Monaco v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 14
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.28
Goals − xG
-0.55 – +1.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
52.5%
Draw
21.2%
Lorient win
26.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.32–1.39 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 68% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 1.55 xGLorient 1.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 6' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 7' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 9' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 11' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 19' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 21' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 34' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 43' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.24 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 45' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 46' |
Monaco |
Wout Faes | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 54' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 55' |
Lorient |
Montassar Talbi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 57' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 59' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 61' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 62' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 67' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bamo Meïté |
| 75' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 75' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 84' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Dermane Karim |
| 86' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Noah Cadiou |
| 90' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.72 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Teze DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Kassoum Ouattara DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Vanderson Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Paris Brunner Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| Igor Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Martin Bley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathaniel Adjei Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Mvuka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |