Mito Hollyhock v Kawasaki Frontale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Mito Hollyhock

0–1

09:00 UTC

Kawasaki Frontale

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 21h before kick-off

Mito Hollyhock win

30.6%

model 33.2%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.1%

Kawasaki Frontale win

46.1%

model 42.7%

312346

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (568 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-2 9.0%
0-1 8.4%
2-1 7.7%
1-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.7%	Under 2.5	43.3%
BTTS yes	59.2%	BTTS no	40.8%
Mito Hollyhock 1+	74.6%	Mito Hollyhock 2+	39.8%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+	79.5%	Kawasaki Frontale 2+	47.1%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Kawasaki Frontale (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 42%

56.9% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 3547 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Mito Hollyhock not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 75%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 12208 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Kawasaki Frontale carry the stronger rating, 1501 Elo against 1454.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Kawasaki Frontale have an estimated 46.1% win probability, against 30.6% for Mito Hollyhock and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Mito Hollyhock and 1.59 for Kawasaki Frontale.

Why Mito Hollyhock

Nothing in the data singles out Mito Hollyhock.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.37 to 1.59. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kawasaki Frontale can win

Kawasaki Frontale carry the stronger rating, 1501 Elo against 1454.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Mito Hollyhock, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kawasaki Frontale, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mito Hollyhock: 37% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kawasaki Frontale: 53% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Kawasaki Frontale are the model's most likely outcome at 46.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	332443	1.37–1.59	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	352440	1.43–1.54	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	362340	1.53–1.63	1-1 10%	61%	63%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	312445	1.30–1.63	1-1 11%	56%	58%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to win	40.4%	42.9%	31.0%	1.38×	2.33
Mito Hollyhock to win	36.2%	36.2%	42.9%	0.84×	2.76
Draw	23.3%	24.6%	26.3%	0.94×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale & both teams score	22.9%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.59
Mito Hollyhock & both teams score	20.7%	21.8%	18.0%	1.21×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.55
Kawasaki Frontale & not both score	17.5%	18.0%	17.7%	1.02×	5.55
Mito Hollyhock & not both score	15.5%	18.0%	25.0%	0.72×	5.55
Draw & not both score	4.1%	4.9%	7.1%	0.69×	20.35

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale & over 1.5	33.4%	31.0%	21.2%	1.46×	3.22
Mito Hollyhock & over 1.5	29.6%	26.0%	30.2%	0.86×	3.85
Kawasaki Frontale & over 2.5	27.7%	25.9%	17.9%	1.45×	3.85
Mito Hollyhock & over 2.5	24.6%	21.6%	23.1%	0.94×	4.63
Kawasaki Frontale & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
Mito Hollyhock & under 3.5	22.3%	21.6%	33.1%	0.65×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.57
Kawasaki Frontale & over 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	7.8%	2.32×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	14.6%	12.9%	20.4%	0.63×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	14.6%	12.9%	20.4%	0.63×	7.78
Mito Hollyhock & over 3.5	14.0%	12.9%	10.0%	1.29×	7.78
Kawasaki Frontale & under 2.5	12.7%	12.9%	13.3%	0.97×	7.78
Mito Hollyhock & under 2.5	11.6%	12.9%	19.9%	0.64×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	8.7%	8.0%	6.0%	1.32×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	8.7%	8.0%	6.0%	1.32×	12.57
Mito Hollyhock & under 1.5	6.6%	8.0%	12.8%	0.62×	12.57
Kawasaki Frontale & under 1.5	7.0%	8.0%	10.0%	0.80×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.9%	7.1%	0.68×	20.58

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (1UP)	58.8%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Mito Hollyhock (1UP)	55.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (2UP)	40.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Mito Hollyhock (2UP)	36.2%	37.1%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to win 2nd half	36.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
2nd half drawn	32.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Mito Hollyhock to win 2nd half	31.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.5%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.3%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.7%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.5%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.3%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Mito Hollyhock over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.2%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Mito Hollyhock under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.8%	41.1%	—	—	2.44
Mito Hollyhock over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.7%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (+2.5)	93.3%	92.1%	93.8%	0.98×	1.09
Kawasaki Frontale (+1.5)	82.6%	82.6%	82.0%	1.01×	1.21
Kawasaki Frontale (+0.5)	63.8%	63.1%	57.1%	1.10×	1.59
Mito Hollyhock (+0.5)	59.6%	57.0%	69.0%	0.83×	1.76
Kawasaki Frontale (-0.5)	40.4%	43.0%	31.0%	1.39×	2.33
Mito Hollyhock (-0.5)	36.2%	36.9%	42.9%	0.86×	2.71
Mito Hollyhock (-1.5)	17.4%	17.4%	18.0%	0.96×	5.75
Mito Hollyhock (-2.5)	6.7%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede	78.3%	78.8%	75.3%	1.05×	1.27
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet	21.7%	21.2%	24.7%	0.86×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede in 1st half	48.2%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet in 1st half	51.8%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to concede in 2nd half	58.2%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet in 2nd half	41.8%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 6.5 corners	87.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Kawasaki Frontale under 5.5 corners	78.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 corners	70.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Kawasaki Frontale under 4.5 corners	65.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Kawasaki Frontale over 3.5 corners	51.8%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Kawasaki Frontale under 3.5 corners	48.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Kawasaki Frontale over 4.5 corners	34.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Kawasaki Frontale under 2.5 corners	29.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Kawasaki Frontale over 5.5 corners	21.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Kawasaki Frontale over 6.5 corners	12.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 3.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 goals	80.3%	81.2%	68.0%	1.19×	1.23
Kawasaki Frontale under 2.5 goals	77.6%	76.1%	87.8%	0.87×	1.31
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 goals	51.6%	53.5%	68.2%	0.79×	1.87
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 goals	48.4%	46.5%	31.8%	1.46×	2.15
Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 goals	22.4%	23.9%	12.2%	1.96×	4.19
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 goals	19.7%	18.8%	32.0%	0.59×	5.33
Kawasaki Frontale over 3.5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	4.1%	1.90×	12.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale under 1.5 in 1st half	86.1%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Kawasaki Frontale under 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Kawasaki Frontale over 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Kawasaki Frontale over 1.5 in 1st half	13.9%	11.1%	—	—	9.01

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale scores more in 2nd half	42.1%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Kawasaki Frontale scores equally in both	34.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Kawasaki Frontale scores more in 1st half	23.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (away no bet)	60.8%	62.0%	62.0%	1.00×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	39.2%	38.0%	38.0%	1.00×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale even goals	51.9%	52.8%	54.4%	0.97×	1.90
Kawasaki Frontale odd goals	48.1%	47.2%	45.6%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.3%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.7%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.0%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.0%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.0%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Kawasaki Frontale to score 2+ in a row	37.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Mito Hollyhock to score 2+ in a row	34.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Kawasaki Frontale to score 3+ in a row	13.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Mito Hollyhock to score 3+ in a row	11.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock corners (+3.5)	90.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Mito Hollyhock corners (+2.5)	84.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+3.5)	80.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Mito Hollyhock corners (+1.5)	75.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+2.5)	71.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Kawasaki Frontale corners (+1.5)	60.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Mito Hollyhock corners (-1.5)	40.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Mito Hollyhock corners (-2.5)	28.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-1.5)	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Mito Hollyhock corners (-3.5)	19.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-2.5)	16.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Kawasaki Frontale corners (-3.5)	9.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
9-11 corners	28.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.6%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	35.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	25.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	17.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.5%	11.4%	13.4%	0.84×	8.80
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.53
0-1	7.0%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.53
1-0	6.6%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.53
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.53
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.42×	13.53
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	3.5%	2.12×	13.53
2-0	5.0%	1.7%	7.3%	0.24×	57.65
0-0	4.1%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	57.66
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.55×	57.66
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	57.67
1-3	4.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	57.66
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	57.67
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	57.66
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.65×	57.67
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	57.67
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	57.66
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	57.66
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	57.67
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	57.68
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	57.67
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.65×	57.67
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	57.67
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	57.68
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	57.68
Any other score	4.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.55×	57.66

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (2nd half DNB)	54.1%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Mito Hollyhock (2nd half DNB)	45.9%	46.6%	—	—	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock leading at HT (DNB)	50.4%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Kawasaki Frontale leading at HT (DNB)	49.6%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock or Kawasaki Frontale (12)	76.7%	75.4%	73.7%	1.02×	1.33
Kawasaki Frontale or draw (X2)	63.8%	63.8%	57.1%	1.12×	1.57
Mito Hollyhock or draw (1X)	59.6%	57.1%	69.0%	0.83×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock or draw at HT	70.1%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Kawasaki Frontale or draw at HT	69.7%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Mito Hollyhock or Kawasaki Frontale at HT	60.2%	62.0%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale or draw (1UP)	63.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Mito Hollyhock or draw (1UP)	59.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale or draw in 2nd half	68.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Mito Hollyhock or Kawasaki Frontale in 2nd half	67.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Mito Hollyhock or draw in 2nd half	63.3%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (DNB)	52.7%	50.0%	42.0%	1.19×	2.00
Mito Hollyhock (DNB)	47.3%	50.0%	58.0%	0.86×	2.00

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score first	49.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Mito Hollyhock to score first	46.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.8%	56.6%	50.5%	1.12×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.2%	43.4%	49.5%	0.88×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.4%	47.2%	37.2%	1.27×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.4%	33.3%	40.0%	0.83×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	12.3%	13.4%	0.91×	8.16
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.4%	9.7%	0.87×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.1%	79.9%	86.2%	0.93×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	21.9%	20.1%	13.8%	1.46×	4.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.8%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.1%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	27.9%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Both score 1st half only	14.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	8.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.72

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.4%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	38.6%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.4%	41.9%	47.2%	0.89×	2.39
4-6 goals	34.6%	30.9%	21.0%	1.47×	3.23
0-1 goals	17.8%	20.2%	29.6%	0.68×	4.95
7+ goals	4.2%	1.9%	2.5%	0.73×	53.81

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 1	32.0%	33.7%	36.4%	0.92×	2.97
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 2	26.0%	27.6%	19.8%	1.40×	3.62
Kawasaki Frontale to score 3+	22.4%	22.5%	12.2%	1.85×	4.45
Kawasaki Frontale to score exactly 0	19.7%	19.5%	32.0%	0.61×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to score exactly 1	33.1%	32.6%	36.4%	0.90×	3.06
Mito Hollyhock to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.2%	24.4%	1.07×	3.82
Mito Hollyhock to score exactly 0	21.7%	23.3%	24.7%	0.95×	4.28
Mito Hollyhock to score 3+	19.9%	19.2%	14.9%	1.29×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.8%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Mito Hollyhock leading at HT	30.3%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Kawasaki Frontale leading at HT	29.9%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale -1: 1	59.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Kawasaki Frontale -1: 2	20.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Kawasaki Frontale -1: X	20.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:1)	63.8%	61.5%	57.1%	1.08×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.63
Mito Hollyhock (0:1)	17.4%	17.7%	18.0%	0.98×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:2)	82.6%	83.1%	82.0%	1.01×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	10.6%	10.8%	12.0%	0.90×	9.23
Mito Hollyhock (0:2)	6.7%	7.7%	6.2%	1.25×	13.01

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:3)	93.3%	92.7%	93.8%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	4.3%	0.55×	42.26
Mito Hollyhock (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	2.1%	1.15×	42.36

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	97.9%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	81.66
Mito Hollyhock (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	0.8%	1.55×	81.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (1:0)	59.6%	58.5%	69.0%	0.85×	1.71
Kawasaki Frontale (1:0)	20.3%	21.7%	11.9%	1.83×	4.60
Draw (1:0)	20.1%	21.7%	19.3%	1.13×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (2:0)	79.7%	80.0%	88.1%	0.91×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	12.0%	10.4%	6.0%	1.73×	9.62
Kawasaki Frontale (2:0)	8.3%	6.6%	6.0%	1.09×	15.25

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	22.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to concede	80.3%	80.8%	68.0%	1.19×	1.24
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	19.7%	19.2%	32.0%	0.60×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet in 1st half	52.2%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Mito Hollyhock to concede in 1st half	47.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to concede in 2nd half	62.3%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet in 2nd half	37.7%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock over 2.5 corners	79.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Mito Hollyhock under 6.5 corners	79.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Mito Hollyhock under 5.5 corners	67.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Mito Hollyhock over 3.5 corners	63.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Mito Hollyhock under 4.5 corners	53.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Mito Hollyhock over 4.5 corners	46.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Mito Hollyhock under 3.5 corners	36.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Mito Hollyhock over 5.5 corners	32.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Mito Hollyhock under 2.5 corners	20.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Mito Hollyhock over 6.5 corners	20.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.1%	94.9%	0.97×	1.09
Mito Hollyhock under 2.5 goals	80.1%	81.9%	85.1%	0.96×	1.22
Mito Hollyhock over 0.5 goals	78.3%	77.4%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Mito Hollyhock under 1.5 goals	54.8%	52.8%	60.9%	0.87×	1.90
Mito Hollyhock over 1.5 goals	45.2%	47.2%	39.1%	1.21×	2.12
Mito Hollyhock under 0.5 goals	21.7%	22.6%	24.7%	0.91×	4.43
Mito Hollyhock over 2.5 goals	19.9%	18.1%	14.9%	1.22×	5.53
Mito Hollyhock over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.71

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock under 1.5 in 1st half	85.9%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Mito Hollyhock over 0.5 in 1st half	48.2%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Mito Hollyhock under 0.5 in 1st half	51.8%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Mito Hollyhock over 1.5 in 1st half	14.1%	10.3%	—	—	9.71

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock scores more in 2nd half	38.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mito Hollyhock scores equally in both	36.0%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Mito Hollyhock scores more in 1st half	25.8%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale (home no bet)	63.4%	60.0%	54.1%	1.11×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.6%	40.0%	45.9%	0.87×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock even goals	52.3%	50.4%	52.4%	0.96×	1.98
Mito Hollyhock odd goals	47.7%	49.6%	47.6%	1.04×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 1-0	17.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 0-1	17.6%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-1	11.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	5.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 0-2	5.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
Any other HT score	5.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.61

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT	22.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Mito Hollyhock at HT / Mito Hollyhock at FT	21.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT	14.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Mito Hollyhock at FT	12.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Mito Hollyhock at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
Mito Hollyhock at HT / Kawasaki Frontale at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Kawasaki Frontale at HT / Mito Hollyhock at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.82

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to score last	49.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Mito Hollyhock to score last	46.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.9%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 1 at any time	58.8%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Mito Hollyhock to lead by 1 at any time	55.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 2 at any time	27.9%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Mito Hollyhock to lead by 2 at any time	24.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Kawasaki Frontale to lead by 3 at any time	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Mito Hollyhock to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	15.02

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock most corners	52.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Kawasaki Frontale most corners	35.5%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	12.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.8%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.0%	78.5%	68.0%	1.15×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.7%	72.3%	81.8%	0.88×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.3%	65.0%	1.11×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.2%	59.3%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.1%	59.3%	69.6%	0.85×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.9%	59.3%	44.3%	1.34×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.1%	53.4%	41.3%	1.29×	1.87
2-3 goals	43.4%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.9%	39.3%	35.6%	1.10×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.8%	35.3%	46.4%	0.76×	2.83
4-6 goals	34.6%	35.3%	21.0%	1.68×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.7%	30.6%	18.0%	1.70×	3.27
5-6 goals	17.0%	18.8%	8.9%	2.13×	5.31
7+ goals	4.2%	2.6%	2.5%	1.02×	38.89

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale never behind	40.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Mito Hollyhock never behind	37.1%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	51.0%	46.8%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.0%	53.2%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	95.4%	92.9%	1.03×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.0%	87.5%	94.5%	0.93×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.2%	82.2%	70.4%	1.17×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.8%	77.2%	88.8%	0.87×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	61.2%	62.0%	76.6%	0.81×	1.61
Over 2.5 goals	61.1%	61.9%	46.7%	1.33×	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.9%	38.1%	53.3%	0.71×	2.63
Over 3.5 goals	38.8%	38.1%	23.4%	1.62×	2.63
Over 4.5 goals	21.2%	22.8%	11.2%	2.03×	4.39
Under 1.5 goals	17.8%	17.8%	29.6%	0.60×	5.61
Over 5.5 goals	10.0%	12.5%	5.5%	2.26×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.6%	7.1%	0.65×	21.75

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.5%	97.2%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.7%	86.6%	94.1%	0.92×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.4%	75.9%	61.2%	1.24×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.3%	72.3%	87.2%	0.83×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.1%	52.3%	69.5%	0.75×	1.91
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.9%	47.7%	30.5%	1.56×	2.10
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.7%	27.7%	12.8%	2.17×	3.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.6%	24.1%	38.8%	0.62×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.3%	13.4%	5.9%	2.28×	7.48
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.5%	2.9%	2.6%	1.09×	35.08

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.5%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.0%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.4%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.0%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.5%	11.1%	—	—	9.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.1%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock not to score in both halves	71.9%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Kawasaki Frontale not to score in both halves	70.2%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Kawasaki Frontale to score in both halves	29.8%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Mito Hollyhock to score in both halves	28.1%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.8%	60.3%	50.5%	1.19×	1.66
Only Kawasaki Frontale scores	17.5%	16.0%	17.7%	0.90×	6.25
Only Mito Hollyhock scores	15.5%	16.0%	25.0%	0.64×	6.26
Neither team scores	4.1%	4.6%	7.1%	0.65×	21.60

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.4%	23.4%	0.96×	4.46
Exactly 2 goals	21.1%	22.4%	23.9%	0.94×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	17.6%	17.5%	12.3%	1.42×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	13.7%	12.1%	22.6%	0.53×	8.30
Exactly 5 goals	11.1%	12.0%	5.9%	2.06×	8.30
6 or more goals	10.0%	12.0%	5.5%	2.18×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.23

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.4%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	14.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.12

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	29.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	15.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock not to win both halves	90.6%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Kawasaki Frontale not to win both halves	89.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Kawasaki Frontale to win both halves	10.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Mito Hollyhock to win both halves	9.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.45

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kawasaki Frontale to win either half	55.6%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Mito Hollyhock to win either half	52.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Mito Hollyhock to win neither half	48.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.22
Kawasaki Frontale to win neither half	44.4%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock not to win to nil	84.5%	83.2%	75.0%	1.11×	1.20
Kawasaki Frontale not to win to nil	82.5%	83.2%	82.3%	1.01×	1.20
Kawasaki Frontale to win to nil	17.5%	16.8%	17.7%	0.95×	5.94
Mito Hollyhock to win to nil	15.5%	16.8%	25.0%	0.67×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.3%	24.2%	26.3%	0.92×	4.14
Kawasaki Frontale by 1	20.1%	24.2%	19.3%	1.25×	4.14
Mito Hollyhock by 1	18.9%	16.9%	25.0%	0.68×	5.92
Kawasaki Frontale by 2	12.0%	11.7%	6.0%	1.95×	8.53
Mito Hollyhock by 2	10.6%	11.7%	12.0%	0.97×	8.53
Kawasaki Frontale by 3+	8.3%	7.3%	6.0%	1.21×	13.76
Mito Hollyhock by 3+	6.7%	7.3%	6.2%	1.18×	13.77

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.