Monaco v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 6
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.33 – -0.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
58.1%
Draw
23.4%
Angers win
18.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWWWDWDLD last 10
scored 15
from 11.5 xG
conceded 13
from 12.9 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDWLLD last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 17
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.27–0.84 | 2-0 11% | 60% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 1.67 xGAngers 0.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' |
 Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 31' |
 Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 32' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Prosper Peter |
| 32' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 39' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 42' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 46' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 49' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.17 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.93 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 73' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 88' |
Angers |
Carlens Arcus | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 88' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlens Arcus |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| Jordan Teze DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.60 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.10 | 0.19 | 1.33 |
| Anssumane Fati AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Caio Henrique DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paris Brunner Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Nibombé Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prosper Peter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Carlens Arcus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Pona GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Florent Hanin DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Mouton MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacques Ekomie Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marius Louãr Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |