Monaco v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 17
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 0.37
Goals − xG
+0.36 – -1.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
29.1%
Draw
20.0%
Paris Saint Germain win
50.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–2.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–2.29 | 1-2 8% | 76% | 73% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 0.64 xGParis Saint Germain 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Monaco |
Mohammed Salisu | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 19' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 21' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Hernández |
| 25' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 27' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabián |
| 32' |
Monaco |
Mohammed Salisu | 0.22 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Caio Henrique |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Neves |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 39' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 40' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 52' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 54' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 57' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 67' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 71' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Quentin Ndjantou |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Neves |
| 81' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Quentin Ndjantou | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 86' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 96' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Neves MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.86 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.91 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Fabián MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.55 |
| Lee Kang-In FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Senny Mayulu FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Quentin Ndjantou Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lamine Camara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Jordan Teze DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takumi Minamino AMC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AML | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| Vanderson DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Pogba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |