Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627
USA-MLS
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.1%
- 1-0 11.3%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 0-0 8.9%
- 2-0 8.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 45.3% | Under 2.5 | 54.7% |
| BTTS yes | 50.2% | BTTS no | 49.8% |
| Minnesota United FC 1+ | 76.0% | Minnesota United FC 2+ | 41.7% |
| Houston Dynamo 1+ | 65.4% | Houston Dynamo 2+ | 28.6% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Minnesota United FC.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Minnesota United FC have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 28.5% for the draw and 28.5% for Houston Dynamo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Minnesota United FC and 1.06 for Houston Dynamo.
Why Minnesota United FC
Nothing in the data singles out Minnesota United FC.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Houston Dynamo can win
Houston Dynamo carry the stronger rating, 1552 Elo against 1513. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Minnesota United FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Houston Dynamo, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Minnesota United FC: 43% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Houston Dynamo: 49% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Minnesota United FC are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.24–1.07 | 1-1 14% | 41% | 47% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.