Millwall v Derby County — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Millwall

15:00 UTC

Derby County

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 172h before kick-off

Millwall win

49.3%

model 49.1%

Draw

27.7%

model 28.2%

Derby County win

23.0%

model 22.8%

492823

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.5%
1-0 10.5%
2-1 9.4%
2-0 9.4%
0-0 9.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.6%	Under 2.5	52.4%
BTTS yes	51.7%	BTTS no	48.3%
Millwall 1+	79.2%	Millwall 2+	46.6%
Derby County 1+	63.4%	Derby County 2+	26.6%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

48/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Millwall or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 71%

77.3% fair odds 1.29

moderate signal · 1708 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Derby County not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1427.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Millwall have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 23.0% for Derby County. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.57 for Millwall and 1.00 for Derby County.

Why Millwall

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1427.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Derby County can win

Nothing in the data singles out Derby County.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Millwall, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Millwall: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Derby County: 49% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Millwall's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Millwall are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	492823	1.57–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	473023	1.39–0.90	1-1 14%	40%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to win	46.6%	47.3%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
Draw	30.4%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
Derby County to win	23.0%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall & not both score	28.9%	25.2%	23.3%	1.08×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Millwall & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Derby County & not both score	13.3%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.6%	13.3%	7.3%	1.82×	7.54
Derby County & both teams score	9.6%	8.3%	13.9%	0.60×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall & under 3.5	35.5%	34.9%	32.4%	1.08×	2.87
Millwall & over 1.5	34.1%	30.8%	32.5%	0.95×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	25.9%	26.1%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.9%	26.1%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Millwall & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Millwall & under 2.5	22.2%	21.6%	17.1%	1.27×	4.63
Derby County & under 3.5	18.7%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Derby County & over 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Millwall & under 1.5	12.5%	12.8%	11.0%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.6%	12.8%	7.3%	1.76×	7.79
Derby County & under 2.5	11.8%	12.8%	12.9%	0.99×	7.79
Millwall & over 3.5	11.1%	12.8%	11.1%	1.15×	7.79
Derby County & over 2.5	11.2%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Derby County & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.6%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Derby County & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.8%	0.71×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (1UP)	60.1%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Derby County (1UP)	38.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2UP)	46.6%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
Derby County (2UP)	23.0%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Millwall to win 2nd half	37.6%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Derby County to win 2nd half	22.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.7%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Derby County under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Derby County over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Derby County over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.3%	13.1%	—	—	7.66

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Millwall over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Millwall under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Millwall over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	17.4%	—	—	5.75

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (+2.5)	91.2%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Millwall (+0.5)	77.0%	78.5%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Derby County (+1.5)	76.7%	78.5%	80.7%	0.97×	1.27
Derby County (+0.5)	53.4%	52.4%	56.6%	0.93×	1.91
Millwall (-0.5)	46.6%	47.6%	43.4%	1.10×	2.10
Millwall (-1.5)	23.3%	21.5%	19.3%	1.12×	4.65
Derby County (-0.5)	23.0%	21.5%	29.1%	0.74×	4.65
Millwall (-2.5)	8.8%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede	75.0%	78.7%	77.6%	1.02×	1.27
Derby County clean sheet	25.0%	21.3%	22.4%	0.95×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County clean sheet in 1st half	55.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Derby County to concede in 1st half	44.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede in 2nd half	54.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Derby County clean sheet in 2nd half	45.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County over 2.5 corners	80.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Derby County under 6.5 corners	68.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Derby County over 3.5 corners	67.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Derby County under 5.5 corners	57.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Derby County over 4.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Derby County under 4.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Derby County over 5.5 corners	42.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Derby County under 3.5 corners	32.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Derby County over 6.5 corners	31.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Derby County under 2.5 corners	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Derby County under 2.5 goals	93.6%	92.4%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Derby County under 1.5 goals	77.1%	76.2%	70.0%	1.09×	1.31
Derby County over 0.5 goals	59.5%	59.5%	69.5%	0.86×	1.68
Derby County under 0.5 goals	40.5%	40.5%	30.5%	1.33×	2.47
Derby County over 1.5 goals	22.9%	23.8%	30.0%	0.79×	4.21
Derby County over 2.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	9.4%	0.81×	13.07
Derby County over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Derby County under 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Derby County over 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Derby County over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County scores equally in both	48.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Derby County scores more in 2nd half	31.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Derby County scores more in 1st half	19.3%	18.2%	—	—	5.49

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (away no bet)	60.5%	61.9%	61.1%	1.01×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.5%	38.1%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County even goals	58.2%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Derby County odd goals	41.8%	43.1%	47.6%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.4%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.6%	8.2%	—	—	12.14

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	54.6%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Both halves under 1.5 goals	45.4%	49.0%	—	—	2.04

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	47.5%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Millwall to score 2+ in a row	34.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.43
Derby County to score 2+ in a row	17.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.3%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Millwall to score 3+ in a row	11.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Derby County to score 3+ in a row	3.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.58

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall corners (+3.5)	87.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Millwall corners (+2.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Millwall corners (+1.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Derby County corners (+3.5)	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Millwall corners (-1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Derby County corners (+2.5)	52.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Millwall corners (-2.5)	47.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Derby County corners (+1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Millwall corners (-3.5)	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Derby County corners (-1.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Derby County corners (-2.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Derby County corners (-3.5)	12.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	57.9%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	21.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
0-8 corners	20.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	85.6%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Over 8.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	72.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 10.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 11.5 corners	57.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 12.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 12.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 11.5 corners	42.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 10.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 9.5 corners	27.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 8.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Under 7.5 corners	14.4%	17.0%	—	—	5.90

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.2%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
1-0	12.5%	11.5%	11.0%	1.04×	8.72
0-0	11.6%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
2-0	9.7%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-1	7.6%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	5.7%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	4.1%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.32
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.29
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2nd half DNB)	62.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Derby County (2nd half DNB)	37.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall leading at HT (DNB)	65.2%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Derby County leading at HT (DNB)	34.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw (1X)	77.0%	75.5%	70.9%	1.06×	1.32
Millwall or Derby County (12)	69.6%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Derby County or draw (X2)	53.4%	52.7%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw at HT	81.8%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Derby County or draw at HT	65.8%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Millwall or Derby County at HT	52.4%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw (1UP)	77.0%	83.7%	—	—	1.19
Derby County or draw (1UP)	53.4%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw in 2nd half	77.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Derby County or draw in 2nd half	62.4%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Millwall or Derby County in 2nd half	60.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.0%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.0%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (DNB)	67.0%	67.4%	59.9%	1.12×	1.49
Derby County (DNB)	33.0%	32.6%	40.1%	0.81×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score first	53.5%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Derby County to score first	34.9%	27.9%	—	—	3.58
No goal scored	11.6%	9.7%	—	—	10.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.8%	51.3%	45.6%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	46.2%	48.7%	54.4%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	45.6%	44.3%	37.1%	1.19×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	32.0%	34.5%	39.9%	0.86×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	14.2%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.8%	89.0%	89.0%	1.00×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.2%	11.0%	11.0%	1.00×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Both score 2nd half only	20.3%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	3.1%	4.9%	—	—	20.47

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.1%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.9%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
A goal in each half	46.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.4%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	31.8%	30.7%	25.9%	1.19×	3.26
4-6 goals	19.0%	20.2%	22.4%	0.90×	4.95
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.44

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score exactly 0	40.5%	37.3%	30.5%	1.22×	2.68
Derby County to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Derby County to score exactly 2	16.5%	19.6%	20.6%	0.95×	5.11
Derby County to score 3+	6.4%	8.5%	9.4%	0.91×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score exactly 1	34.7%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Millwall to score exactly 0	25.0%	23.3%	22.4%	1.04×	4.29
Millwall to score exactly 2	24.0%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Millwall to score 3+	16.3%	18.7%	16.1%	1.16×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.6%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Millwall leading at HT	34.2%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Derby County leading at HT	18.2%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall -1: 2	53.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Millwall -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Millwall -1: 1	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:1)	53.4%	51.3%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Millwall (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	19.3%	1.26×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:2)	76.7%	79.4%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.5%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.09
Millwall (0:2)	8.8%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:3)	91.2%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.1%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.25
Millwall (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:4)	97.3%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.95
Millwall (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (1:0)	77.0%	78.6%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.7%	12.7%	17.4%	0.73×	7.86
Derby County (1:0)	8.3%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2:0)	91.7%	94.0%	88.3%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.2%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.68
Derby County (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.1%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Halves equal	30.1%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to concede	59.5%	60.7%	69.5%	0.87×	1.65
Millwall clean sheet	40.5%	39.3%	30.5%	1.29×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 1st half	69.7%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Millwall to concede in 1st half	30.3%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 2nd half	58.1%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Millwall to concede in 2nd half	41.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall over 2.5 corners	91.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Millwall over 3.5 corners	84.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Millwall over 4.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Millwall over 5.5 corners	65.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Millwall over 6.5 corners	56.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Millwall under 6.5 corners	44.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Millwall under 5.5 corners	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Millwall under 4.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Millwall under 3.5 corners	15.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Millwall under 2.5 corners	8.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 3.5 goals	94.8%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Millwall under 2.5 goals	83.7%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Millwall over 0.5 goals	75.0%	77.7%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Millwall under 1.5 goals	59.6%	58.6%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Millwall over 1.5 goals	40.4%	41.4%	40.6%	1.02×	2.42
Millwall under 0.5 goals	25.0%	22.3%	22.4%	0.99×	4.49
Millwall over 2.5 goals	16.3%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.63
Millwall over 3.5 goals	5.2%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 1st half	87.9%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Millwall under 0.5 in 1st half	55.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Millwall over 0.5 in 1st half	44.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Millwall over 1.5 in 1st half	12.1%	9.8%	—	—	10.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall scores equally in both	38.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
Millwall scores more in 2nd half	36.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Millwall scores more in 1st half	25.0%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.0%	56.4%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Derby County (home no bet)	43.0%	43.6%	51.3%	0.85×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall even goals	53.1%	50.7%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Millwall odd goals	46.9%	49.3%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
HT 1-0	22.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	8.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 2-0	6.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
Any other HT score	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall at HT / Millwall at FT	27.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Millwall at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Derby County at HT / Derby County at FT	11.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Derby County at FT	9.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.37
Millwall at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Derby County at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Derby County at HT / Millwall at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Millwall at HT / Derby County at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score last	53.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Derby County to score last	34.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	11.6%	9.1%	—	—	10.98

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.4%	91.4%	—	—	1.09
Millwall to lead by 1 at any time	60.1%	61.2%	—	—	1.64
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Derby County to lead by 1 at any time	38.9%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Millwall to lead by 2 at any time	28.3%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Derby County to lead by 2 at any time	12.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Millwall to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Derby County to lead by 3 at any time	2.9%	1.6%	—	—	62.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall most corners	63.1%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Derby County most corners	29.6%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	7.4%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
1-3 goals	68.5%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-6 goals	67.3%	68.8%	72.8%	0.95×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.3%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.0%	59.1%	64.7%	0.91×	1.69
2-3 goals	48.4%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	48.2%	48.5%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	39.2%	39.2%	47.2%	0.83×	2.55
3-5 goals	37.2%	39.2%	44.5%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.9%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	19.0%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.31
4-5 goals	16.9%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	7.4%	8.9%	8.2%	1.09×	11.27
7+ goals	0.9%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall never behind	49.5%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Derby County never behind	28.3%	30.1%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.4%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.6%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.9%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.1%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.4%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	80.1%	82.3%	76.3%	1.08×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	68.2%	66.3%	74.1%	0.90×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	59.8%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	40.2%	41.4%	48.4%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	31.8%	33.7%	25.9%	1.30×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	19.9%	17.7%	23.7%	0.75×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.9%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.9%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.6%	92.4%	89.0%	1.04×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	75.1%	75.9%	68.5%	1.11×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	55.8%	55.8%	65.1%	0.86×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	44.2%	44.2%	34.9%	1.27×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	24.9%	24.1%	31.5%	0.77×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.4%	7.6%	11.0%	0.69×	13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.1%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.58
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.9%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.65

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.0%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.0%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to score in both halves	87.3%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Millwall not to score in both halves	75.5%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Millwall to score in both halves	24.5%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Derby County to score in both halves	12.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.91

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.2%	50.7%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
Only Millwall scores	28.9%	26.0%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Only Derby County scores	13.3%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.06
Neither team scores	11.6%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.1%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	20.1%	22.6%	18.7%	1.21×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	20.3%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 0 goals	11.6%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	11.6%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.3%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.15
6 or more goals	2.9%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	17.9%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
3+ goals in 1st half	7.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	39.0%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
1 goal in 2nd half	34.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	26.9%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to win both halves	95.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Millwall not to win both halves	86.9%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Millwall to win both halves	13.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Derby County to win both halves	4.2%	2.8%	—	—	35.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to win neither half	63.6%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Millwall to win either half	58.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Millwall to win neither half	41.4%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Derby County to win either half	36.4%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to win to nil	86.7%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Millwall not to win to nil	71.1%	75.3%	76.7%	0.98×	1.33
Millwall to win to nil	28.9%	24.7%	23.3%	1.06×	4.05
Derby County to win to nil	13.3%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.4%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61
Millwall by 1	23.3%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Derby County by 1	14.7%	11.8%	17.4%	0.68×	8.51
Millwall by 2	14.5%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.51
Millwall by 3+	8.8%	7.2%	8.1%	0.89×	13.90
Derby County by 2	6.2%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Derby County by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.87