Monaco v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 7
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.31 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
40.3%
Draw
25.5%
Lille win
34.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.40 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 0.31 xGLille 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 8' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 47' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 49' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 70' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 71' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 82' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Mbappé |
| 93' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jordan Teze DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Simon Adingra DML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Wout Faes Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ilane Touré Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Felix Correia AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ethan Mbappé Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Gaetan Perrin Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Calvin Verdonk Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |