Monaco v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Monaco

14:00 UTC

Auxerre

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 723h before kick-off

Monaco win

55.8%

model 58.8%

Draw

22.1%

model 21.1%

Auxerre win

22.1%

model 20.2%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.7%
2-0 8.9%
1-0 8.7%
3-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.1%	Under 2.5	38.9%
BTTS yes	58.4%	BTTS no	41.6%
Monaco 1+	87.0%	Monaco 2+	60.5%
Auxerre 1+	67.2%	Auxerre 2+	30.6%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

89/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Monaco to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 39%

52.8% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 783 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Monaco not to win both halves

Win both halves · usually 84%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Monaco carry the stronger rating, 1659 Elo against 1509.
Monaco have created 1.12 xG a match over their last five while Auxerre have allowed 1.97.
At home Monaco average 1.33 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monaco have an estimated 55.8% win probability, against 22.1% for the draw and 22.1% for Auxerre. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.04 for Monaco and 1.11 for Auxerre.

Why Monaco

Monaco carry the stronger rating, 1659 Elo against 1509. Monaco have created 1.12 xG a match over their last five while Auxerre have allowed 1.97. At home Monaco average 1.33 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Auxerre can win

Auxerre have created 1.41 xG a match over their last five while Monaco have allowed 1.34. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Auxerre average 1.28 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Monaco were missing 1.17 expected goal involvements a match against 0.84.

Key players

Monaco's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Folarin Balogun (0.49), Maghnes Akliouche (0.33), Anssumane Fati (0.28). Auxerre's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Cameron Archer (0.54), Lassine Sinayoko (0.49), Danny Namaso (0.37).

Availability

3 of Monaco's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Monaco's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Auxerre's top three contributors did not start their last match. Auxerre changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Auxerre's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monaco: 51% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Auxerre: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Monaco are the model's most likely outcome at 55.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLLWWWDWDL last 10 scored 16 from 11.3 xG conceded 13 from 13.4 xG

Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WWWLLLWWLW last 10 scored 18 from 14.1 xG conceded 19 from 19.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592120	2.04–1.11	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	651916	2.25–1.01	2-1 10%	63%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win	64.5%	58.3%	46.2%	1.26×	1.72
Draw	19.5%	19.4%	22.6%	0.86×	5.15
Auxerre to win	16.0%	19.4%	31.3%	0.62×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco & not both score	33.1%	29.6%	23.6%	1.25×	3.38
Monaco & both teams score	31.4%	29.6%	22.7%	1.30×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.3%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.57
Auxerre & both teams score	8.9%	8.3%	15.8%	0.53×	12.01
Auxerre & not both score	7.1%	8.3%	15.7%	0.53×	12.01
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	6.4%	0.77×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco & over 1.5	55.3%	54.8%	36.2%	1.51×	1.83
Monaco & over 2.5	45.3%	45.0%	28.8%	1.56×	2.22
Monaco & under 3.5	36.4%	34.9%	29.5%	1.18×	2.87
Monaco & over 3.5	28.1%	26.1%	16.8%	1.55×	3.84
Monaco & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.3%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.3%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Auxerre & over 1.5	11.8%	12.8%	25.3%	0.51×	7.79
Auxerre & under 3.5	11.4%	12.8%	20.2%	0.63×	7.79
Monaco & under 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Auxerre & over 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	19.8%	0.40×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Auxerre & under 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	11.7%	0.68×	12.63
Auxerre & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	11.2%	0.43×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.4%	0.76×	20.81
Auxerre & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.2%	0.77×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (1UP)	76.5%	78.7%	59.0%	1.33×	1.27
Auxerre (1UP)	34.7%	33.2%	48.8%	0.68×	3.01

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2UP)	64.5%	68.8%	48.2%	1.43×	1.45
Auxerre (2UP)	16.0%	17.1%	33.6%	0.51×	5.85

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win 2nd half	60.4%	59.2%	42.0%	1.41×	1.69
2nd half drawn	26.3%	25.7%	31.3%	0.82×	3.89
Auxerre to win 2nd half	13.3%	11.4%	26.9%	0.43×	8.74

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.0%	91.7%	82.3%	1.11×	1.09
Auxerre under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	54.6%	49.8%	1.10×	1.83
Auxerre over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	45.4%	50.2%	0.90×	2.20
Auxerre over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.0%	8.3%	17.7%	0.47×	12.04

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.0%	75.5%	62.2%	1.21×	1.33
Monaco under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	58.0%	75.5%	0.77×	1.73
Monaco over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	42.0%	24.5%	1.71×	2.38
Monaco under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.0%	24.5%	37.8%	0.65×	4.07

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (+0.5)	84.0%	82.5%	68.7%	1.20×	1.21
Auxerre (+2.5)	78.3%	78.5%	90.1%	0.87×	1.27
Monaco (-0.5)	64.5%	63.0%	46.2%	1.36×	1.59
Auxerre (+1.5)	58.8%	57.0%	75.5%	0.76×	1.75
Monaco (-1.5)	41.2%	43.0%	24.5%	1.75×	2.33
Auxerre (+0.5)	35.5%	37.0%	53.8%	0.69×	2.70
Monaco (-2.5)	21.7%	21.5%	9.9%	2.17×	4.65
Auxerre (-0.5)	16.0%	17.5%	31.3%	0.56×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to concede	88.7%	86.3%	78.1%	1.10×	1.16
Auxerre clean sheet	11.3%	13.7%	21.9%	0.63×	7.31

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to concede in 1st half	50.8%	50.5%	48.2%	1.05×	1.98
Auxerre clean sheet in 1st half	49.2%	49.5%	51.8%	0.96×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to concede in 2nd half	77.0%	75.8%	62.2%	1.22×	1.32
Auxerre clean sheet in 2nd half	23.0%	24.2%	37.8%	0.64×	4.14

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 6.5 corners	77.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Auxerre over 2.5 corners	75.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Auxerre under 5.5 corners	67.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Auxerre over 3.5 corners	60.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Auxerre under 4.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Auxerre over 4.5 corners	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Auxerre under 3.5 corners	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Auxerre over 5.5 corners	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Auxerre under 2.5 corners	24.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Auxerre over 6.5 corners	22.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.5%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Auxerre under 2.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	84.5%	1.09×	1.08
Auxerre under 1.5 goals	74.1%	71.9%	63.2%	1.14×	1.39
Auxerre over 0.5 goals	62.7%	63.2%	70.2%	0.90×	1.58
Auxerre under 0.5 goals	37.3%	36.8%	29.8%	1.23×	2.72
Auxerre over 1.5 goals	25.9%	28.1%	36.8%	0.76×	3.56
Auxerre over 2.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	15.5%	0.49×	13.05
Auxerre over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.5%	6.4%	0.39×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	93.9%	87.7%	1.07×	1.07
Auxerre under 0.5 in 1st half	63.4%	63.6%	57.9%	1.10×	1.57
Auxerre over 0.5 in 1st half	36.6%	36.4%	42.1%	0.86×	2.75
Auxerre over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	6.1%	12.3%	0.50×	16.36

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre scores equally in both	46.9%	48.1%	41.1%	1.17×	2.08
Auxerre scores more in 2nd half	29.1%	26.4%	34.4%	0.77×	3.79
Auxerre scores more in 1st half	24.0%	22.0%	24.7%	0.89×	4.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (away no bet)	76.8%	73.6%	67.2%	1.10×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	23.2%	26.4%	32.8%	0.81×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre even goals	56.9%	56.9%	55.7%	1.02×	1.76
Auxerre odd goals	43.1%	43.1%	44.3%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.7%	82.6%	82.6%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.3%	17.4%	17.4%	1.00×	5.76

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.6%	67.4%	65.9%	1.02×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.4%	32.6%	34.1%	0.96×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.3%	62.3%	60.5%	1.03×	1.61
Monaco to score 2+ in a row	56.2%	55.1%	38.6%	1.43×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.6%	29.1%	22.3%	1.30×	3.43
Monaco to score 3+ in a row	27.5%	25.2%	13.8%	1.83×	3.97
Auxerre to score 2+ in a row	16.9%	16.2%	28.0%	0.58×	6.16
Auxerre to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	9.2%	0.28×	38.62

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Monaco corners (+2.5)	82.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Monaco corners (+1.5)	75.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Auxerre corners (+3.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Auxerre corners (+2.5)	61.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Auxerre corners (+1.5)	52.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Monaco corners (-1.5)	47.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Monaco corners (-2.5)	38.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monaco corners (-3.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Auxerre corners (-1.5)	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Auxerre corners (-2.5)	17.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Auxerre corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	34.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	69.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	61.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	56.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	53.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	43.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	30.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.0%	11.5%	7.5%	1.52×	8.73
1-0	9.2%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.50
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.50
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	3.5%	2.09×	13.51
3-1	7.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
Any other score	7.3%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
0-1	4.2%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.30
0-2	2.1%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
4-0	4.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
4-1	3.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	3.87×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2nd half DNB)	81.9%	82.7%	60.9%	1.36×	1.21
Auxerre (2nd half DNB)	18.1%	17.3%	39.1%	0.44×	5.78

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco leading at HT (DNB)	64.0%	65.8%	54.1%	1.22×	1.52
Auxerre leading at HT (DNB)	36.0%	34.2%	45.9%	0.74×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw (1X)	84.0%	80.6%	68.7%	1.17×	1.24
Monaco or Auxerre (12)	80.5%	80.6%	77.4%	1.04×	1.24
Auxerre or draw (X2)	35.5%	41.7%	53.8%	0.78×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw at HT	79.2%	79.2%	71.6%	1.10×	1.26
Auxerre or draw at HT	63.0%	61.6%	66.6%	0.92×	1.62
Monaco or Auxerre at HT	57.9%	57.1%	61.6%	0.93×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw (1UP)	84.0%	88.7%	73.1%	1.21×	1.13
Auxerre or draw (1UP)	35.5%	40.8%	61.5%	0.66×	2.45

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw in 2nd half	86.7%	88.6%	73.1%	1.21×	1.13
Monaco or Auxerre in 2nd half	73.7%	74.3%	68.7%	1.08×	1.35
Auxerre or draw in 2nd half	39.6%	40.8%	58.1%	0.70×	2.45

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.4%	58.4%	57.0%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.6%	41.6%	43.0%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (DNB)	80.1%	80.2%	59.6%	1.34×	1.25
Auxerre (DNB)	19.9%	19.8%	40.4%	0.49×	5.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score first	65.9%	69.3%	50.3%	1.38×	1.44
Auxerre to score first	29.9%	28.2%	43.5%	0.65×	3.55
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.4%	0.68×	23.26

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.6%	55.0%	54.7%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.4%	45.0%	45.3%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.5%	44.3%	44.9%	0.99×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	29.7%	33.4%	35.3%	0.95×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	14.7%	12.4%	10.2%	1.21×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	9.9%	0.84×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.4%	82.6%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.6%	17.4%	15.5%	1.12×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.3%	67.4%	69.4%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.7%	32.6%	30.6%	1.07×	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.6%	59.9%	57.2%	1.05×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	25.8%	27.4%	24.2%	1.13×	3.66
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.7%	12.4%	0.86×	9.36
Both score in both halves	5.9%	6.8%	6.5%	1.04×	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.4%	83.2%	81.2%	1.02×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.6%	16.8%	18.8%	0.90×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.5%	57.5%	59.7%	0.96×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.5%	42.5%	40.3%	1.05×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.1%	43.3%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	34.8%	30.8%	30.9%	1.00×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.6%	20.2%	22.5%	0.90×	4.94
7+ goals	4.2%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.08

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to score exactly 0	37.3%	35.9%	29.8%	1.20×	2.78
Auxerre to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	33.5%	1.07×	2.78
Auxerre to score exactly 2	18.2%	19.6%	21.4%	0.91×	5.11
Auxerre to score 3+	7.8%	8.6%	15.5%	0.55×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score 3+	37.1%	35.6%	22.6%	1.57×	2.81
Monaco to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	24.1%	1.10×	3.77
Monaco to score exactly 1	24.7%	23.3%	31.8%	0.73×	4.29
Monaco to score exactly 0	11.3%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.1%	42.9%	38.4%	1.12×	2.33
Monaco leading at HT	37.0%	38.4%	33.4%	1.15×	2.61
Auxerre leading at HT	20.8%	20.8%	28.4%	0.73×	4.80

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco -1: 1	41.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Monaco -1: 2	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Monaco -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:1)	41.2%	42.6%	24.5%	1.74×	2.35
Auxerre (0:1)	35.5%	37.3%	53.8%	0.69×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	21.9%	1.11×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre (0:2)	58.8%	63.1%	75.5%	0.84×	1.59
Monaco (0:2)	21.7%	20.3%	9.9%	2.05×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	19.4%	15.3%	14.8%	1.04×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre (0:3)	78.3%	80.5%	90.1%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.1%	9.9%	5.9%	1.68×	10.05
Monaco (0:3)	9.6%	5.8%	4.1%	1.41×	17.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre (0:4)	90.4%	94.5%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	6.0%	4.6%	2.8%	1.64×	21.74
Monaco (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.71

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (1:0)	84.0%	81.4%	68.7%	1.18×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.6%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.88
Auxerre (1:0)	5.4%	6.9%	16.8%	0.41×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2:0)	94.6%	94.0%	83.2%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.0%	2.3%	9.9%	0.23×	43.58
Auxerre (2:0)	1.4%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.7%	58.6%	48.2%	1.22×	1.71
1st half highest scoring	21.8%	24.3%	26.0%	0.94×	4.11
Halves equal	21.5%	24.3%	26.0%	0.94×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to concede	62.7%	63.7%	70.2%	0.91×	1.57
Monaco clean sheet	37.3%	36.3%	29.8%	1.22×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco clean sheet in 1st half	63.4%	63.6%	57.9%	1.10×	1.57
Monaco to concede in 1st half	36.6%	36.4%	42.1%	0.87×	2.75

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco clean sheet in 2nd half	58.8%	54.9%	49.8%	1.10×	1.82
Monaco to concede in 2nd half	41.2%	45.1%	50.2%	0.90×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco over 2.5 corners	86.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Monaco over 3.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Monaco over 4.5 corners	62.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monaco under 6.5 corners	61.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monaco over 5.5 corners	50.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Monaco under 5.5 corners	49.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Monaco over 6.5 corners	38.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monaco under 4.5 corners	37.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monaco under 3.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Monaco under 2.5 corners	13.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco over 0.5 goals	88.7%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Monaco under 3.5 goals	82.4%	82.2%	91.6%	0.90×	1.22
Monaco over 1.5 goals	64.0%	63.6%	46.5%	1.37×	1.57
Monaco under 2.5 goals	62.9%	63.6%	77.4%	0.82×	1.57
Monaco over 2.5 goals	37.1%	36.4%	22.6%	1.61×	2.75
Monaco under 1.5 goals	36.0%	36.4%	53.5%	0.68×	2.75
Monaco over 3.5 goals	17.6%	17.8%	8.4%	2.11×	5.62
Monaco under 0.5 goals	11.3%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 1.5 in 1st half	84.1%	83.8%	87.1%	0.96×	1.19
Monaco over 0.5 in 1st half	50.8%	50.3%	48.2%	1.04×	1.99
Monaco under 0.5 in 1st half	49.2%	49.7%	51.8%	0.96×	2.01
Monaco over 1.5 in 1st half	15.9%	16.2%	12.9%	1.26×	6.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco scores more in 2nd half	55.4%	56.3%	40.9%	1.38×	1.78
Monaco scores equally in both	26.6%	27.8%	36.6%	0.76×	3.60
Monaco scores more in 1st half	18.0%	15.5%	22.6%	0.69×	6.45

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.0%	51.4%	41.9%	1.23×	1.95
Auxerre (home no bet)	45.0%	48.6%	58.1%	0.84×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco even goals	50.6%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Monaco odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.2%	33.3%	28.5%	1.17×	3.00
HT 1-0	22.1%	24.4%	21.4%	1.14×	4.10
HT 0-1	14.2%	11.0%	16.8%	0.66×	9.06
HT 1-1	10.1%	11.0%	9.5%	1.16×	9.10
HT 2-0	7.8%	6.9%	6.8%	1.02×	14.48
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.98
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.4%	3.3%	0.73×	42.05
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.4%	5.2%	0.46×	42.07
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.13
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco at HT / Monaco at FT	33.3%	32.3%	27.8%	1.16×	3.10
Draw at HT / Monaco at FT	25.4%	27.1%	15.1%	1.80×	3.69
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.1%	12.6%	12.7%	0.99×	7.92
Auxerre at HT / Auxerre at FT	9.6%	6.0%	18.9%	0.32×	16.56
Auxerre at HT / Monaco at FT	5.8%	6.0%	3.7%	1.62×	16.67
Draw at HT / Auxerre at FT	5.6%	6.0%	10.9%	0.55×	16.67
Auxerre at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	6.1%	0.99×	16.67
Monaco at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.5%	4.1%	0.84×	28.66
Monaco at HT / Auxerre at FT	0.8%	3.5%	1.8%	1.96×	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score last	65.9%	70.1%	53.0%	1.32×	1.43
Auxerre to score last	29.9%	27.9%	40.8%	0.68×	3.59
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.4%	0.68×	23.26

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.8%	95.6%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Monaco to lead by 1 at any time	76.5%	78.3%	59.0%	1.33×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.7%	54.9%	51.6%	1.06×	1.82
Monaco to lead by 2 at any time	48.2%	44.6%	30.0%	1.48×	2.24
Auxerre to lead by 1 at any time	34.7%	29.9%	48.8%	0.61×	3.34
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.4%	25.5%	19.8%	1.29×	3.92
Monaco to lead by 3 at any time	25.0%	25.4%	11.7%	2.18×	3.93
Auxerre to lead by 2 at any time	9.9%	6.8%	21.7%	0.31×	14.80
Auxerre to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	1.6%	8.3%	0.19×	62.40

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco most corners	57.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Auxerre most corners	33.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	9.4%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	85.2%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.7%	74.0%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.5%	72.4%	76.8%	0.94×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.1%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	60.7%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.1%	59.1%	51.4%	1.15×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.8%	59.1%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.2%	53.2%	46.5%	1.14×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.6%	43.3%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	39.2%	38.1%	1.03×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.8%	35.2%	30.9%	1.14×	2.84
1-2 goals	34.5%	35.2%	38.8%	0.91×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.9%	30.2%	26.0%	1.16×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.1%	18.8%	13.4%	1.40×	5.31
7+ goals	4.2%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.04

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco never behind	61.1%	68.0%	51.2%	1.33×	1.47
Auxerre never behind	19.3%	18.6%	41.0%	0.45×	5.38

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.9%	87.6%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.4%	82.3%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	83.0%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.3%	61.7%	54.9%	1.12×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	61.1%	61.7%	65.6%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	38.9%	38.3%	34.4%	1.11×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.7%	38.3%	45.1%	0.85×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	17.0%	1.34×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.6%	17.7%	22.5%	0.79×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.1%	12.4%	8.6%	1.45×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.6%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.6%	86.7%	90.6%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.7%	75.9%	71.0%	1.07×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.2%	72.4%	79.4%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.1%	51.9%	43.3%	1.20×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.9%	48.1%	56.7%	0.85×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.8%	27.6%	20.6%	1.34×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.3%	24.1%	29.0%	0.83×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.4%	13.3%	9.4%	1.42×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.4%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.2%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.8%	68.5%	71.5%	0.96×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.6%	68.4%	66.5%	1.03×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.4%	31.6%	33.5%	0.94×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.2%	31.5%	28.5%	1.11×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.8%	12.6%	0.86×	9.28

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.5%	85.5%	81.8%	1.04×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.7%	68.7%	75.3%	0.91×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	55.0%	49.8%	1.10×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	45.0%	50.2%	0.90×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.3%	31.3%	24.7%	1.27×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.5%	14.5%	18.2%	0.80×	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre not to score in both halves	84.9%	84.5%	77.8%	1.08×	1.18
Monaco not to score in both halves	60.9%	63.5%	67.8%	0.94×	1.57
Monaco to score in both halves	39.1%	36.5%	32.2%	1.13×	2.74
Auxerre to score in both halves	15.1%	15.5%	22.2%	0.70×	6.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.6%	58.6%	54.7%	1.07×	1.71
Only Monaco scores	33.1%	33.3%	23.6%	1.41×	3.00
Only Auxerre scores	7.1%	7.1%	15.7%	0.45×	14.04
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	6.4%	0.73×	21.67

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.7%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.2%	22.6%	22.7%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.4%	12.1%	16.2%	0.75×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	11.2%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.1%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.5%	6.4%	0.70×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.4%	38.1%	0.98×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	31.2%	35.8%	28.5%	1.26×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.2%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.3%	10.7%	12.6%	0.85×	9.36

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.4%	54.3%	49.8%	1.09×	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	27.1%	29.3%	32.2%	0.91×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	13.5%	14.3%	18.2%	0.79×	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	90.7%	1.07×	1.03
Monaco not to win both halves	77.7%	75.5%	83.6%	0.90×	1.33
Monaco to win both halves	22.3%	24.5%	16.4%	1.50×	4.08
Auxerre to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	9.3%	0.30×	35.63

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win either half	75.0%	79.6%	58.9%	1.35×	1.26
Auxerre to win neither half	68.6%	67.8%	54.1%	1.25×	1.47
Auxerre to win either half	31.4%	32.2%	45.9%	0.70×	3.11
Monaco to win neither half	25.0%	20.4%	41.1%	0.50×	4.90

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre not to win to nil	92.9%	92.1%	84.3%	1.09×	1.09
Monaco not to win to nil	66.9%	69.6%	76.4%	0.91×	1.44
Monaco to win to nil	33.1%	30.4%	23.6%	1.28×	3.29
Auxerre to win to nil	7.1%	7.9%	15.7%	0.50×	12.66

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco by 1	23.3%	24.1%	21.9%	1.10×	4.15
Monaco by 3+	21.7%	24.1%	9.9%	2.44×	4.15
Monaco by 2	19.4%	17.1%	14.8%	1.15×	5.86
Draw	19.5%	17.1%	22.6%	0.75×	5.86
Auxerre by 1	10.6%	11.8%	14.6%	0.80×	8.51
Auxerre by 2	4.0%	2.7%	9.9%	0.27×	36.78
Auxerre by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.86