Monaco v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 13
On target
2 – 9
Shots in box
2 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 1.06
Goals − xG
+0.20 – +0.96
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
39.5%
Draw
20.9%
Lyon win
39.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLLWWWDWDL last 10
scored 16
from 11.3 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Lyon have scored 18 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 13.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLWDWDWLW last 10
scored 18
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.70–1.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.98–1.18 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 0.80 xGLyon 2.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 17' |
Monaco |
Caio Henrique | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 35' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 37' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.84 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 41' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 43' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 48' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Folarin Balogun |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 65' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 74' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 78' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 87' |
Lyon |
Adam Karabec | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 88' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Orel Mangala |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.50 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Teze MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleksandr Golovin MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Philipp Köhn Sub | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly MC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Kassoum Ouattara Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DR | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 1.30 | 0.52 |
| Corentin Tolisso MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.49 |
| Afonso Moreira FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.69 |
| Tyler Morton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.52 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ruben Kluivert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Pavel Sulc FW | 89 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Abner MC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Orel Mangala Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Martín Satriano Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |