Monaco v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 13 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.45
Goals − xG
+0.80 – -0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
57.4%
Draw
20.5%
Nantes win
22.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWWWDWDLD last 10
scored 15
from 11.5 xG
conceded 13
from 12.9 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.77–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.87–1.12 | 2-1 9% | 76% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 2.20 xGNantes 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rémy Cabella |
| 7' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 8' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 17' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vanderson |
| 17' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 18' |
Monaco |
Wout Faes | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 21' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 24' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 29' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 37' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 39' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 43' |
Nantes |
Deiver Machado | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Deiver Machado |
| 45' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 49' |
Nantes |
Abakar Sylla | 0.32 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 55' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 61' |
Nantes |
Deiver Machado | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 80' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 82' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 83' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 92' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabien Centonze |
| 93' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Adingra AML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.16 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Vanderson DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.75 |
| Lamine Camara DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.52 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMR | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Teze Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dehmaine Assoumani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| Matthis Abline FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Fabien Centonze DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.43 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ali Youssif DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rémy Cabella AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Francis Coquelin MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Abakar Sylla DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nicolas Cozza Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Ignatius Ganago Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Johann Lepenant Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Youssef El-Arabi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |