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Montpellier v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 10 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

3–1
3.04 – 1.89 xG
Shots
14 – 19
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.61 – 1.51
Goals − xG
-0.04 – -0.93
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.72.63.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Arnaud Nordin 5' — goalWahbi Khazri 11' — goalJonas Martin 49' — goalTanguy Coulibaly 83' — goal
Montpellier 3.04 xGBrest 1.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Arnaud Nordin 5' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Ibrahim Salah 7' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 8' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 11' — Goal (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Romain Faivre 12' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 18' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Pierre Lees-Melou 19' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 19' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jordan Amavi 24' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Mousa Al Tamari 27' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jordan Ferri 28' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Salah 32' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Jordan Amavi 39' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 42' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Luc Zogbe 43' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Luc Zogbe 46' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Birama Touré 46' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 47' — Missed Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Salah 49' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Jonas Martin 49' — Goal (0.63 xG, Set Piece)Rabby Nzingoula 52' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Arnaud Nordin 59' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Mama Baldé 65' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Abdallah Sima 69' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Pierre Lees-Melou 69' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Hugo Magnetti 74' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Niakhate Ndiaye 77' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Tanguy Coulibaly 83' — Goal (0.63 xG, Open Play)Kamory Doumbia 88' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Abdallah Sima 90' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Abdallah Sima 92' — Saved Shot (0.51 xG, Set Piece)Jordan Amavi 92' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)
Montpellier attacking right Brest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.76 Right Foot Goal
7' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Hugo Magnetti
8' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Wahbi Khazri
11' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Goal
12' Brest Romain Faivre 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot Ibrahim Salah
18' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Wahbi Khazri
19' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Hugo Magnetti
19' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Issiaga Sylla
24' Brest Jordan Amavi 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
27' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
28' Montpellier Jordan Ferri 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Akor Adams
32' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mama Baldé
39' Brest Jordan Amavi 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pierre Lees-Melou
42' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Birama Touré
43' Brest Luc Zogbe 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
46' Brest Luc Zogbe 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
46' Montpellier Birama Touré 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jordan Ferri
47' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.43 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Wahbi Khazri
47' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
49' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
49' Brest Jonas Martin 0.63 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Ibrahim Salah
52' Montpellier Rabby Nzingoula 0.01 Set Piece Saved Shot Wahbi Khazri
59' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.76 Right Foot Saved Shot
65' Brest Mama Baldé 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jordan Amavi
69' Brest Abdallah Sima 0.11 From Corner Saved Shot Romain Del Castillo
69' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
74' Brest Hugo Magnetti 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
77' Brest Niakhate Ndiaye 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
83' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.63 Open Play Left Foot Goal Othmane Maamma
88' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
90' Brest Abdallah Sima 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
92' Brest Abdallah Sima 0.51 Set Piece Saved Shot Romain Del Castillo
92' Brest Jordan Amavi 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Luc Zogbe

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jordan Amavi DL 90 0 0 3 1 0.12 0.02 0.05
Pierre Lees-Melou MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.03 0.06
Luc Zogbe DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.02 0.08
Niakhate Ndiaye DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.05
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brendan Chardonnet DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Mama Baldé FW 89 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.13 0.16
Hugo Magnetti MC 79 0 0 1 2 0.01 0.04 0.10
Ibrahim Salah FWL 66 0 1 3 2 0.22 0.69 0.22
Romain Faivre FWR 66 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Jonas Martin MC 65 1 0 1 0 0.63 0.00 0.09
Kamory Doumbia Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Abdallah Sima Sub 24 0 0 3 0 0.65 0.00 0.04
Romain Del Castillo Sub 24 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.65 0.02
Mahdi Camara Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pereira Lage Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jordan Ferri DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.04 1.15
Wahbi Khazri AMC 90 1 0 2 4 0.04 0.56 1.26
Modibo Sagnan DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Issiaga Sylla DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
Nikola Maksimovic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Rabby Nzingoula DMC 89 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.63
Arnaud Nordin AML 76 1 0 4 0 2.04 0.00 0.62
Mousa Al Tamari AMR 76 0 0 3 0 0.19 0.00 0.60
Birama Touré Sub 52 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.07 0.11
Akor Adams FW 38 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.16
Tanguy Coulibaly Sub 14 1 0 1 0 0.63 0.00 0.63
Othmane Maamma Sub 14 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.63 0.63
Junior Ndiaye Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Théo Chennahi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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