Modena v Padova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Modena

20:00 UTC

Padova

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 801h before kick-off

Modena win

43.3%

model 43.2%

Draw

29.4%

model 31.0%

Padova win

27.3%

model 25.8%

432927

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.5%
1-0 11.9%
0-0 11.7%
2-0 8.9%
2-1 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	39.9%	Under 2.5	60.1%
BTTS yes	46.9%	BTTS no	53.1%
Modena 1+	73.2%	Modena 2+	38.0%
Padova 1+	61.9%	Padova 2+	25.1%

Expected goals 1.32 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

47/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Padova not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Modena carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1452.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Modena have an estimated 43.3% win probability, against 29.4% for the draw and 27.3% for Padova. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.32 for Modena and 0.96 for Padova.

Why Modena

Modena carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1452. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 2.28 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Padova can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Modena, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Modena: 47% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Modena are the model's most likely outcome at 43.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.5%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	433126	1.32–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	443225	1.27–0.89	1-1 15%	37%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to win	43.5%	42.9%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Draw	31.9%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29
Padova to win	24.6%	24.5%	25.5%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena & not both score	27.9%	25.2%	23.9%	1.05×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Modena & both teams score	15.6%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.57
Padova & not both score	15.1%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.57
Draw & not both score	13.1%	13.3%	9.1%	1.46×	7.54
Padova & both teams score	9.5%	8.3%	12.3%	0.68×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena & under 3.5	34.5%	30.8%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Modena & over 1.5	30.4%	30.7%	31.8%	0.97×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	27.7%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	27.7%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Modena & under 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	18.4%	1.17×	4.63
Modena & over 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.63
Padova & under 3.5	20.6%	21.6%	19.9%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Padova & over 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Padova & under 2.5	13.4%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Modena & under 1.5	13.1%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	13.1%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Padova & over 2.5	11.3%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Modena & over 3.5	9.0%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Padova & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82
Padova & over 3.5	4.1%	4.8%	5.7%	0.84×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (1UP)	56.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Padova (1UP)	39.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2UP)	43.5%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Padova (2UP)	24.6%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Modena to win 2nd half	35.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Padova to win 2nd half	23.4%	24.4%	—	—	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.9%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Padova under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.6%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Padova over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.4%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Padova over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.85

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Modena over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.4%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Modena under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.6%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Modena over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (+2.5)	92.9%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Padova (+1.5)	79.6%	78.5%	80.3%	0.98×	1.27
Modena (+0.5)	75.4%	78.5%	74.5%	1.05×	1.27
Padova (+0.5)	56.5%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Modena (-0.5)	43.5%	42.9%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Padova (-0.5)	24.6%	21.5%	25.5%	0.84×	4.65
Modena (-1.5)	20.4%	21.5%	19.7%	1.09×	4.65
Modena (-2.5)	7.1%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede	71.8%	76.7%	77.7%	0.99×	1.30
Padova clean sheet	28.2%	23.3%	22.3%	1.05×	4.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 1st half	58.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Padova to concede in 1st half	42.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede in 2nd half	51.4%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Padova clean sheet in 2nd half	48.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 6.5 corners	88.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Padova under 5.5 corners	80.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Padova under 4.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Padova over 2.5 corners	66.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Padova under 3.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Padova over 3.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Padova under 2.5 corners	33.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Padova over 4.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Padova over 5.5 corners	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Padova over 6.5 corners	11.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Padova under 2.5 goals	93.9%	92.4%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Padova under 1.5 goals	77.6%	76.2%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Padova over 0.5 goals	59.0%	59.4%	67.1%	0.89×	1.68
Padova under 0.5 goals	41.0%	40.6%	32.9%	1.23×	2.47
Padova over 1.5 goals	22.4%	23.8%	30.6%	0.78×	4.21
Padova over 2.5 goals	6.1%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.08
Padova over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 1st half	95.0%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Padova under 0.5 in 1st half	70.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Padova over 0.5 in 1st half	30.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Padova over 1.5 in 1st half	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.70

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova scores equally in both	49.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Padova scores more in 2nd half	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Padova scores more in 1st half	19.2%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (away no bet)	57.7%	57.4%	57.3%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.3%	42.6%	42.7%	1.00×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova even goals	58.4%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Padova odd goals	41.6%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.9%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.1%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	51.2%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	48.8%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	44.2%	38.8%	—	—	2.57
Modena to score 2+ in a row	30.3%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Padova to score 2+ in a row	17.0%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Modena to score 3+ in a row	9.6%	5.6%	—	—	18.00
Padova to score 3+ in a row	3.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.71

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena corners (+3.5)	94.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Modena corners (+2.5)	91.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Modena corners (+1.5)	85.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Padova corners (+3.5)	62.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Modena corners (-1.5)	58.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Padova corners (+2.5)	52.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Modena corners (-2.5)	47.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Padova corners (+1.5)	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Modena corners (-3.5)	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Padova corners (-1.5)	14.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Padova corners (-2.5)	9.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Padova corners (-3.5)	5.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	30.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	70.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	69.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	60.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	50.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	39.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	30.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.6%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-0	13.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
1-0	13.1%	11.5%	11.1%	1.04×	8.71
0-1	8.8%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-0	9.3%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	8.3%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-2	3.7%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	3.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	3.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2nd half DNB)	60.0%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Padova (2nd half DNB)	40.0%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena leading at HT (DNB)	62.9%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Padova leading at HT (DNB)	37.1%	33.5%	—	—	2.98

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw (1X)	75.4%	75.5%	74.5%	1.01×	1.32
Modena or Padova (12)	68.1%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Padova or draw (X2)	56.5%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw at HT	81.2%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Padova or draw at HT	68.2%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Modena or Padova at HT	50.6%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw (1UP)	75.4%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Padova or draw (1UP)	56.5%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw in 2nd half	76.6%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Padova or draw in 2nd half	65.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Modena or Padova in 2nd half	58.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	31.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (DNB)	63.8%	62.7%	62.6%	1.00×	1.60
Padova (DNB)	36.2%	37.3%	37.4%	1.00×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score first	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Padova to score first	35.9%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	13.1%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.1%	55.0%	46.1%	1.19×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.9%	45.0%	53.9%	0.84×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	48.9%	44.3%	37.9%	1.17×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	29.3%	33.3%	39.4%	0.85×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	14.6%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.3%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.9%	89.0%	86.1%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.1%	11.0%	13.9%	0.79×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.2%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.8%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	68.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	19.1%	15.0%	—	—	6.66
Both score 1st half only	10.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	2.7%	4.8%	—	—	20.62

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.2%	85.0%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	12.8%	15.0%	—	—	6.65

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	56.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
A goal in each half	43.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.8%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	35.0%	35.0%	26.8%	1.31×	2.86
4-6 goals	16.5%	20.2%	23.5%	0.86×	4.95
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score exactly 0	41.0%	37.3%	32.9%	1.13×	2.68
Padova to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Padova to score exactly 2	16.3%	19.5%	21.5%	0.91×	5.12
Padova to score 3+	6.1%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.5%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Modena to score exactly 0	28.2%	26.6%	22.3%	1.19×	3.77
Modena to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Modena to score 3+	13.5%	14.3%	16.2%	0.88×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.4%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Modena leading at HT	31.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Padova leading at HT	18.8%	16.0%	—	—	6.24

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena -1: 2	56.5%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Modena -1: X	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Modena -1: 1	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:1)	56.5%	55.8%	57.3%	0.97×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	23.1%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Modena (0:1)	20.4%	24.2%	19.7%	1.23×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:2)	79.6%	79.4%	80.3%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.10
Modena (0:2)	7.1%	7.7%	6.7%	1.14×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:3)	92.9%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.28
Modena (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.73
Modena (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.85

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (1:0)	75.4%	78.5%	74.5%	1.05×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.8%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Padova (1:0)	8.8%	6.9%	10.0%	0.69×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2:0)	91.2%	94.0%	90.0%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.6%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.67
Padova (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
Halves equal	31.2%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
1st half highest scoring	25.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to concede	59.0%	60.7%	67.1%	0.90×	1.65
Modena clean sheet	41.0%	39.3%	32.9%	1.20×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena clean sheet in 1st half	70.0%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Modena to concede in 1st half	30.0%	33.5%	—	—	2.99

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena clean sheet in 2nd half	58.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Modena to concede in 2nd half	41.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena over 2.5 corners	89.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Modena over 3.5 corners	79.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Modena over 4.5 corners	66.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Modena under 6.5 corners	59.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Modena over 5.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Modena under 5.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Modena over 6.5 corners	40.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Modena under 4.5 corners	33.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Modena under 3.5 corners	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Modena under 2.5 corners	10.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 3.5 goals	96.0%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Modena under 2.5 goals	86.5%	87.3%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Modena over 0.5 goals	71.8%	74.2%	77.7%	0.96×	1.35
Modena under 1.5 goals	63.9%	63.6%	58.0%	1.10×	1.57
Modena over 1.5 goals	36.1%	36.4%	42.0%	0.87×	2.75
Modena under 0.5 goals	28.2%	25.8%	22.3%	1.16×	3.88
Modena over 2.5 goals	13.5%	12.7%	16.2%	0.79×	7.85
Modena over 3.5 goals	4.0%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.51

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Modena under 0.5 in 1st half	58.0%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Modena over 0.5 in 1st half	42.0%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Modena over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	9.7%	—	—	10.28

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena scores equally in both	40.4%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Modena scores more in 2nd half	35.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Modena scores more in 1st half	24.3%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.4%	56.4%	55.5%	1.02×	1.77
Padova (home no bet)	43.6%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena even goals	54.0%	50.8%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Modena odd goals	46.0%	49.2%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.9%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
HT 1-0	21.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	8.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 2-0	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.23
Any other HT score	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.26
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena at HT / Modena at FT	25.2%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	22.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Modena at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Padova at HT / Padova at FT	12.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Padova at FT	10.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Modena at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Padova at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Padova at HT / Modena at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
Modena at HT / Padova at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score last	51.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Padova to score last	35.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	13.1%	9.4%	—	—	10.60

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.9%	91.2%	—	—	1.10
Modena to lead by 1 at any time	56.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Padova to lead by 1 at any time	39.8%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	37.3%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Modena to lead by 2 at any time	25.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Padova to lead by 2 at any time	12.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.43
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Modena to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.99
Padova to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.35

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena most corners	69.1%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Padova most corners	21.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.1%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.6%	83.4%	87.3%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	82.1%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.7%	68.8%	66.3%	1.04×	1.45
2-6 goals	64.3%	63.3%	72.0%	0.88×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.7%	63.3%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.2%	59.1%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.3%	53.1%	43.5%	1.22×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.8%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.9%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
3-5 goals	34.3%	35.2%	44.0%	0.80×	2.84
3-4 goals	29.8%	30.2%	38.7%	0.78×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.5%	18.8%	23.5%	0.80×	5.31
4-5 goals	14.9%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.75
5-6 goals	6.1%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.27
7+ goals	0.7%	2.5%	1.4%	1.86×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena never behind	47.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Padova never behind	30.1%	36.2%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.3%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.7%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.1%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	86.9%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	82.8%	82.3%	75.2%	1.09×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	65.0%	61.7%	73.2%	0.84×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	63.5%	61.7%	52.4%	1.18×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	36.5%	38.3%	47.6%	0.80×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	35.0%	38.3%	26.8%	1.43×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	17.2%	17.7%	24.8%	0.71×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	13.1%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	3.7%	1.23×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.6%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.4%	92.4%	89.3%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.7%	75.9%	67.9%	1.12×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	51.1%	51.9%	64.0%	0.81×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	48.9%	48.1%	36.0%	1.34×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.3%	24.1%	32.1%	0.75×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.6%	7.6%	10.7%	0.71×	13.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.4%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.66

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.7%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.0%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.1%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.9%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.7%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.0%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.7%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.0%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.3%	14.7%	—	—	6.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to score in both halves	87.6%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Modena not to score in both halves	78.4%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Modena to score in both halves	21.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Padova to score in both halves	12.4%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.9%	46.6%	53.9%	0.86×	2.15
Only Modena scores	27.9%	26.1%	23.9%	1.09×	3.84
Only Padova scores	15.1%	16.0%	13.3%	1.20×	6.24
Neither team scores	13.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.5%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	21.9%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.3%	17.5%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	13.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	10.4%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	5.4%	0.84×	22.33
6 or more goals	2.3%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.9%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	16.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
3+ goals in 1st half	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.07

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	36.3%	39.6%	—	—	2.53
1 goal in 2nd half	34.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	29.0%	29.1%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to win both halves	95.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Modena not to win both halves	88.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Modena to win both halves	11.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Padova to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.35

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to win neither half	62.4%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Modena to win either half	55.4%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Modena to win neither half	44.6%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Padova to win either half	37.6%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to win to nil	84.9%	83.1%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
Modena not to win to nil	72.1%	75.3%	76.1%	0.99×	1.33
Modena to win to nil	27.9%	24.7%	23.9%	1.03×	4.05
Padova to win to nil	15.1%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	31.9%	27.7%	31.9%	0.87×	3.61
Modena by 1	23.1%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Padova by 1	15.8%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Modena by 2	13.3%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.50
Modena by 3+	7.1%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.91
Padova by 2	6.6%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Padova by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.90