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Monaco v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 December 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–0
2.80 – 0.23 xG
Shots
19 – 6
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.82 – -0.23
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Wilfried Stephane Singo 49' — goalBreel Embolo 81' — goal
Monaco 2.82 xGToulouse 0.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

George Ilenikhena 2' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 10' — Shot On Post (0.36 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 12' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 13' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 13' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 19' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Djibril Sidibe 25' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Maghnes Akliouche 26' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 28' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Aleksandr Golovin 34' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 34' — Shot On Post (0.44 xG, Open Play)Takumi Minamino 39' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 45' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Wilfried Stephane Singo 49' — Goal (0.37 xG, Set Piece)Gabriel Suazo 59' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ben Seghir 63' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 75' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Zakaria Aboukhlal 76' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 77' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Joshua King 78' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ben Seghir 80' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Breel Embolo 81' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Suazo 85' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Miha Zajc 88' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Breel Embolo 90' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)
Monaco attacking right Toulouse attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.13 Open Play — Missed Shot Caio Henrique
10' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Aleksandr Golovin
12' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Caio Henrique
13' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
13' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Eliot Matazo
19' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Aleksandr Golovin
25' Toulouse Djibril Sidibe 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Zakaria Aboukhlal
26' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Vanderson
28' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Vanderson
34' Monaco Aleksandr Golovin 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Vanderson
34' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.44 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post —
39' Monaco Takumi Minamino 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Caio Henrique
45' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Takumi Minamino
49' Monaco Wilfried Stephane Singo 0.37 Set Piece — Goal Lamine Camara
59' Toulouse Gabriel Suazo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Zakaria Aboukhlal
63' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Maghnes Akliouche
75' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Ben Seghir
76' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joshua King
77' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Breel Embolo
78' Toulouse Joshua King 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Charlie Cresswell
80' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Aleksandr Golovin
81' Monaco Breel Embolo 0.47 Open Play — Goal —
85' Toulouse Gabriel Suazo 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Aron Dønnum
88' Toulouse Miha Zajc 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Zakaria Aboukhlal
90' Monaco Breel Embolo 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Maghnes Akliouche

Players

Monaco

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Maghnes Akliouche AMR 90 0 0 6 2 0.37 0.21 0.69
Wilfried Stephane Singo DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.37 0.00 0.62
Aleksandr Golovin AML 90 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.43 0.99
Caio Henrique DL 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.27 0.41
Vanderson DR 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.16 0.70
Thilo Kehrer DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.87
Radoslaw Majecki GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Lamine Camara DMC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.37 0.40
Takumi Minamino AMC 82 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.13 0.46
George Ilenikhena FW 66 0 0 6 0 1.27 0.00 1.27
Eliot Matazo DMC 66 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.24
Breel Embolo Sub 24 1 0 2 1 0.62 0.11 0.75
Ben Seghir Sub 24 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.03 0.10
Kassoum Ouattara Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jordan Teze Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC 90 0 0 1 3 0.09 0.09 0.13
Gabriel Suazo DML 90 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.04
Djibril Sidibe DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Joshua King FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.09 0.11
Charlie Cresswell DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Mark McKenzie DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Guillaume Restes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aron Dønnum DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.04
Yann Gboho AMC 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vincent Sierro MC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Niklas Schmidt Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shavy Babicka Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Miha Zajc Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Frank Magri Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Warren Kamanzi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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