0.79×	3.12
Millwall under 0.5 goals	30.7%	32.0%	22.4%	1.43×	3.12
Millwall over 2.5 goals	11.6%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.85
Millwall over 3.5 goals	3.2%	3.6%	5.2%	0.70×	27.53

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 1st half	90.8%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Millwall under 0.5 in 1st half	60.2%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Millwall over 0.5 in 1st half	39.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Millwall over 1.5 in 1st half	9.2%	5.4%	—	—	18.63

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall scores equally in both	42.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Millwall scores more in 2nd half	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Millwall scores more in 1st half	23.7%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (home no bet)	51.8%	51.4%	51.3%	1.00×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	48.2%	48.6%	48.7%	1.00×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall even goals	54.7%	50.7%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Millwall odd goals	45.3%	49.3%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
HT 1-0	19.0%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 0-1	17.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.41
HT 1-1	9.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
HT 2-0	4.9%	2.4%	—	—	41.89
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
Any other HT score	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Millwall at HT / Millwall at FT	20.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Burnley at HT / Burnley at FT	17.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Burnley at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Millwall at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Millwall at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Burnley at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Millwall at HT / Burnley at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Burnley at HT / Millwall at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score last	44.9%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
Burnley to score last	43.8%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	11.3%	9.0%	—	—	11.10

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.7%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Millwall to lead by 1 at any time	50.7%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Burnley to lead by 1 at any time	49.5%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	39.4%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Millwall to lead by 2 at any time	20.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Burnley to lead by 2 at any time	19.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Millwall to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Burnley to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	—	—	15.03

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall most corners	64.0%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Burnley most corners	26.3%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.0%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	68.2%	68.8%	72.8%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.0%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.1%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.5%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	47.5%	48.5%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	40.2%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.1%	39.2%	44.5%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	32.5%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	19.7%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.31
4-5 goals	17.5%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	7.8%	8.9%	8.2%	1.09×	11.27
7+ goals	1.0%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall never behind	39.2%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Burnley never behind	38.0%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.4%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.6%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.8%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	79.3%	77.3%	76.3%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	69.2%	66.3%	74.1%	0.90×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	58.8%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	41.2%	41.4%	48.4%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	30.8%	33.7%	25.9%	1.30×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	20.7%	22.7%	23.7%	0.96×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.2%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.0%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.6%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.1%	92.4%	89.0%	1.04×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.9%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.3%	55.8%	65.1%	0.86×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.7%	44.2%	34.9%	1.27×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	26.1%	27.6%	31.5%	0.88×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.9%	7.6%	11.0%	0.69×	13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.4%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.0%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.5%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.63

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.9%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.9%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.1%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.1%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley not to score in both halves	81.6%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Millwall not to score in both halves	80.5%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Millwall to score in both halves	19.5%	15.9%	—	—	6.29
Burnley to score in both halves	18.4%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.0%	50.7%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
Only Millwall scores	20.3%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.49
Only Burnley scores	19.4%	16.0%	15.2%	1.05×	6.23
Neither team scores	11.3%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.0%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.5%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.5%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.0%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	11.3%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.6%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.2%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
3+ goals in 1st half	7.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	26.1%	29.4%	—	—	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley not to win both halves	92.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Millwall not to win both halves	91.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Millwall to win both halves	8.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.99
Burnley to win both halves	7.7%	5.9%	—	—	17.04

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to win neither half	52.7%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Millwall to win neither half	51.3%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Millwall to win either half	48.7%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Burnley to win either half	47.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley not to win to nil	80.6%	83.1%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
Millwall not to win to nil	79.7%	78.1%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
Millwall to win to nil	20.3%	21.9%	23.3%	0.94×	4.57
Burnley to win to nil	19.4%	16.9%	15.2%	1.11×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	31.3%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61
Millwall by 1	19.6%	17.1%	24.2%	0.70×	5.86
Burnley by 1	19.1%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87
Millwall by 2	10.4%	11.7%	11.3%	1.04×	8.51
Burnley by 2	9.9%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.89
Millwall by 3+	5.0%	7.2%	8.1%	0.89×	13.92
Burnley by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.79