Monaco v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 8
On target
10 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.11 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.08 – -0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
53.8%
Draw
21.1%
Marseille win
25.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.14–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 2.92 xGMarseille 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Marseille |
Luis Henrique | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 12' |
Marseille |
Luis Henrique | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 16' |
 Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 21' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vanderson |
| 33' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Denis Zakaria |
| 36' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 41' |
Marseille |
Luis Henrique | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ulisses García |
| 44' |
Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Wilfried Stephane Singo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 58' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vanderson |
| 62' |
Marseille |
Amar Dedic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 66' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 73' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismael Bennacer |
| 76' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 90' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | George Ilenikhena |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrien Rabiot AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Amir Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.68 |
| Ulisses García DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| Jonathan Rowe FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.68 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Amine Gouiri Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Amar Dedic Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ismael Bennacer Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Pol Lirola Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Harit Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Zakaria MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| Maghnes Akliouche MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Vanderson DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.73 |
| Wilfried Stephane Singo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| Takumi Minamino ML | 70 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.08 | 0.66 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Folarin Balogun Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soungoutou Magassa Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Mohammed Salisu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |