Mito Hollyhock v V-Varen Nagasaki — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Mito Hollyhock

05:00 UTC

V-Varen Nagasaki

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 858h before kick-off

Mito Hollyhock win

43.1%

model 40.2%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.7%

V-Varen Nagasaki win

29.6%

model 34.0%

432730

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
1-0 10.4%
0-1 9.4%
2-1 8.6%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.2%	Under 2.5	51.8%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
Mito Hollyhock 1+	74.5%	Mito Hollyhock 2+	39.7%
V-Varen Nagasaki 1+	70.9%	V-Varen Nagasaki 2+	35.0%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

2-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 65%

68.0% fair odds 1.47

moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

V-Varen Nagasaki (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 82%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Mito Hollyhock.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mito Hollyhock have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.6% for V-Varen Nagasaki and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Mito Hollyhock and 1.24 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

Why Mito Hollyhock

Nothing in the data singles out Mito Hollyhock.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.37 to 1.24. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why V-Varen Nagasaki can win

V-Varen Nagasaki carry the stronger rating, 1462 Elo against 1436.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Mito Hollyhock, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for V-Varen Nagasaki, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mito Hollyhock: 39% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. V-Varen Nagasaki: 43% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Mito Hollyhock are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402634	1.37–1.24	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	412533	1.43–1.25	1-1 12%	50%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to win	41.5%	42.9%	43.0%	1.00×	2.33
V-Varen Nagasaki to win	33.2%	30.4%	31.1%	0.98×	3.29
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock & not both score	22.1%	21.8%	25.0%	0.87×	4.59
Mito Hollyhock & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & not both score	17.4%	18.0%	17.8%	1.01×	5.57
V-Varen Nagasaki & both teams score	15.8%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.57
Draw & not both score	6.6%	8.3%	7.0%	1.18×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock & over 1.5	31.4%	30.8%	30.3%	1.01×	3.25
Mito Hollyhock & under 3.5	29.3%	26.1%	33.1%	0.79×	3.84
Mito Hollyhock & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	23.1%	0.93×	4.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 1.5	24.3%	21.6%	21.3%	1.02×	4.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 3.5	24.1%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	17.8%	1.01×	5.56
Mito Hollyhock & under 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	13.4%	0.96×	7.79
Mito Hollyhock & over 3.5	12.3%	12.8%	10.0%	1.28×	7.79
Mito Hollyhock & under 1.5	10.1%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	7.8%	1.01×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (1UP)	57.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
V-Varen Nagasaki (1UP)	50.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (2UP)	41.5%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
V-Varen Nagasaki (2UP)	33.2%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	35.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Mito Hollyhock to win 2nd half	34.1%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
V-Varen Nagasaki to win 2nd half	30.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.4%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Mito Hollyhock over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Mito Hollyhock under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Mito Hollyhock over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.6%	17.6%	—	—	5.67

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.5)	92.6%	92.1%	93.8%	0.98×	1.09
V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.5)	80.4%	82.5%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Mito Hollyhock (+0.5)	66.8%	68.7%	68.9%	1.00×	1.46
V-Varen Nagasaki (+0.5)	58.5%	57.0%	57.0%	1.00×	1.75
Mito Hollyhock (-0.5)	41.5%	43.0%	43.0%	1.00×	2.33
V-Varen Nagasaki (-0.5)	33.2%	31.3%	31.1%	1.01×	3.19
Mito Hollyhock (-1.5)	19.6%	17.5%	18.1%	0.96×	5.72
Mito Hollyhock (-2.5)	7.4%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede	76.0%	78.7%	75.3%	1.05×	1.27
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet	24.0%	21.3%	24.7%	0.86×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 1st half	54.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 1st half	45.8%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 2nd half	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 2nd half	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 6.5 corners	91.0%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
V-Varen Nagasaki under 5.5 corners	83.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
V-Varen Nagasaki under 4.5 corners	71.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 corners	65.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 corners	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 corners	35.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
V-Varen Nagasaki over 4.5 corners	28.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
V-Varen Nagasaki over 5.5 corners	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
V-Varen Nagasaki over 6.5 corners	9.0%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 goals	96.2%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 goals	86.9%	87.8%	87.8%	1.00×	1.14
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 goals	71.2%	71.9%	68.1%	1.06×	1.39
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 goals	64.6%	63.2%	68.3%	0.93×	1.58
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 goals	35.4%	36.8%	31.7%	1.16×	2.72
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 goals	28.8%	28.1%	31.9%	0.88×	3.56
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 goals	13.1%	12.2%	12.2%	1.00×	8.20
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 goals	3.8%	2.5%	4.1%	0.62×	39.84

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 1st half	91.0%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 1st half	60.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 1st half	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 1st half	9.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.56

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki scores equally in both	40.5%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
V-Varen Nagasaki scores more in 2nd half	37.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
V-Varen Nagasaki scores more in 1st half	22.0%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (away no bet)	62.1%	61.9%	62.2%	1.00×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.9%	38.1%	37.8%	1.01×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki even goals	54.1%	52.6%	54.2%	0.97×	1.90
V-Varen Nagasaki odd goals	45.9%	47.4%	45.8%	1.04×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.9%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.1%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.4%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Mito Hollyhock to score 2+ in a row	33.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 2+ in a row	27.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.5%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Mito Hollyhock to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+ in a row	7.7%	5.6%	—	—	17.94

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock corners (+3.5)	93.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Mito Hollyhock corners (+2.5)	89.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Mito Hollyhock corners (+1.5)	82.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+3.5)	73.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+2.5)	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+1.5)	50.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Mito Hollyhock corners (-1.5)	49.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Mito Hollyhock corners (-2.5)	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Mito Hollyhock corners (-3.5)	26.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-1.5)	17.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-2.5)	10.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-3.5)	6.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.3%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	18.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	81.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	36.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.72
1-0	10.1%	11.5%	12.8%	0.89×	8.72
0-1	8.9%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.51
0-0	6.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
1-2	7.7%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.51
2-0	7.0%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-2	5.4%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	5.2%	1.44×	13.51
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.32
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	58.31
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.32
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.32
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
Any other score	2.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (2nd half DNB)	52.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
V-Varen Nagasaki (2nd half DNB)	47.1%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock leading at HT (DNB)	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT (DNB)	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock or V-Varen Nagasaki (12)	74.7%	72.1%	73.9%	0.98×	1.39
Mito Hollyhock or draw (1X)	66.8%	69.6%	68.9%	1.01×	1.44
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (X2)	58.5%	57.1%	57.0%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock or draw at HT	75.6%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw at HT	68.1%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Mito Hollyhock or V-Varen Nagasaki at HT	56.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock or draw (1UP)	66.8%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1UP)	58.5%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock or draw in 2nd half	69.7%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw in 2nd half	65.9%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Mito Hollyhock or V-Varen Nagasaki in 2nd half	64.3%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.0%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (DNB)	55.6%	58.0%	58.0%	1.00×	1.72
V-Varen Nagasaki (DNB)	44.4%	42.0%	42.0%	1.00×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to score first	49.8%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
V-Varen Nagasaki to score first	43.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	6.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.8%	51.3%	50.5%	1.02×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.2%	48.7%	49.5%	0.98×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.8%	41.6%	37.2%	1.12×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	38.0%	38.4%	40.2%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.4%	13.4%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.2%	85.6%	86.3%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.8%	14.4%	13.8%	1.05×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.1%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	47.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.0%	26.6%	20.9%	1.27×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.7%	26.6%	29.5%	0.90×	3.76
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 0	28.8%	27.4%	31.9%	0.86×	3.65
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 2	22.3%	22.3%	19.7%	1.13×	4.49
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+	13.1%	12.9%	12.2%	1.06×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to score exactly 1	34.3%	32.6%	36.3%	0.90×	3.07
Mito Hollyhock to score exactly 2	24.4%	23.3%	24.5%	0.95×	4.29
Mito Hollyhock to score exactly 0	24.0%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Mito Hollyhock to score 3+	17.3%	18.8%	14.8%	1.26×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Mito Hollyhock leading at HT	31.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT	24.4%	20.8%	—	—	4.80

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock -1: 2	58.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Mito Hollyhock -1: X	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Mito Hollyhock -1: 1	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:1)	58.5%	55.8%	57.0%	0.98×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	21.9%	24.2%	25.0%	0.97×	4.13
Mito Hollyhock (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	18.1%	0.98×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:2)	80.4%	82.9%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.0%	12.0%	0.91×	9.10
Mito Hollyhock (0:2)	7.4%	7.7%	6.3%	1.23×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:3)	92.6%	92.7%	93.8%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	4.2%	1.37×	17.25
Mito Hollyhock (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	2.2%	1.09×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:4)	97.7%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.92
Mito Hollyhock (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (1:0)	66.8%	70.1%	68.9%	1.02×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.2%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
V-Varen Nagasaki (1:0)	14.0%	12.7%	11.9%	1.07×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock (2:0)	86.0%	88.5%	88.1%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.3%	6.4%	6.1%	1.05×	15.66
V-Varen Nagasaki (2:0)	4.7%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.54

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.9%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to concede	71.2%	73.2%	68.1%	1.07×	1.37
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	28.8%	26.8%	31.9%	0.84×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet in 1st half	60.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Mito Hollyhock to concede in 1st half	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.71

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to concede in 2nd half	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet in 2nd half	47.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock over 2.5 corners	83.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Mito Hollyhock under 6.5 corners	73.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Mito Hollyhock over 3.5 corners	69.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Mito Hollyhock under 5.5 corners	60.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Mito Hollyhock over 4.5 corners	54.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Mito Hollyhock under 4.5 corners	45.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Mito Hollyhock over 5.5 corners	39.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Mito Hollyhock under 3.5 corners	30.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Mito Hollyhock over 6.5 corners	26.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Mito Hollyhock under 2.5 corners	16.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Mito Hollyhock under 2.5 goals	82.7%	82.2%	85.2%	0.97×	1.22
Mito Hollyhock over 0.5 goals	76.0%	77.7%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Mito Hollyhock under 1.5 goals	58.3%	58.6%	60.8%	0.96×	1.71
Mito Hollyhock over 1.5 goals	41.7%	41.4%	39.2%	1.06×	2.42
Mito Hollyhock under 0.5 goals	24.0%	22.3%	24.7%	0.90×	4.49
Mito Hollyhock over 2.5 goals	17.3%	17.8%	14.8%	1.20×	5.62
Mito Hollyhock over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock under 1.5 in 1st half	87.4%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Mito Hollyhock under 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Mito Hollyhock over 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.02
Mito Hollyhock over 1.5 in 1st half	12.6%	9.8%	—	—	10.25

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock scores equally in both	37.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mito Hollyhock scores more in 2nd half	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mito Hollyhock scores more in 1st half	25.3%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (home no bet)	56.7%	56.4%	54.4%	1.04×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	43.3%	43.6%	45.6%	0.96×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock even goals	52.9%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Mito Hollyhock odd goals	47.1%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
HT 1-0	20.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	10.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.13
HT 2-0	6.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 0-2	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock at HT / Mito Hollyhock at FT	24.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	17.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Mito Hollyhock at FT	15.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	13.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Mito Hollyhock at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Mito Hollyhock at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Mito Hollyhock at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to score last	49.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
V-Varen Nagasaki to score last	43.5%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.4%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Mito Hollyhock to lead by 1 at any time	57.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 1 at any time	50.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.2%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Mito Hollyhock to lead by 2 at any time	25.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Mito Hollyhock to lead by 3 at any time	9.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.83
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock most corners	61.7%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
V-Varen Nagasaki most corners	27.0%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.9%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	72.4%	72.4%	68.0%	1.06×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.9%	68.8%	65.0%	1.06×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.4%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	59.2%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.0%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.5%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.4%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.7%	39.2%	35.3%	1.11×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.0%	30.2%	20.9%	1.44×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.5%	24.5%	18.0%	1.36×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.3%	14.8%	8.9%	1.66×	6.75
7+ goals	2.0%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock never behind	43.2%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
V-Varen Nagasaki never behind	35.9%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.7%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	70.5%	1.03×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.0%	72.5%	76.6%	0.95×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.1%	52.5%	53.4%	0.98×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.9%	47.5%	46.6%	1.02×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.0%	27.5%	23.4%	1.18×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	29.5%	0.93×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.3%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	7.0%	1.10×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	5.6%	1.37×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.1%	92.4%	94.0%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.4%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.1%	67.4%	61.2%	1.10×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.2%	61.9%	69.5%	0.89×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.9%	38.1%	30.5%	1.25×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.9%	32.6%	38.8%	0.84×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.6%	18.9%	13.0%	1.46×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.9%	7.6%	6.0%	1.27×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	2.7%	1.03×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.8%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.5%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.5%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.8%	—	—	4.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to score in both halves	79.3%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Mito Hollyhock not to score in both halves	74.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Mito Hollyhock to score in both halves	25.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
V-Varen Nagasaki to score in both halves	20.7%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.8%	53.9%	50.5%	1.07×	1.86
Only Mito Hollyhock scores	22.1%	22.2%	25.0%	0.89×	4.50
Only V-Varen Nagasaki scores	17.4%	16.0%	17.8%	0.90×	6.24
Neither team scores	6.6%	7.1%	7.0%	1.01×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.4%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.0%	17.5%	22.7%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.7%	12.1%	12.2%	1.00×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	7.8%	7.6%	5.9%	1.28×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.6%	7.6%	7.0%	1.08×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.4%	7.6%	5.6%	1.35×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	32.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.3%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	10.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	20.9%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win both halves	92.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Mito Hollyhock not to win both halves	89.2%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Mito Hollyhock to win both halves	10.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
V-Varen Nagasaki to win both halves	7.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.99

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mito Hollyhock to win either half	55.1%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
V-Varen Nagasaki to win neither half	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
V-Varen Nagasaki to win either half	47.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Mito Hollyhock to win neither half	44.9%	40.9%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win to nil	82.6%	83.1%	82.2%	1.01×	1.20
Mito Hollyhock not to win to nil	77.9%	78.1%	75.0%	1.04×	1.28
Mito Hollyhock to win to nil	22.1%	21.9%	25.0%	0.87×	4.57
V-Varen Nagasaki to win to nil	17.4%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
Mito Hollyhock by 1	21.9%	24.1%	25.0%	0.96×	4.15
V-Varen Nagasaki by 1	19.2%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
Mito Hollyhock by 2	12.2%	11.8%	12.0%	0.98×	8.51
V-Varen Nagasaki by 2	9.3%	7.2%	6.1%	1.18×	13.90
Mito Hollyhock by 3+	7.4%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.91
V-Varen Nagasaki by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.76