Monaco v Metz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+1.49 – +0.09
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
79.7%
Draw
13.4%
Metz win
6.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.67–0.67 | 2-0 13% | 65% | 45% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 3.51 xGMetz 1.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Metz attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly |
| 19' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 27' |
 Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.80 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Takumi Minamino |
| 30' |
Monaco |
Kassoum Ouattara | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly |
| 39' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lamine Camara |
| 47' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fode Toure |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 49' |
Metz |
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 50' |
Metz |
Fode Toure | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Fischer |
| 57' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 66' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 70' |
Metz |
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 71' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 82' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Krépin Diatta |
| 85' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.00 | From Corner | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 86' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 90' |
Monaco |
Krépin Diatta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Stanis Idumbo Muzambo |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 1.12 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.24 |
| Maghnes Akliouche MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.68 |
| Jordan Teze DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Takumi Minamino ML | 83 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 1.32 |
| Kassoum Ouattara DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 1.22 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| Paris Brunner FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.12 | 0.24 | 1.64 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.28 | 0.74 |
| Caio Henrique Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.84 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 1.07 |
| Koffi Kouao DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Maxime Colin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Benjamin Stambouli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Terry Yegbe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Fode Toure DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Jessy Deminguet MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Alpha Touré Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Guerti Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Bokele Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |