Monaco v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 1.03
Goals − xG
+0.64 – +0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
48.1%
Draw
25.5%
Strasbourg win
26.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.70–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.36–0.92 | 2-0 10% | 64% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 2.36 xGStrasbourg 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Denis Zakaria |
| 5' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 20' |
 Strasbourg |
Felix Lemarechal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Luís |
| 21' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 22' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.17 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 23' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 35' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 37' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Felix Lemarechal |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lamine Camara |
| 54' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 56' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 60' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 64' |
Strasbourg |
Dilane Bakwa | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kendry Páez |
| 72' |
Strasbourg |
Dilane Bakwa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw |
| 75' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 79' |
Monaco |
Eric Dier | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 81' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | George Ilenikhena |
| 81' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 85' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 85' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 90' |
Strasbourg |
Felix Lemarechal | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rabby Nzingoula |
| 95' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.98 | 0.04 | 1.09 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 1.71 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.91 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| Jordan Teze DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.66 |
| Mika Biereth AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Lamine Camara DMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| Aladji Bamba Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.74 |
| Philipp Köhn Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takumi Minamino Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Felix Lemarechal AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Valentín Barco AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| Rafael Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Diego Moreira DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Mathis Amougou MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kendry Páez Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.06 | 0.49 |
| Dilane Bakwa Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Samir El Mourabet Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Rabby Nzingoula Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |