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Monaco v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG

2–1
1.54 – 1.46 xG
Shots
9 – 13
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.55
Goals − xG
+0.29 – -0.46
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Paris Brunner 31' — goalMatthieu Udol 56' — goal
Monaco 1.71 xGLens 1.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Abdallah Sima 2' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 6' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Michaël Cuisance 17' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Paris Brunner 31' — Goal (0.50 xG, Open Play)Aleksandr Golovin 38' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Paris Brunner 41' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Denis Zakaria 42' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 42' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Abdallah Sima 46' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Matthis Abline 47' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 48' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Matthieu Udol 56' — Goal (0.38 xG, From Corner)Thorgan Hazard 59' — Missed Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 64' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Thorgan Hazard 73' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Michaël Cuisance 74' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Gradit 83' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Kyllian Antonio 86' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Paris Brunner 89' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Odsonne Edouard 91' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Folarin Balogun 92' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Matthieu Udol 95' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)
Monaco attacking right Lens attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Lens Abdallah Sima 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matthieu Udol
6' Monaco Matthis Abline 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Flávio Nazinho
17' Lens Michaël Cuisance 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
31' Monaco Paris Brunner 0.50 Open Play Right Foot Goal Matthis Abline
38' Monaco Aleksandr Golovin 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Paris Brunner
41' Monaco Paris Brunner 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aleksandr Golovin
42' Monaco Denis Zakaria 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Paris Brunner
42' Monaco Matthis Abline 0.46 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
46' Lens Abdallah Sima 0.08 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Amadou Haidara
47' Monaco Matthis Abline 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aleksandr Golovin
48' Lens Florian Thauvin 0.01 Open Play — Missed Shot Matthieu Udol
56' Lens Matthieu Udol 0.38 From Corner — Goal Florian Thauvin
59' Lens Thorgan Hazard 0.54 Open Play — Missed Shot Junior Kadile
64' Lens Florian Thauvin 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Michaël Cuisance
73' Lens Thorgan Hazard 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Odsonne Edouard
74' Lens Michaël Cuisance 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ruben Aguilar
83' Lens Jonathan Gradit 0.00 Open Play — Own Goal —
86' Lens Kyllian Antonio 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Jonathan Gradit
89' Monaco Paris Brunner 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aleksandr Golovin
91' Lens Odsonne Edouard 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Florian Thauvin
92' Monaco Folarin Balogun 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mathys Detourbet
95' Lens Matthieu Udol 0.06 Set Piece — Saved Shot Andrija Bulatovic

Players

Monaco

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Paris Brunner FW 90 1 0 3 2 0.91 0.10 1.01
Aleksandr Golovin ML 90 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.48 0.51
Vanderson DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Flávio Nazinho DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.44
Eric Dier DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Lukas Hradecky GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Lamine Camara MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sadibou Sané DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Matthis Abline FW 79 0 1 3 1 0.59 0.50 1.13
Denis Zakaria MC 79 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.10
Edan Diop MR 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Mathys Detourbet Sub 25 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.12
Folarin Balogun Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.15
Pape Cabral Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mohammed Salisu Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12

Lens

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matthieu Udol DC 90 1 0 2 2 0.44 0.06 0.11
Michaël Cuisance MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.10 0.37
Florian Thauvin AMC 90 0 1 2 2 0.12 0.41 0.69
Kyllian Antonio DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.24
Ruben Aguilar DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.10
Robin Risser GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Amadou Haidara MC 75 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.06
Junior Kadile DML 72 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.54 0.54
Abdallah Sima FW 61 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.05
Mezian Soares AMC 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Clair Todibo DC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Jonathan Gradit Sub 41 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.05
Thorgan Hazard Sub 29 0 0 2 0 0.59 0.00 0.65
Odsonne Edouard Sub 29 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.62
Michal Skóras Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Andrija Bulatovic Sub 15 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.14
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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