Mingəçevir v Cəbrayıl — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 17 September 2026 · AZE-First Division · 2627

AZE-First Division results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Mingəçevir

12:30 UTC

Cəbrayıl

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 193h before kick-off

Mingəçevir win

73.8%

model 74.4%

Draw

18.1%

model 15.8%

Cəbrayıl win

8.2%

model 9.8%

74188

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (960 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 9.2%
2-1 8.9%
3-0 8.5%
3-1 8.2%
1-1 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	71.9%	Under 2.5	28.1%
BTTS yes	58.5%	BTTS no	41.5%
Mingəçevir 1+	93.7%	Mingəçevir 2+	76.3%
Cəbrayıl 1+	61.7%	Cəbrayıl 2+	25.0%

Expected goals 2.77 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

27/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Mingəçevir over 2.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 20%

52.8% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 7998 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cəbrayıl (0:4)

Handicap 0:4 · usually 96%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mingəçevir have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Cəbrayıl have allowed 1.35.
At home Mingəçevir average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Mingəçevir have only 0 matches on record.
Cəbrayıl have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mingəçevir have an estimated 73.8% win probability, against 18.1% for the draw and 8.2% for Cəbrayıl. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.77 for Mingəçevir and 0.96 for Cəbrayıl.

Why Mingəçevir

Mingəçevir have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Cəbrayıl have allowed 1.35. At home Mingəçevir average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.1%.

Why Cəbrayıl can win

Cəbrayıl have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Mingəçevir have allowed 1.35. Away from home Cəbrayıl average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Mingəçevir, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cəbrayıl, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mingəçevir: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cəbrayıl: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Mingəçevir are the model's most likely outcome at 73.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.2%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	741610	2.77–0.96	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	761410	3.06–1.10	3-1 8%	78%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to win	74.4%	73.0%	44.4%	1.64×	1.37
Draw	15.8%	17.9%	25.0%	0.72×	5.60
Cəbrayıl to win	9.8%	8.1%	30.6%	0.26×	12.37

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir & both teams score	39.1%	36.2%	20.1%	1.81×	2.76
Mingəçevir & not both score	35.3%	36.2%	24.4%	1.48×	2.77
Draw & both teams score	12.8%	12.7%	17.7%	0.72×	7.88
Cəbrayıl & both teams score	6.5%	7.6%	14.6%	0.52×	13.08
Cəbrayıl & not both score	3.3%	4.2%	16.0%	0.26×	23.93
Draw & not both score	3.0%	4.2%	7.3%	0.57×	23.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir & over 1.5	68.3%	66.0%	34.1%	1.94×	1.52
Mingəçevir & over 2.5	59.1%	57.2%	26.9%	2.13×	1.75
Mingəçevir & over 3.5	41.7%	42.9%	14.2%	3.03×	2.33
Mingəçevir & under 3.5	32.7%	31.8%	30.3%	1.05×	3.15
Mingəçevir & under 2.5	15.3%	17.7%	17.5%	1.01×	5.64
Draw & over 1.5	12.8%	12.4%	17.7%	0.70×	8.06
Draw & under 2.5	10.1%	12.4%	18.8%	0.66×	8.06
Draw & under 3.5	10.1%	12.4%	18.8%	0.66×	8.06
Mingəçevir & under 1.5	6.1%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.21
Cəbrayıl & over 1.5	8.1%	7.6%	23.1%	0.33×	13.21
Cəbrayıl & over 2.5	7.0%	7.6%	18.4%	0.41×	13.21
Cəbrayıl & under 3.5	6.2%	7.6%	21.6%	0.35×	13.21
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.21
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.21
Draw & under 1.5	3.0%	4.4%	7.3%	0.60×	22.79
Cəbrayıl & under 2.5	2.8%	4.4%	12.2%	0.36×	22.80
Cəbrayıl & over 3.5	3.6%	4.4%	9.0%	0.49×	22.79
Cəbrayıl & under 1.5	1.7%	4.4%	7.5%	0.58×	22.80

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (1UP)	84.3%	86.1%	59.8%	1.44×	1.16
Cəbrayıl (1UP)	29.1%	26.2%	50.4%	0.52×	3.82

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (2UP)	74.4%	75.5%	45.2%	1.67×	1.33
Cəbrayıl (2UP)	9.8%	8.5%	34.2%	0.25×	11.76

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to win 2nd half	61.6%	63.4%	37.7%	1.68×	1.58
2nd half drawn	25.3%	28.3%	32.7%	0.86×	3.54
Cəbrayıl to win 2nd half	13.1%	13.4%	29.7%	0.45×	7.46

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.6%	86.0%	82.3%	1.04×	1.16
Cəbrayıl under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.8%	46.6%	1.18×	1.82
Cəbrayıl over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.2%	53.4%	0.85×	2.21
Cəbrayıl over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.4%	14.0%	17.7%	0.79×	7.12

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	78.3%	58.7%	1.34×	1.28
Mingəçevir under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.3%	54.2%	77.4%	0.70×	1.85
Mingəçevir over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.7%	45.8%	22.6%	2.03×	2.18
Mingəçevir under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	21.7%	41.4%	0.52×	4.61

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (+0.5)	90.2%	92.3%	69.4%	1.33×	1.08
Mingəçevir (-0.5)	74.4%	73.3%	44.4%	1.65×	1.36
Cəbrayıl (+2.5)	66.1%	67.9%	90.1%	0.75×	1.47
Mingəçevir (-1.5)	54.6%	51.8%	22.3%	2.33×	1.93
Cəbrayıl (+1.5)	45.4%	48.2%	77.7%	0.62×	2.08
Mingəçevir (-2.5)	33.9%	32.1%	9.9%	3.23×	3.12
Cəbrayıl (+0.5)	25.6%	26.7%	55.6%	0.48×	3.75
Cəbrayıl (-0.5)	9.8%	7.7%	30.6%	0.25×	12.96

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl to concede	93.7%	92.7%	76.7%	1.21×	1.08
Cəbrayıl clean sheet	6.3%	7.3%	23.3%	0.31×	13.79

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl to concede in 1st half	69.5%	69.5%	48.2%	1.44×	1.44
Cəbrayıl clean sheet in 1st half	30.5%	30.5%	51.8%	0.59×	3.28

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl to concede in 2nd half	79.3%	80.1%	58.7%	1.37×	1.25
Cəbrayıl clean sheet in 2nd half	20.7%	19.9%	41.4%	0.48×	5.02

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.3%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Cəbrayıl under 2.5 goals	92.7%	92.2%	87.0%	1.06×	1.09
Cəbrayıl under 1.5 goals	75.1%	76.4%	66.3%	1.15×	1.31
Cəbrayıl over 0.5 goals	61.7%	63.6%	68.3%	0.93×	1.57
Cəbrayıl under 0.5 goals	38.3%	36.4%	31.7%	1.15×	2.75
Cəbrayıl over 1.5 goals	24.9%	23.6%	33.7%	0.70×	4.23
Cəbrayıl over 2.5 goals	7.3%	7.8%	13.0%	0.61×	12.75
Cəbrayıl over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.7%	4.3%	0.62×	37.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl under 1.5 in 1st half	94.3%	93.9%	89.4%	1.05×	1.07
Cəbrayıl under 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	67.9%	59.0%	1.15×	1.47
Cəbrayıl over 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	32.1%	41.0%	0.78×	3.12
Cəbrayıl over 1.5 in 1st half	5.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.58×	16.31

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl scores equally in both	47.2%	45.6%	40.6%	1.12×	2.20
Cəbrayıl scores more in 2nd half	32.9%	33.3%	36.5%	0.91×	3.00
Cəbrayıl scores more in 1st half	19.8%	17.3%	22.9%	0.76×	5.76

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (away no bet)	82.5%	82.1%	64.0%	1.28×	1.22
Draw (away no bet)	17.5%	17.9%	36.0%	0.50×	5.58

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl even goals	57.3%	56.4%	55.7%	1.01×	1.77
Cəbrayıl odd goals	42.7%	43.6%	44.3%	0.99×	2.29

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	70.5%	71.7%	82.7%	0.87×	1.40
Both halves over 1.5 goals	29.5%	28.3%	17.3%	1.64×	3.53

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.7%	78.8%	66.2%	1.19×	1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.3%	21.2%	33.8%	0.63×	4.71

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	76.1%	73.7%	58.6%	1.26×	1.36
Mingəçevir to score 2+ in a row	69.3%	64.8%	36.9%	1.76×	1.54
Either team to score 3+ in a row	42.9%	42.7%	22.9%	1.87×	2.34
Mingəçevir to score 3+ in a row	40.7%	42.6%	14.2%	3.00×	2.35
Cəbrayıl to score 2+ in a row	14.7%	12.9%	28.6%	0.45×	7.74
Cəbrayıl to score 3+ in a row	2.7%	3.1%	9.1%	0.34×	32.05

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	14.8%	11.2%	4.1%	2.76×	8.91
1-0	6.1%	7.4%	10.4%	0.72×	13.45
1-1	7.0%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.45
2-0	9.2%	7.4%	7.2%	1.04×	13.45
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.45
3-0	8.5%	7.4%	3.9%	1.90×	13.45
3-1	8.2%	7.4%	4.2%	1.78×	13.45
4-0	5.9%	7.4%	1.8%	4.23×	13.45
4-1	5.6%	7.4%	1.7%	4.47×	13.45
0-0	3.0%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.34
0-1	1.7%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.34
0-2	1.1%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.35
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.35
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.35
1-2	3.1%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.34
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.35
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.35
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.34
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.34
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.89×	58.35
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.34
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.34
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.65×	58.35
4-2	2.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.87×	58.34
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.4%	4.62×	58.35
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	16.16×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (2nd half DNB)	82.4%	82.1%	55.9%	1.47×	1.22
Cəbrayıl (2nd half DNB)	17.6%	17.9%	44.1%	0.41×	5.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir leading at HT (DNB)	82.7%	81.0%	56.7%	1.43×	1.24
Cəbrayıl leading at HT (DNB)	17.3%	19.0%	43.3%	0.44×	5.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir or draw (1X)	90.2%	91.9%	69.4%	1.32×	1.09
Mingəçevir or Cəbrayıl (12)	84.2%	82.1%	75.0%	1.09×	1.22
Cəbrayıl or draw (X2)	25.6%	27.0%	55.6%	0.49×	3.70

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir or draw at HT	88.2%	87.3%	74.1%	1.18×	1.15
Mingəçevir or Cəbrayıl at HT	68.4%	67.2%	59.7%	1.13×	1.49
Cəbrayıl or draw at HT	43.4%	38.6%	66.2%	0.58×	2.59

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir or draw (1UP)	90.2%	94.0%	74.2%	1.27×	1.06
Cəbrayıl or draw (1UP)	29.1%	29.4%	63.9%	0.46×	3.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir or draw in 2nd half	86.9%	86.6%	70.3%	1.23×	1.16
Mingəçevir or Cəbrayıl in 2nd half	74.7%	71.7%	67.3%	1.07×	1.39
Cəbrayıl or draw in 2nd half	38.4%	36.6%	62.3%	0.59×	2.74

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	51.9%	52.1%	41.1%	1.27×	1.92
A half drawn	48.1%	47.9%	58.9%	0.81×	2.09

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (DNB)	88.4%	88.5%	59.2%	1.49×	1.13
Cəbrayıl (DNB)	11.6%	11.5%	40.8%	0.28×	8.66

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to score first	72.0%	79.9%	51.2%	1.56×	1.25
Cəbrayıl to score first	25.0%	17.3%	42.9%	0.40×	5.79
No goal scored	3.0%	4.7%	5.9%	0.79×	21.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.4%	55.4%	52.4%	1.06×	1.81
Not both teams to score	41.6%	44.7%	47.6%	0.94×	2.24

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.4%	48.5%	40.9%	1.19×	2.06
Not both score & under 2.5	21.1%	25.0%	37.1%	0.67×	4.00
Not both score & over 2.5	20.4%	25.0%	10.6%	2.36×	4.00
Both score & under 2.5	7.0%	8.4%	11.5%	0.74×	11.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.0%	83.0%	86.0%	0.97×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.0%	17.0%	14.0%	1.21×	5.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.1%	69.2%	70.2%	0.99×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.9%	30.8%	29.8%	1.03×	3.25

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.5%	54.9%	57.8%	0.95×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	27.2%	25.9%	23.8%	1.09×	3.86
Both score 1st half only	14.6%	11.9%	12.5%	0.96×	8.40
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.9%	6.0%	1.15×	14.45

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.7%	79.7%	81.5%	0.98×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	22.3%	20.3%	18.5%	1.10×	4.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	70.3%	69.7%	58.9%	1.18×	1.43
A half without a goal	29.7%	30.3%	41.1%	0.74×	3.30

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.8%	43.6%	27.0%	1.62×	2.29
2-3 goals	38.2%	35.3%	45.4%	0.78×	2.83
0-1 goals	10.8%	14.9%	25.2%	0.59×	6.71
7+ goals	8.3%	6.6%	2.4%	2.74×	15.07

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl to score exactly 0	38.3%	36.0%	31.7%	1.14×	2.78
Cəbrayıl to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Cəbrayıl to score exactly 2	17.6%	18.2%	20.8%	0.88×	5.49
Cəbrayıl to score 3+	7.3%	8.6%	13.0%	0.66×	11.64

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to score 3+	52.1%	52.3%	19.7%	2.65×	1.91
Mingəçevir to score exactly 2	24.1%	22.9%	24.0%	0.95×	4.38
Mingəçevir to score exactly 1	17.4%	18.1%	33.1%	0.55×	5.51
Mingəçevir to score exactly 0	6.3%	8.9%	23.3%	0.38×	11.28

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir leading at HT	56.6%	61.4%	33.8%	1.82×	1.63
Draw at HT	31.6%	32.8%	40.3%	0.81×	3.05
Cəbrayıl leading at HT	11.8%	12.7%	25.9%	0.49×	7.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir -1: 1	54.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Mingəçevir -1: 2	25.6%	26.8%	—	—	3.74
Mingəçevir -1: X	19.8%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (0:1)	54.6%	51.7%	22.3%	2.32×	1.93
Cəbrayıl (0:1)	25.6%	27.2%	55.6%	0.49×	3.68
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	18.2%	22.2%	0.82×	5.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl (0:2)	45.4%	49.2%	77.7%	0.63×	2.03
Mingəçevir (0:2)	33.9%	31.6%	9.9%	3.18×	3.16
Draw (0:2)	20.6%	20.5%	12.3%	1.66×	4.88

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl (0:3)	66.1%	69.2%	90.1%	0.77×	1.45
Mingəçevir (0:3)	18.0%	16.2%	4.0%	4.00×	6.18
Draw (0:3)	15.9%	16.1%	5.9%	2.74×	6.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl (0:4)	82.0%	84.1%	96.0%	0.88×	1.19
Draw (0:4)	9.8%	6.7%	2.5%	2.66×	14.83
Mingəçevir (0:4)	8.2%	6.7%	1.5%	4.45×	14.86

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (1:0)	90.2%	92.3%	69.4%	1.33×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	6.5%	7.5%	17.0%	0.44×	13.40
Cəbrayıl (1:0)	3.3%	3.4%	13.6%	0.25×	29.04

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir (2:0)	96.7%	96.6%	86.4%	1.12×	1.04
Draw (2:0)	2.5%	2.8%	8.1%	0.34×	35.91
Cəbrayıl (2:0)	0.8%	2.8%	5.4%	0.51×	35.94

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.5%	52.8%	48.6%	1.09×	1.89
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.2%	26.3%	1.00×	3.82
Halves equal	21.7%	23.2%	25.2%	0.92×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to concede	61.7%	65.0%	68.3%	0.95×	1.54
Mingəçevir clean sheet	38.3%	35.0%	31.7%	1.10×	2.86

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir clean sheet in 1st half	68.1%	67.5%	59.0%	1.14×	1.48
Mingəçevir to concede in 1st half	31.9%	32.5%	41.0%	0.79×	3.08

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir clean sheet in 2nd half	56.2%	54.6%	46.6%	1.17×	1.83
Mingəçevir to concede in 2nd half	43.8%	45.4%	53.4%	0.85×	2.20

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir over 0.5 goals	93.7%	92.4%	76.7%	1.20×	1.08
Mingəçevir over 1.5 goals	76.2%	78.2%	43.7%	1.79×	1.28
Mingəçevir under 3.5 goals	70.1%	73.1%	92.4%	0.79×	1.37
Mingəçevir over 2.5 goals	52.1%	52.8%	19.7%	2.68×	1.89
Mingəçevir under 2.5 goals	47.9%	47.2%	80.3%	0.59×	2.12
Mingəçevir over 3.5 goals	29.9%	26.9%	7.6%	3.54×	3.71
Mingəçevir under 1.5 goals	23.8%	21.8%	56.3%	0.39×	4.58
Mingəçevir under 0.5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	23.3%	0.33×	13.07

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir over 0.5 in 1st half	69.5%	69.3%	48.2%	1.44×	1.44
Mingəçevir under 1.5 in 1st half	66.7%	69.0%	85.9%	0.80×	1.45
Mingəçevir over 1.5 in 1st half	33.3%	31.0%	14.1%	2.19×	3.23
Mingəçevir under 0.5 in 1st half	30.5%	30.7%	51.8%	0.59×	3.25

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir scores more in 2nd half	46.3%	48.7%	38.0%	1.28×	2.05
Mingəçevir scores more in 1st half	28.8%	27.8%	24.9%	1.12×	3.59
Mingəçevir scores equally in both	25.0%	23.2%	37.1%	0.63×	4.31

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	61.8%	60.2%	44.9%	1.34×	1.66
Cəbrayıl (home no bet)	38.2%	39.8%	55.1%	0.72×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir even goals	50.2%	50.9%	52.8%	0.96×	1.96
Mingəçevir odd goals	49.8%	49.1%	47.2%	1.04×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	24.6%	22.5%	20.7%	1.09×	4.44
HT 0-0	20.9%	22.5%	29.3%	0.77×	4.45
HT 2-0	14.7%	11.0%	7.1%	1.54×	9.13
Any other HT score	12.4%	10.9%	4.7%	2.32×	9.15
HT 1-1	9.6%	8.0%	10.2%	0.78×	12.52
HT 0-1	7.9%	8.0%	16.3%	0.49×	12.54
HT 2-1	5.6%	8.0%	3.3%	2.43×	12.56
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	40.50
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.5%	4.9%	0.50×	40.51
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.5%	0.9%	2.76×	40.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir at HT / Mingəçevir at FT	51.7%	56.3%	25.8%	2.18×	1.78
Draw at HT / Mingəçevir at FT	19.0%	17.3%	14.7%	1.18×	5.77
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.8%	6.5%	14.1%	0.46×	15.44
Cəbrayıl at HT / Cəbrayıl at FT	4.9%	3.6%	17.4%	0.21×	27.50
Mingəçevir at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.6%	5.1%	0.71×	27.53
Draw at HT / Cəbrayıl at FT	3.8%	3.6%	11.6%	0.31×	27.53
Cəbrayıl at HT / Mingəçevir at FT	3.6%	3.6%	2.9%	1.25×	27.53
Cəbrayıl at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.6%	5.6%	0.65×	27.54
Mingəçevir at HT / Cəbrayıl at FT	1.1%	3.6%	3.0%	1.22×	27.61

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to score last	72.1%	72.4%	51.4%	1.41×	1.38
Cəbrayıl to score last	24.9%	24.3%	42.7%	0.57×	4.12
No goal scored	3.0%	4.7%	5.9%	0.79×	21.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.0%	95.4%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Mingəçevir to lead by 1 at any time	84.3%	86.7%	59.8%	1.45×	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	68.4%	69.0%	48.2%	1.43×	1.45
Mingəçevir to lead by 2 at any time	61.5%	63.3%	28.2%	2.24×	1.58
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	39.6%	37.4%	19.5%	1.92×	2.67
Mingəçevir to lead by 3 at any time	38.0%	37.4%	12.1%	3.09×	2.68
Cəbrayıl to lead by 1 at any time	29.1%	25.0%	50.4%	0.50×	3.99
Cəbrayıl to lead by 2 at any time	7.4%	7.4%	20.3%	0.37×	13.48
Cəbrayıl to lead by 3 at any time	1.6%	2.6%	7.4%	0.35×	38.51

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	81.0%	82.1%	72.4%	1.13×	1.22
1-5 goals	79.7%	77.9%	86.4%	0.90×	1.28
2-5 goals	72.0%	72.2%	68.5%	1.05×	1.39
1-4 goals	65.3%	68.2%	78.0%	0.88×	1.47
3-6 goals	63.6%	62.7%	49.0%	1.28×	1.60
2-4 goals	57.6%	58.9%	60.1%	0.98×	1.70
3-5 goals	54.6%	52.9%	45.1%	1.17×	1.89
1-3 goals	45.9%	47.4%	63.3%	0.75×	2.11
4-6 goals	42.8%	43.6%	27.0%	1.62×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	36.8%	1.18×	2.30
2-3 goals	38.2%	39.0%	45.4%	0.86×	2.56
4-5 goals	33.8%	34.7%	23.0%	1.51×	2.88
1-2 goals	25.1%	28.5%	41.2%	0.69×	3.51
5-6 goals	23.4%	23.7%	12.3%	1.93×	4.22
7+ goals	8.3%	8.9%	2.4%	3.68×	11.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir never behind	67.9%	71.4%	49.6%	1.44×	1.40
Cəbrayıl never behind	12.7%	11.2%	40.2%	0.28×	8.90

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	51.3%	50.1%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Odd number of goals	48.7%	49.9%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.6%	53.7%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.4%	46.3%	1.05×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.6%	51.1%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.4%	48.9%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.0%	96.0%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Over 1.5 goals	89.2%	87.8%	74.8%	1.17×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	82.8%	81.6%	93.7%	0.87×	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	71.8%	72.4%	51.5%	1.41×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	68.4%	67.7%	85.3%	0.79×	1.48
Over 3.5 goals	51.0%	51.8%	29.4%	1.76×	1.93
Under 3.5 goals	49.0%	48.2%	70.6%	0.68×	2.08
Over 4.5 goals	31.6%	32.3%	14.7%	2.20×	3.09
Under 2.5 goals	28.2%	27.6%	48.5%	0.57×	3.62
Over 5.5 goals	17.2%	18.4%	6.3%	2.90×	5.44
Under 1.5 goals	10.8%	12.2%	25.2%	0.48×	8.21
Under 0.5 goals	3.0%	4.0%	7.3%	0.54×	25.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	90.9%	92.0%	97.5%	0.94×	1.09
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.9%	86.6%	67.1%	1.29×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	79.9%	76.0%	93.1%	0.82×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.4%	62.3%	37.7%	1.65×	1.60
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	60.8%	62.3%	82.8%	0.75×	1.61
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	39.2%	37.7%	17.2%	2.19×	2.65
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.6%	37.7%	62.3%	0.60×	2.65
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	20.1%	24.0%	6.9%	3.47×	4.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.1%	13.4%	32.9%	0.41×	7.48
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.1%	8.0%	2.5%	3.17×	12.51

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	79.1%	78.0%	70.7%	1.10×	1.28
Under 2.5 in 1st half	79.1%	78.0%	88.4%	0.88×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	53.3%	50.8%	66.3%	0.77×	1.97
Over 1.5 in 1st half	46.7%	49.2%	33.7%	1.46×	2.03
Over 2.5 in 1st half	20.9%	22.0%	11.6%	1.89×	4.55
Under 0.5 in 1st half	20.9%	22.0%	29.3%	0.75×	4.55

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.1%	85.2%	82.3%	1.04×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	63.7%	58.7%	77.5%	0.76×	1.71
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	63.5%	58.7%	49.8%	1.18×	1.71
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	36.5%	41.3%	50.2%	0.82×	2.42
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	41.3%	22.5%	1.83×	2.42
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.9%	14.8%	17.7%	0.84×	6.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl not to score in both halves	86.0%	85.5%	77.6%	1.10×	1.17
Mingəçevir to score in both halves	55.1%	59.7%	29.5%	2.02×	1.68
Mingəçevir not to score in both halves	44.9%	40.3%	70.5%	0.57×	2.48
Cəbrayıl to score in both halves	14.0%	14.5%	22.4%	0.64×	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.4%	57.9%	52.4%	1.11×	1.73
Only Mingəçevir scores	35.3%	39.4%	24.4%	1.62×	2.54
Only Cəbrayıl scores	3.3%	4.0%	16.0%	0.25×	24.70
Neither team scores	3.0%	4.0%	7.3%	0.55×	24.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.8%	22.3%	22.1%	1.01×	4.49
Exactly 4 goals	19.4%	17.6%	14.7%	1.20×	5.68
Exactly 2 goals	17.4%	17.6%	23.3%	0.75×	5.68
6 or more goals	17.2%	17.6%	6.3%	2.78×	5.68
Exactly 5 goals	14.4%	12.3%	8.4%	1.47×	8.14
Exactly 1 goals	7.7%	7.8%	17.9%	0.43×	12.88
Exactly 0 goals	3.0%	4.0%	7.3%	0.55×	24.74

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	32.4%	34.4%	37.0%	0.93×	2.91
2 goals in 1st half	25.8%	25.7%	22.2%	1.16×	3.89
3+ goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.6%	11.6%	1.86×	4.64
No goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.6%	29.3%	0.74×	4.64

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	63.5%	55.7%	49.8%	1.12×	1.80
1 goal in 2nd half	24.6%	20.6%	32.5%	0.63×	4.85
No goals in 2nd half	11.9%	13.9%	17.7%	0.78×	7.21

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl not to win both halves	98.4%	97.3%	91.8%	1.06×	1.03
Mingəçevir not to win both halves	65.0%	65.2%	86.8%	0.75×	1.53
Mingəçevir to win both halves	35.0%	34.8%	13.2%	2.63×	2.88
Cəbrayıl to win both halves	1.6%	2.7%	8.2%	0.33×	37.48

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir to win either half	83.1%	83.0%	58.3%	1.42×	1.21
Cəbrayıl to win neither half	76.6%	80.8%	52.6%	1.53×	1.24
Cəbrayıl to win either half	23.4%	19.2%	47.4%	0.41×	5.20
Mingəçevir to win neither half	16.9%	17.0%	41.7%	0.41×	5.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cəbrayıl not to win to nil	96.7%	96.2%	84.0%	1.14×	1.04
Mingəçevir not to win to nil	64.7%	63.5%	75.6%	0.84×	1.58
Mingəçevir to win to nil	35.3%	36.5%	24.4%	1.50×	2.74
Cəbrayıl to win to nil	3.3%	3.8%	16.0%	0.24×	26.27

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mingəçevir by 3+	33.9%	29.2%	9.9%	2.94×	3.42
Mingəçevir by 2	20.6%	23.4%	12.3%	1.90×	4.27
Mingəçevir by 1	19.8%	17.2%	22.2%	0.78×	5.80
Draw	15.8%	17.2%	25.0%	0.69×	5.80
Cəbrayıl by 1	6.5%	7.3%	17.0%	0.43×	13.77
Cəbrayıl by 2	2.5%	3.0%	8.1%	0.37×	33.46
Cəbrayıl by 3+	0.8%	3.0%	5.4%	0.55×	33.48