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Montpellier v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 December 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–2
1.28 – 2.06 xG
Shots
11 – 13
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 1.57
Goals − xG
+0.72 – -0.07
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.72.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jonathan Christian David 43' — goalIssiaga Sylla 46' — goalJonathan Christian David 53' — goalArnaud Nordin 92' — goal
Montpellier 1.28 xGLille 2.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wahbi Khazri 1' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Ngal'ayel Mukau 3' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rémy Cabella 7' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 14' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Becir Omeragic 15' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ferri 22' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Aissa Mandi 35' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Mitchel Bakker 36' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Rémy Cabella 37' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mitchel Bakker 38' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 40' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Christian David 43' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Issiaga Sylla 46' — Goal (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Christian David 53' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mitchel Bakker 60' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Rémy Cabella 60' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nikola Maksimovic 63' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Rabby Nzingoula 66' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 71' — Shot On Post (0.38 xG, Open Play)Osame Sahraoui 73' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 92' — Goal (0.59 xG, Open Play)Tanguy Coulibaly 92' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Gudmundsson 96' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Hákon Haraldsson 100' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Montpellier attacking right Lille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Nikola Maksimovic
3' Lille Ngal'ayel Mukau 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ayyoub Bouaddi
7' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mitchel Bakker
14' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Enzo Tchato Mbiayi
15' Montpellier Becir Omeragic 0.06 Open Play Saved Shot Issiaga Sylla
22' Montpellier Jordan Ferri 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Téji Savanier
35' Lille Aissa Mandi 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Matias Fernandez-Pardo
36' Lille Mitchel Bakker 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
37' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matias Fernandez-Pardo
38' Lille Mitchel Bakker 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jonathan Christian David
40' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Arnaud Nordin
43' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.76 Right Foot Goal
46' Montpellier Issiaga Sylla 0.05 From Corner Goal Téji Savanier
53' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.76 Right Foot Goal
60' Lille Mitchel Bakker 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
60' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Benjamin André
63' Montpellier Nikola Maksimovic 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Modibo Sagnan
66' Montpellier Rabby Nzingoula 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joris Chotard
71' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Téji Savanier
73' Lille Osame Sahraoui 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Benjamin André
92' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.59 Open Play Right Foot Goal
92' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot Mousa Al Tamari
96' Lille Gabriel Gudmundsson 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Osame Sahraoui
100' Lille Hákon Haraldsson 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Aissa Mandi

Players

Lille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jonathan Christian David FW 90 2 0 2 1 1.52 0.06 0.06
Aissa Mandi DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.08 0.17
Matias Fernandez-Pardo AMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.04 0.25
Lucas Chevalier GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benjamin André DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 0.24
Bafode Diakite DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.17
Alexsandro Ribeiro DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Mitchel Bakker DL 79 0 0 3 1 0.13 0.09 0.19
Rémy Cabella AML 70 0 0 3 0 0.19 0.00 0.19
Ngal'ayel Mukau AMC 70 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.17
Hákon Haraldsson Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Osame Sahraoui Sub 20 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.04 0.11
Gabriel Gudmundsson Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Mohamed Bayo Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thomas Meunier Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Arnaud Nordin AML 90 1 0 1 1 0.59 0.02 0.62
Mousa Al Tamari AMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.39 0.06 0.45
Issiaga Sylla DL 90 1 0 1 1 0.05 0.06 0.06
Nikola Maksimovic DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.02
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.07
Joris Chotard DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.39
Téji Savanier AMC 83 0 1 1 3 0.02 0.46 0.47
Becir Omeragic DC 65 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Jordan Ferri DMC 65 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.06
Wahbi Khazri FW 65 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Rabby Nzingoula Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Modibo Sagnan Sub 25 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Junior Ndiaye Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Tanguy Coulibaly Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Gabriel Barès Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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