Monaco v Reims — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 9
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
18 – 7
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.12 – -0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
65.0%
Draw
21.6%
Reims win
13.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.34–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 4.12 xGReims 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Reims attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Al Musrati |
| 10' |
 Reims |
Junya Ito | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 13' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 14' |
Monaco |
Al Musrati | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Al Musrati | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 18' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 19' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 23' |
Monaco |
Al Musrati | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 31' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vanderson |
| 33' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Caio Henrique |
| 36' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 37' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 42' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.91 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Reims |
Junya Ito | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Akieme |
| 57' |
Reims |
Sergio Akieme | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentin Atangana Edoa |
| 60' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Junya Ito |
| 64' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oumar Diakité |
| 70' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 71' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Monaco |
Ben Seghir | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Al Musrati |
| 82' |
Reims |
Oumar Diakité | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Teddy Teuma |
| 83' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Mawissa Elebi |
| 83' |
Monaco |
Lucas Michal | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ben Seghir |
| 85' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Reims |
Sergio Akieme | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.45 | 1.29 |
| Al Musrati DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1.36 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Radoslaw Majecki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.23 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.37 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 2.34 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 81 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2.83 | 0.00 | 2.84 |
| Breel Embolo AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.14 | 0.99 |
| Takumi Minamino AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 1.25 |
| Vanderson DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1.22 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Michal Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Camara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keito Nakamura FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.52 |
| Sergio Akieme DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.37 |
| Teddy Teuma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| Mory Gbane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Joseph Okumu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| John Finn MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Hiroki Sekine DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Junya Ito FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.05 | 0.47 |
| Malcolm Jeng DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Diakité Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Mamadou Diakhon Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |