Montpellier v Guingamp — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 January 2027 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627
FRA-Ligue 2
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Montpellier win
53.0%
Draw
26.1%
Guingamp win
20.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Montpellier are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLLDLLL last 10
scored 2
from 6.4 xG
conceded 21
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.52–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.33–0.78 | 1-0 16% | 35% | 40% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.