Monaco v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.38 – -1.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
44.3%
Draw
25.2%
Marseille win
30.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLLWWWDWDL last 10
scored 16
from 11.3 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 19.4 xG
conceded 14
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.50 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 1.62 xGMarseille 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 12' |
Monaco |
Eric Dier | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Flávio Nazinho |
| 12' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.43 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 21' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stanis Idumbo Muzambo |
| 22' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vanderson |
| 24' |
 Marseille |
Amine Harit | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 27' |
Marseille |
Amine Harit | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 31' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Harit |
| 37' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 46' |
Marseille |
Keyliane Abdallah | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Emerson |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Keyliane Abdallah |
| 52' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eric Dier |
| 70' |
Marseille |
Keyliane Abdallah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 78' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 79' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 88' |
Marseille |
Neal Maupay | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Harit |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Keyliane Abdallah | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Marseille |
Faris Moumbagna | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keyliane Abdallah |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Harit AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 1.08 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 1.04 |
| CJ Egan-Riley DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.86 |
| Jeffrey de Lange GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Angel Gomes AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Quinten Timber AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Keyliane Abdallah Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.62 | 0.87 |
| Naif Aguerd Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tochukwu Nnadi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Neal Maupay Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Faris Moumbagna Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lamine Camara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Flávio Nazinho DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Vanderson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.61 |
| Paris Brunner FW | 83 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.08 |
| Matthis Abline Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anis Soubeir Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathys Detourbet Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |