Minnesota United FC v LA Galaxy — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Minnesota United FC

00:30 UTC

LA Galaxy

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 10 Sep, 11:32 · 229h before kick-off

Minnesota United FC win

54.0%

model 54.2%

Draw

23.0%

model 24.2%

LA Galaxy win

23.0%

model 21.6%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (425 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.5%
1-0 10.1%
2-1 9.8%
2-0 9.4%
0-0 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.6%	Under 2.5	46.4%
BTTS yes	54.3%	BTTS no	45.7%
Minnesota United FC 1+	83.1%	Minnesota United FC 2+	53.1%
LA Galaxy 1+	64.7%	LA Galaxy 2+	28.0%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

LA Galaxy under 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 61%

72.0% fair odds 1.39

moderate signal · 1108 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Minnesota United FC carry the stronger rating, 1513 Elo against 1429.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Minnesota United FC have an estimated 54.0% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 23.0% for LA Galaxy. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.78 for Minnesota United FC and 1.04 for LA Galaxy.

Why Minnesota United FC

Minnesota United FC carry the stronger rating, 1513 Elo against 1429.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why LA Galaxy can win

Nothing in the data singles out LA Galaxy.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Minnesota United FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for LA Galaxy, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Minnesota United FC: 43% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. LA Galaxy: 46% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Minnesota United FC's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Minnesota United FC are the model's most likely outcome at 54.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542422	1.78–1.04	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	552521	1.74–0.98	1-1 12%	51%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to win	54.9%	51.5%	45.4%	1.14×	1.94
Draw	24.6%	24.5%	24.9%	0.99×	4.08
LA Galaxy to win	20.6%	24.5%	29.9%	0.82×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC & not both score	30.6%	29.6%	21.1%	1.41×	3.37
Minnesota United FC & both teams score	24.3%	21.9%	24.4%	0.90×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.5%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
LA Galaxy & not both score	10.4%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54
LA Galaxy & both teams score	10.1%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.1%	8.4%	5.8%	1.43×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC & over 1.5	43.8%	40.3%	37.1%	1.09×	2.48
Minnesota United FC & under 3.5	36.6%	34.8%	28.3%	1.23×	2.87
Minnesota United FC & over 2.5	33.8%	30.8%	30.9%	1.00×	3.24
Minnesota United FC & under 2.5	21.0%	21.6%	14.5%	1.48×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.8%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Minnesota United FC & over 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
LA Galaxy & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
LA Galaxy & over 1.5	14.6%	12.9%	23.5%	0.55×	7.76
LA Galaxy & over 2.5	11.4%	12.9%	20.3%	0.64×	7.76
Minnesota United FC & under 1.5	11.0%	12.9%	8.4%	1.54×	7.76
LA Galaxy & under 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.8%	1.35×	12.65
LA Galaxy & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.65
LA Galaxy & over 3.5	4.9%	4.8%	11.2%	0.43×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (1UP)	68.2%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
LA Galaxy (1UP)	38.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (2UP)	54.9%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
LA Galaxy (2UP)	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to win 2nd half	44.2%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	34.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
LA Galaxy to win 2nd half	21.0%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
LA Galaxy under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.7%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
LA Galaxy over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
LA Galaxy over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	13.3%	—	—	7.54

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.9%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Minnesota United FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.9%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Minnesota United FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Minnesota United FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.1%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy (+2.5)	86.2%	88.5%	89.5%	0.99×	1.13
Minnesota United FC (+0.5)	79.4%	78.4%	70.1%	1.12×	1.28
LA Galaxy (+1.5)	69.1%	68.7%	76.7%	0.90×	1.46
Minnesota United FC (-0.5)	54.9%	52.4%	45.4%	1.16×	1.91
LA Galaxy (+0.5)	45.1%	47.6%	54.6%	0.87×	2.10
Minnesota United FC (-1.5)	30.9%	31.3%	23.3%	1.35×	3.20
LA Galaxy (-0.5)	20.6%	21.6%	29.9%	0.72×	4.64
Minnesota United FC (-2.5)	13.8%	11.5%	10.5%	1.09×	8.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy to concede	82.5%	81.3%	82.0%	0.99×	1.23
LA Galaxy clean sheet	17.5%	18.7%	18.0%	1.04×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy clean sheet in 1st half	47.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
LA Galaxy to concede in 1st half	52.7%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy to concede in 2nd half	62.9%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
LA Galaxy clean sheet in 2nd half	37.1%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy over 2.5 corners	78.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
LA Galaxy under 6.5 corners	77.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
LA Galaxy under 5.5 corners	66.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
LA Galaxy over 3.5 corners	62.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
LA Galaxy under 4.5 corners	52.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
LA Galaxy over 4.5 corners	47.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
LA Galaxy under 3.5 corners	37.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
LA Galaxy over 5.5 corners	33.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
LA Galaxy under 2.5 corners	21.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
LA Galaxy over 6.5 corners	22.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.5%	93.9%	1.04×	1.03
LA Galaxy under 2.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
LA Galaxy under 1.5 goals	74.5%	71.9%	61.3%	1.17×	1.39
LA Galaxy over 0.5 goals	62.3%	63.1%	73.2%	0.86×	1.59
LA Galaxy under 0.5 goals	37.7%	36.9%	26.8%	1.38×	2.71
LA Galaxy over 1.5 goals	25.5%	28.1%	38.7%	0.73×	3.56
LA Galaxy over 2.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	16.7%	0.46×	13.00
LA Galaxy over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.5%	6.1%	0.41×	40.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
LA Galaxy under 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
LA Galaxy over 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
LA Galaxy over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	5.8%	—	—	17.36

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy scores equally in both	46.8%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
LA Galaxy scores more in 2nd half	33.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
LA Galaxy scores more in 1st half	20.0%	18.1%	—	—	5.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (away no bet)	69.1%	66.4%	64.6%	1.03×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.9%	33.6%	35.4%	0.95×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy even goals	57.1%	56.9%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
LA Galaxy odd goals	42.9%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.3%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.7%	12.4%	—	—	8.05

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.8%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Minnesota United FC to score 2+ in a row	44.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Minnesota United FC to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
LA Galaxy to score 2+ in a row	17.9%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
LA Galaxy to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.23

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC corners (+3.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Minnesota United FC corners (+2.5)	80.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
LA Galaxy corners (+3.5)	76.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Minnesota United FC corners (+1.5)	72.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
LA Galaxy corners (+2.5)	68.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
LA Galaxy corners (+1.5)	58.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Minnesota United FC corners (-1.5)	41.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Minnesota United FC corners (-2.5)	31.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
LA Galaxy corners (-1.5)	27.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Minnesota United FC corners (-3.5)	23.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
LA Galaxy corners (-2.5)	19.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
LA Galaxy corners (-3.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	37.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	27.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	25.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.7%	11.4%	10.3%	1.11×	8.74
1-0	11.0%	11.4%	8.4%	1.37×	8.74
2-0	10.0%	11.4%	6.3%	1.82×	8.74
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.50
0-0	7.1%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.50
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	6.5%	1.13×	13.50
1-2	5.5%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.50
3-0	5.8%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.50
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	4.9%	1.50×	13.50
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.29
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.30
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.14×	58.32
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.32
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.50×	58.32
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.30
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.14×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.74×	58.32
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (2nd half DNB)	67.8%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
LA Galaxy (2nd half DNB)	32.2%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC leading at HT (DNB)	69.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
LA Galaxy leading at HT (DNB)	30.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC or draw (1X)	79.4%	75.5%	70.1%	1.08×	1.32
Minnesota United FC or LA Galaxy (12)	75.4%	75.5%	75.1%	1.00×	1.33
LA Galaxy or draw (X2)	45.1%	48.5%	54.6%	0.89×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC or draw at HT	82.6%	84.4%	—	—	1.18
LA Galaxy or draw at HT	59.6%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Minnesota United FC or LA Galaxy at HT	57.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC or draw (1UP)	79.4%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
LA Galaxy or draw (1UP)	45.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC or draw in 2nd half	79.0%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Minnesota United FC or LA Galaxy in 2nd half	65.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
LA Galaxy or draw in 2nd half	55.8%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.8%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	38.2%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (DNB)	72.7%	71.5%	60.3%	1.19×	1.40
LA Galaxy (DNB)	27.3%	28.5%	39.7%	0.72×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to score first	59.5%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
LA Galaxy to score first	33.4%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	7.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.9%	51.3%	61.1%	0.84×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.1%	48.7%	38.9%	1.25×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.2%	41.6%	50.9%	0.82×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	37.2%	38.5%	29.9%	1.29×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	12.3%	10.3%	1.20×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	9.2%	1.34×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.7%	85.6%	79.5%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.3%	14.4%	20.5%	0.70×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.6%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.3%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.8%	5.1%	—	—	19.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.9%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.2%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	45.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.3%	42.5%	1.11×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.8%	26.6%	33.1%	0.80×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.1%	22.8%	20.5%	1.11×	4.38
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	54.68

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy to score exactly 0	37.7%	36.0%	26.8%	1.34×	2.78
LA Galaxy to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
LA Galaxy to score exactly 2	17.9%	19.6%	22.1%	0.89×	5.10
LA Galaxy to score 3+	7.6%	8.5%	16.7%	0.51×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to score exactly 1	30.5%	32.6%	31.0%	1.05×	3.07
Minnesota United FC to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Minnesota United FC to score 3+	25.4%	26.5%	25.2%	1.05×	3.78
Minnesota United FC to score exactly 0	17.5%	18.9%	18.0%	1.05×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.32
Minnesota United FC leading at HT	40.4%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
LA Galaxy leading at HT	17.4%	15.6%	—	—	6.42

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC -1: 2	45.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Minnesota United FC -1: 1	30.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Minnesota United FC -1: X	24.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy (0:1)	45.1%	45.9%	54.6%	0.84×	2.18
Minnesota United FC (0:1)	30.9%	29.9%	23.3%	1.29×	3.34
Draw (0:1)	24.0%	24.3%	22.2%	1.09×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy (0:2)	69.1%	72.3%	76.7%	0.94×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	17.0%	15.3%	12.8%	1.19×	6.56
Minnesota United FC (0:2)	13.8%	10.9%	10.5%	1.04×	9.16

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy (0:3)	86.2%	90.8%	89.5%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.7%	5.8%	6.6%	0.87×	17.26
Minnesota United FC (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	4.0%	1.44×	17.32

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy (0:4)	94.9%	94.7%	96.0%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.34
Minnesota United FC (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (1:0)	79.4%	78.5%	70.1%	1.12×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.2%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.83
LA Galaxy (1:0)	7.3%	6.9%	13.2%	0.53×	14.41

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC (2:0)	92.7%	93.9%	86.8%	1.08×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.52
LA Galaxy (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	4.6%	0.50×	43.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to concede	62.3%	63.6%	73.2%	0.87×	1.57
Minnesota United FC clean sheet	37.7%	36.4%	26.8%	1.36×	2.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC clean sheet in 1st half	67.7%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Minnesota United FC to concede in 1st half	32.3%	31.1%	—	—	3.21

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC clean sheet in 2nd half	55.7%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Minnesota United FC to concede in 2nd half	44.3%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC over 2.5 corners	84.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Minnesota United FC over 3.5 corners	71.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Minnesota United FC under 6.5 corners	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Minnesota United FC over 4.5 corners	57.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Minnesota United FC under 5.5 corners	56.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Minnesota United FC over 5.5 corners	43.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Minnesota United FC under 4.5 corners	42.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Minnesota United FC over 6.5 corners	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Minnesota United FC under 3.5 corners	28.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Minnesota United FC under 2.5 corners	15.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC under 3.5 goals	90.1%	92.2%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Minnesota United FC over 0.5 goals	82.5%	82.1%	82.0%	1.00×	1.22
Minnesota United FC under 2.5 goals	74.6%	74.3%	74.8%	0.99×	1.35
Minnesota United FC over 1.5 goals	51.9%	53.2%	51.1%	1.04×	1.88
Minnesota United FC under 1.5 goals	48.1%	46.8%	48.9%	0.96×	2.14
Minnesota United FC over 2.5 goals	25.4%	25.7%	25.2%	1.02×	3.88
Minnesota United FC under 0.5 goals	17.5%	17.9%	18.0%	1.00×	5.58
Minnesota United FC over 3.5 goals	9.9%	7.8%	9.4%	0.83×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC under 1.5 in 1st half	82.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Minnesota United FC under 0.5 in 1st half	47.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Minnesota United FC over 0.5 in 1st half	52.7%	49.2%	—	—	2.04
Minnesota United FC over 1.5 in 1st half	17.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Minnesota United FC scores equally in both	33.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Minnesota United FC scores more in 1st half	26.7%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.5%	51.5%	45.4%	1.13×	1.94
LA Galaxy (home no bet)	45.5%	48.5%	54.6%	0.89×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC even goals	51.5%	50.6%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Minnesota United FC odd goals	48.5%	49.4%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	23.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	12.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 2-0	9.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
Any other HT score	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.57
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC at HT / Minnesota United FC at FT	33.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Draw at HT / Minnesota United FC at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
LA Galaxy at HT / LA Galaxy at FT	10.4%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / LA Galaxy at FT	8.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Minnesota United FC at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
LA Galaxy at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
LA Galaxy at HT / Minnesota United FC at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Minnesota United FC at HT / LA Galaxy at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to score last	59.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
LA Galaxy to score last	33.3%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
No goal scored	7.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.9%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Minnesota United FC to lead by 1 at any time	68.2%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.6%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
LA Galaxy to lead by 1 at any time	38.1%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Minnesota United FC to lead by 2 at any time	37.1%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Minnesota United FC to lead by 3 at any time	16.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
LA Galaxy to lead by 2 at any time	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
LA Galaxy to lead by 3 at any time	2.9%	1.6%	—	—	61.54

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC most corners	52.2%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
LA Galaxy most corners	37.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.0%	78.6%	73.1%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.8%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.1%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.9%	63.4%	57.2%	1.11×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.4%	58.4%	1.08×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.9%	48.6%	55.9%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.6%	42.5%	1.14×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.2%	48.6%	48.9%	0.99×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.9%	43.6%	34.4%	1.27×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.1%	39.2%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.8%	30.3%	33.1%	0.91×	3.30
4-5 goals	23.2%	24.5%	26.1%	0.94×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.8%	14.9%	17.2%	0.86×	6.73
7+ goals	2.1%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC never behind	54.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
LA Galaxy never behind	24.7%	24.6%	—	—	4.07

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.8%	50.8%	50.2%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.2%	49.2%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.2%	92.2%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.9%	92.2%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.0%	87.6%	78.8%	1.11×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.9%	77.4%	79.5%	0.97×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.0%	72.5%	62.9%	1.15×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.0%	52.6%	59.9%	0.88×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	49.0%	47.4%	40.1%	1.18×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.0%	27.5%	37.1%	0.74×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.1%	22.6%	20.5%	1.10×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	14.0%	12.4%	21.2%	0.58×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.1%	7.8%	5.8%	1.33×	12.87
Over 5.5 goals	5.8%	7.8%	11.1%	0.70×	12.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.7%	92.4%	87.6%	1.05×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.6%	81.0%	74.8%	1.08×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.0%	67.5%	74.5%	0.91×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.8%	61.9%	51.9%	1.19×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.2%	38.1%	48.1%	0.79×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.0%	32.5%	25.5%	1.28×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.4%	19.0%	25.2%	0.75×	5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.3%	7.6%	12.4%	0.61×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	4.4%	0.63×	35.86

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.2%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.4%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.9%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.1%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.6%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy not to score in both halves	85.7%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Minnesota United FC not to score in both halves	66.8%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Minnesota United FC to score in both halves	33.2%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
LA Galaxy to score in both halves	14.3%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.9%	53.9%	61.1%	0.88×	1.86
Only Minnesota United FC scores	30.6%	33.3%	21.1%	1.58×	3.01
Only LA Galaxy scores	10.4%	11.0%	12.3%	0.90×	9.11
Neither team scores	7.1%	7.2%	5.8%	1.23×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.9%	22.6%	19.7%	1.15×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.0%	17.4%	14.8%	1.18×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	17.4%	16.0%	1.09×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.1%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.08
6 or more goals	5.8%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.09

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	32.1%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	10.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	20.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy not to win both halves	96.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Minnesota United FC not to win both halves	82.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Minnesota United FC to win both halves	17.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
LA Galaxy to win both halves	3.7%	2.8%	—	—	35.69

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Minnesota United FC to win either half	66.6%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
LA Galaxy to win neither half	65.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
LA Galaxy to win either half	34.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Minnesota United FC to win neither half	33.4%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
LA Galaxy not to win to nil	89.6%	88.2%	87.7%	1.00×	1.13
Minnesota United FC not to win to nil	69.4%	69.8%	78.9%	0.88×	1.43
Minnesota United FC to win to nil	30.6%	30.2%	21.1%	1.43×	3.31
LA Galaxy to win to nil	10.4%	11.8%	12.3%	0.97×	8.45

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.6%	24.2%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Minnesota United FC by 1	24.0%	24.2%	22.2%	1.09×	4.14
Minnesota United FC by 2	17.0%	16.9%	12.8%	1.32×	5.91
Minnesota United FC by 3+	13.8%	11.8%	10.5%	1.12×	8.49
LA Galaxy by 1	13.2%	11.8%	16.8%	0.70×	8.49
LA Galaxy by 2	5.4%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.82
LA Galaxy by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	4.6%	0.59×	36.69