Monaco v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Monaco

13:00 UTC

Lille

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 50h before kick-off

Monaco win

43.1%

model 40.6%

Draw

27.3%

model 26.0%

Lille win

29.5%

model 33.4%

432730

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.3%
1-0 9.9%
0-1 8.8%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.6%	Under 2.5	50.4%
BTTS yes	53.9%	BTTS no	46.1%
Monaco 1+	75.5%	Monaco 2+	41.1%
Lille 1+	71.3%	Lille 2+	35.5%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 59%

68.0% fair odds 1.47

moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lille (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 76%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Monaco average 1.33 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monaco have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Lille and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Monaco and 1.25 for Lille.

Why Monaco

At home Monaco average 1.33 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.41 to 1.25. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Lille can win

Away from home Lille average 1.27 xG a match.

Key players

Monaco's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Folarin Balogun (0.49), Maghnes Akliouche (0.33), Anssumane Fati (0.28). Lille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Matias Fernandez-Pardo (0.49), Hákon Haraldsson (0.32), Olivier Giroud (0.29).

Availability

3 of Monaco's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Monaco's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Lille's top three contributors did not start their last match. Lille changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Lille's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monaco: 51% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Lille: 56% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Monaco are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLLWWWDWDL last 10 scored 16 from 11.3 xG conceded 13 from 13.4 xG

Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDWWLWD last 10 scored 12 from 14.3 xG conceded 8 from 11.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412633	1.41–1.25	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402733	1.31–1.16	1-1 13%	45%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win	47.6%	47.4%	46.2%	1.02×	2.11
Lille to win	27.9%	27.9%	31.3%	0.89×	3.58
Draw	24.5%	24.4%	22.6%	1.08×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco & not both score	24.5%	21.8%	23.6%	0.92×	4.58
Monaco & both teams score	23.1%	21.8%	22.7%	0.96×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.57
Lille & both teams score	14.2%	13.3%	15.8%	0.84×	7.53
Lille & not both score	13.6%	13.3%	15.7%	0.85×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.3%	6.4%	1.31×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco & over 1.5	37.9%	34.9%	36.2%	0.96×	2.87
Monaco & under 3.5	31.4%	30.8%	29.5%	1.04×	3.25
Monaco & over 2.5	30.0%	26.1%	28.8%	0.90×	3.84
Lille & over 1.5	20.8%	21.6%	25.3%	0.86×	4.63
Lille & under 3.5	19.9%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Monaco & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Lille & over 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Monaco & over 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Lille & under 2.5	11.3%	12.8%	11.7%	1.10×	7.79
Monaco & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Lille & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	11.2%	0.71×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.4%	1.25×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Lille & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (1UP)	63.1%	62.9%	59.0%	1.07×	1.59
Lille (1UP)	46.0%	43.9%	48.8%	0.90×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2UP)	47.6%	50.1%	48.2%	1.04×	2.00
Lille (2UP)	27.9%	25.2%	33.6%	0.75×	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win 2nd half	43.6%	41.9%	42.0%	1.00×	2.38
2nd half drawn	31.7%	34.3%	31.3%	1.10×	2.92
Lille to win 2nd half	24.7%	24.3%	26.9%	0.90×	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	84.4%	82.3%	1.03×	1.19
Lille over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.5%	52.6%	50.2%	1.05×	1.90
Lille under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.5%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
Lille over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	15.6%	17.7%	0.88×	6.40

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.1%	73.8%	75.5%	0.98×	1.36
Monaco over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.6%	70.6%	62.2%	1.14×	1.42
Monaco under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.4%	29.4%	37.8%	0.78×	3.41
Monaco over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.9%	26.2%	24.5%	1.07×	3.82

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (+2.5)	89.6%	88.5%	90.1%	0.98×	1.13
Lille (+1.5)	75.1%	78.5%	75.5%	1.04×	1.27
Monaco (+0.5)	72.1%	73.6%	68.7%	1.07×	1.36
Lille (+0.5)	52.4%	52.4%	53.8%	0.97×	1.91
Monaco (-0.5)	47.6%	47.6%	46.2%	1.03×	2.10
Lille (-0.5)	27.9%	26.4%	31.3%	0.84×	3.80
Monaco (-1.5)	24.9%	21.5%	24.5%	0.88×	4.65
Monaco (-2.5)	10.4%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede	80.4%	81.5%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Lille clean sheet	19.6%	18.5%	21.9%	0.85×	5.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille clean sheet in 1st half	58.6%	57.0%	51.8%	1.10×	1.75
Lille to concede in 1st half	41.4%	43.0%	48.2%	0.89×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede in 2nd half	66.6%	65.8%	62.2%	1.06×	1.52
Lille clean sheet in 2nd half	33.4%	34.2%	37.8%	0.90×	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 6.5 corners	78.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lille over 2.5 corners	75.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lille under 5.5 corners	67.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Lille over 3.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lille under 4.5 corners	54.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Lille over 4.5 corners	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Lille under 3.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lille over 5.5 corners	32.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Lille under 2.5 corners	24.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Lille over 6.5 corners	21.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Lille under 2.5 goals	88.2%	87.8%	84.5%	1.04×	1.14
Lille over 0.5 goals	69.5%	68.0%	70.2%	0.97×	1.47
Lille under 1.5 goals	66.7%	68.0%	63.2%	1.08×	1.47
Lille over 1.5 goals	33.3%	32.0%	36.8%	0.87×	3.12
Lille under 0.5 goals	30.5%	32.0%	29.8%	1.07×	3.13
Lille over 2.5 goals	11.8%	12.2%	15.5%	0.79×	8.20
Lille over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	6.4%	0.39×	39.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 1st half	92.6%	93.9%	87.7%	1.07×	1.07
Lille under 0.5 in 1st half	64.1%	63.7%	57.9%	1.10×	1.57
Lille over 0.5 in 1st half	35.9%	36.3%	42.1%	0.86×	2.75
Lille over 1.5 in 1st half	7.4%	6.1%	12.3%	0.50×	16.39

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille scores equally in both	41.4%	43.4%	41.1%	1.06×	2.31
Lille scores more in 2nd half	38.8%	37.4%	34.4%	1.09×	2.68
Lille scores more in 1st half	19.8%	18.2%	24.7%	0.74×	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (away no bet)	66.0%	66.4%	67.2%	0.99×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	34.0%	33.6%	32.8%	1.02×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille even goals	54.6%	52.6%	55.7%	0.94×	1.90
Lille odd goals	45.4%	47.4%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.9%	87.9%	82.6%	1.06×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.1%	12.1%	17.4%	0.70×	8.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.4%	68.4%	65.9%	1.04×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.6%	31.6%	34.1%	0.93×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.6%	55.2%	60.5%	0.91×	1.81
Monaco to score 2+ in a row	39.9%	36.7%	38.6%	0.95×	2.72
Lille to score 2+ in a row	24.5%	19.7%	28.0%	0.70×	5.08
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.1%	19.6%	22.3%	0.88×	5.10
Monaco to score 3+ in a row	14.9%	12.1%	13.8%	0.88×	8.26
Lille to score 3+ in a row	6.5%	5.5%	9.2%	0.60×	18.03

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille corners (+3.5)	84.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Monaco corners (+3.5)	81.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lille corners (+2.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Monaco corners (+2.5)	73.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lille corners (+1.5)	68.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Monaco corners (+1.5)	63.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lille corners (-1.5)	36.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monaco corners (-1.5)	31.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lille corners (-2.5)	26.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Monaco corners (-2.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lille corners (-3.5)	18.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Monaco corners (-3.5)	15.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.8%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	60.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	60.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	39.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	39.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.6%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.72
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.50
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.51
1-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.51
2-0	7.9%	7.4%	7.5%	0.98×	13.50
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-1	5.1%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
0-2	4.2%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.29
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	3.87×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.80×	58.32
Any other score	3.2%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2nd half DNB)	63.9%	62.7%	60.9%	1.03×	1.59
Lille (2nd half DNB)	36.1%	37.3%	39.1%	0.95×	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco leading at HT (DNB)	55.7%	57.1%	54.1%	1.06×	1.75
Lille leading at HT (DNB)	44.3%	42.9%	45.9%	0.93×	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or Lille (12)	75.5%	75.6%	77.4%	0.98×	1.32
Monaco or draw (1X)	72.1%	72.1%	68.7%	1.05×	1.39
Lille or draw (X2)	52.4%	52.6%	53.8%	0.98×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw at HT	76.5%	79.0%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Lille or draw at HT	70.5%	75.0%	66.6%	1.13×	1.33
Monaco or Lille at HT	53.0%	47.9%	61.6%	0.78×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw (1UP)	72.1%	79.6%	73.1%	1.09×	1.26
Lille or draw (1UP)	52.4%	58.7%	61.5%	0.95×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw in 2nd half	75.3%	75.7%	73.1%	1.04×	1.32
Monaco or Lille in 2nd half	68.3%	65.7%	68.7%	0.96×	1.52
Lille or draw in 2nd half	56.4%	58.1%	58.1%	1.00×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.9%	61.5%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.1%	38.5%	43.0%	0.90×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (DNB)	63.1%	62.7%	59.6%	1.05×	1.59
Lille (DNB)	36.9%	37.3%	40.4%	0.92×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score first	54.4%	53.5%	50.3%	1.06×	1.87
Lille to score first	39.7%	32.9%	43.5%	0.76×	3.04
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.9%	55.0%	54.7%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.1%	45.0%	45.3%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.3%	41.6%	44.9%	0.93×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.0%	34.6%	35.3%	0.98×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.9%	82.6%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.1%	17.4%	15.5%	1.12×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.1%	67.2%	69.4%	0.97×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.9%	32.8%	30.6%	1.07×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.4%	59.9%	57.2%	1.05×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	29.7%	27.5%	24.2%	1.13×	3.64
Both score 1st half only	9.7%	6.9%	12.4%	0.55×	14.58
Both score in both halves	5.2%	6.8%	6.5%	1.04×	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.1%	85.0%	81.2%	1.05×	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	14.9%	15.0%	18.8%	0.80×	6.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.5%	52.7%	59.7%	0.88×	1.90
A half without a goal	47.5%	47.3%	40.3%	1.17×	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	43.3%	1.09×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.7%	26.6%	30.9%	0.86×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.8%	22.9%	22.5%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.9%	33.5%	1.07×	2.78
Lille to score exactly 0	30.5%	33.8%	29.8%	1.13×	2.96
Lille to score exactly 2	21.5%	22.3%	21.4%	1.04×	4.49
Lille to score 3+	11.8%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score exactly 1	32.0%	32.6%	31.8%	1.03×	3.07
Monaco to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.5%	24.1%	1.10×	3.77
Monaco to score 3+	22.4%	23.3%	22.6%	1.03×	4.29
Monaco to score exactly 0	19.6%	18.8%	21.9%	0.86×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.0%	52.1%	38.4%	1.36×	1.92
Monaco leading at HT	29.5%	25.0%	33.4%	0.75×	4.00
Lille leading at HT	23.5%	21.0%	28.4%	0.74×	4.77

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco -1: 2	52.4%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Monaco -1: 1	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Monaco -1: X	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:1)	52.4%	51.3%	53.8%	0.95×	1.95
Monaco (0:1)	24.9%	24.2%	24.5%	0.99×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	21.9%	1.11×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:2)	75.1%	79.3%	75.5%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.5%	11.0%	14.8%	0.75×	9.09
Monaco (0:2)	10.4%	11.0%	9.9%	1.11×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:3)	89.6%	90.7%	90.1%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.8%	5.8%	5.9%	0.98×	17.22
Monaco (0:3)	3.6%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.03

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:4)	96.4%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.6%	1.2%	2.8%	0.44×	81.82
Monaco (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.99

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (1:0)	72.1%	72.4%	68.7%	1.05×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.6%	17.1%	14.6%	1.17×	5.85
Lille (1:0)	11.3%	12.7%	16.8%	0.75×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2:0)	88.7%	88.5%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.7%	6.4%	9.9%	0.64×	15.68
Lille (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	57.5%	59.2%	48.2%	1.23×	1.69
Halves equal	22.7%	24.3%	26.0%	0.94×	4.11
1st half highest scoring	19.8%	19.9%	26.0%	0.77×	5.01

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to concede	69.5%	66.7%	70.2%	0.95×	1.50
Monaco clean sheet	30.5%	33.3%	29.8%	1.12×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco clean sheet in 1st half	64.1%	63.6%	57.9%	1.10×	1.57
Monaco to concede in 1st half	35.9%	36.4%	42.1%	0.86×	2.75

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to concede in 2nd half	52.5%	52.7%	50.2%	1.05×	1.90
Monaco clean sheet in 2nd half	47.5%	47.3%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 6.5 corners	81.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Monaco over 2.5 corners	72.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Monaco under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Monaco under 4.5 corners	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Monaco over 3.5 corners	56.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Monaco under 3.5 corners	43.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Monaco over 4.5 corners	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Monaco over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Monaco under 2.5 corners	27.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Monaco over 6.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 3.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Monaco over 0.5 goals	80.4%	82.2%	78.1%	1.05×	1.22
Monaco under 2.5 goals	77.6%	77.7%	77.4%	1.00×	1.29
Monaco under 1.5 goals	51.6%	53.2%	53.5%	0.99×	1.88
Monaco over 1.5 goals	48.4%	46.8%	46.5%	1.01×	2.14
Monaco over 2.5 goals	22.4%	22.3%	22.6%	0.99×	4.49
Monaco under 0.5 goals	19.6%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.62
Monaco over 3.5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	8.4%	0.92×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 1.5 in 1st half	89.9%	90.3%	87.1%	1.04×	1.11
Monaco under 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	56.8%	51.8%	1.10×	1.76
Monaco over 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	43.2%	48.2%	0.90×	2.31
Monaco over 1.5 in 1st half	10.1%	9.7%	12.9%	0.75×	10.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco scores more in 2nd half	49.3%	47.6%	40.9%	1.16×	2.10
Monaco scores equally in both	32.9%	33.0%	36.6%	0.90×	3.03
Monaco scores more in 1st half	17.9%	15.5%	22.6%	0.68×	6.47

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (home no bet)	53.2%	51.4%	58.1%	0.88×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	46.8%	48.6%	41.9%	1.16×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco even goals	51.9%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Monaco odd goals	48.1%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.6%	39.4%	28.5%	1.38×	2.54
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.4%	21.4%	1.14×	4.10
HT 0-1	16.7%	18.6%	16.8%	1.10×	5.39
HT 1-1	8.9%	6.9%	9.5%	0.73×	14.46
HT 2-0	5.4%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.52
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.4%	5.2%	0.46×	42.04
Any other HT score	2.7%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.10
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.4%	3.3%	0.73×	42.12
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.15
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco at HT / Monaco at FT	23.5%	21.8%	27.8%	0.79×	4.58
Draw at HT / Monaco at FT	20.5%	21.7%	15.1%	1.44×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.9%	12.7%	12.7%	1.00×	7.90
Lille at HT / Lille at FT	14.5%	12.7%	18.9%	0.67×	7.90
Draw at HT / Lille at FT	11.6%	12.6%	10.9%	1.16×	7.91
Lille at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	6.1%	0.99×	16.68
Monaco at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	4.1%	0.85×	28.61
Lille at HT / Monaco at FT	3.6%	3.5%	3.7%	0.95×	28.63
Monaco at HT / Lille at FT	1.7%	3.5%	1.8%	1.97×	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score last	54.4%	52.2%	53.0%	0.99×	1.91
Lille to score last	39.7%	38.8%	40.8%	0.95×	2.58
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Monaco to lead by 1 at any time	63.1%	61.4%	59.0%	1.04×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.2%	44.6%	51.6%	0.86×	2.24
Lille to lead by 1 at any time	46.0%	44.5%	48.8%	0.91×	2.25
Monaco to lead by 2 at any time	31.6%	29.8%	30.0%	0.99×	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	15.0%	19.8%	0.75×	6.69
Lille to lead by 2 at any time	16.8%	14.9%	21.7%	0.69×	6.70
Monaco to lead by 3 at any time	12.8%	10.5%	11.7%	0.90×	9.56
Lille to lead by 3 at any time	5.0%	1.7%	8.3%	0.20×	59.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille most corners	47.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Monaco most corners	41.5%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	85.2%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.5%	78.7%	76.8%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	72.4%	74.0%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.5%	72.4%	69.1%	1.05×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.8%	63.3%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	60.7%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.0%	53.2%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.8%	48.5%	46.5%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	43.3%	1.12×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.6%	43.6%	38.8%	1.12×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	38.1%	1.03×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.7%	30.2%	30.9%	0.98×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.5%	24.5%	26.0%	0.94×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.0%	14.8%	13.4%	1.10×	6.75
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco never behind	48.0%	56.6%	51.2%	1.11×	1.77
Lille never behind	31.0%	36.1%	41.0%	0.88×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.1%	57.7%	51.6%	1.12×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.9%	42.3%	48.4%	0.87×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.5%	82.3%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.8%	66.3%	65.6%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.5%	52.5%	54.9%	0.96×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.5%	47.5%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.2%	33.7%	34.4%	0.98×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	22.5%	1.01×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.5%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	8.6%	0.90×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	6.4%	1.22×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.7%	92.4%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.6%	81.1%	79.4%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.1%	72.4%	71.0%	1.02×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.9%	55.8%	56.7%	0.98×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.1%	44.2%	43.3%	1.02×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.9%	27.6%	29.0%	0.95×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.4%	18.9%	20.6%	0.92×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.3%	7.6%	9.4%	0.81×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	3.9%	0.72×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.4%	92.6%	87.4%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.4%	71.9%	66.5%	1.08×	1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.4%	63.2%	71.5%	0.88×	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.6%	36.8%	28.5%	1.29×	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.6%	28.1%	33.5%	0.84×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.6%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.54

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.1%	83.2%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.0%	77.4%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	53.2%	49.8%	1.07×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	46.8%	50.2%	0.93×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.0%	22.6%	24.7%	0.92×	4.42
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.9%	16.8%	18.2%	0.92×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille not to score in both halves	81.1%	84.3%	77.8%	1.08×	1.19
Monaco not to score in both halves	72.5%	73.9%	67.8%	1.09×	1.35
Monaco to score in both halves	27.5%	26.1%	32.2%	0.81×	3.83
Lille to score in both halves	18.9%	15.7%	22.2%	0.71×	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.9%	58.6%	54.7%	1.07×	1.71
Only Monaco scores	24.5%	22.3%	23.6%	0.94×	4.49
Only Lille scores	13.6%	11.0%	15.7%	0.71×	9.06
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.1%	6.4%	1.12×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.7%	22.6%	22.7%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.7%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.8%	17.5%	16.2%	1.07×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.7%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	6.4%	1.20×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.6%	37.4%	28.5%	1.31×	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.4%	38.1%	0.98×	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	18.0%	15.7%	21.1%	0.74×	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	7.6%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.54

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.9%	51.5%	49.8%	1.04×	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.2%	29.3%	32.2%	0.91×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	15.9%	16.4%	18.2%	0.90×	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille not to win both halves	94.2%	94.2%	90.7%	1.04×	1.06
Monaco not to win both halves	87.2%	87.9%	83.6%	1.05×	1.14
Monaco to win both halves	12.8%	12.1%	16.4%	0.74×	8.24
Lille to win both halves	5.8%	5.8%	9.3%	0.63×	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win either half	60.2%	65.0%	58.9%	1.10×	1.54
Lille to win neither half	57.6%	59.1%	54.1%	1.09×	1.69
Lille to win either half	42.4%	40.9%	45.9%	0.89×	2.44
Monaco to win neither half	39.8%	35.0%	41.1%	0.85×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille not to win to nil	86.4%	88.1%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
Monaco not to win to nil	75.5%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Monaco to win to nil	24.5%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57
Lille to win to nil	13.6%	11.9%	15.7%	0.76×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.5%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Monaco by 1	22.7%	24.1%	21.9%	1.10×	4.15
Lille by 1	16.6%	17.0%	14.6%	1.17×	5.87
Monaco by 2	14.5%	11.8%	14.8%	0.80×	8.50
Monaco by 3+	10.4%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.51
Lille by 2	7.7%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91
Lille by 3+	3.6%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.79