Montpellier v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
3 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.34 – +2.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Montpellier win
16.5%
Draw
24.7%
Lyon win
58.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Montpellier are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLLDLLL last 10
scored 2
from 6.4 xG
conceded 21
from 19.5 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–2.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Montpellier 1.34 xGLyon 1.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Montpellier attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 2' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 7' |
 Montpellier |
Jordan Ferri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Theo Sainte Luce |
| 7' |
Montpellier |
Téji Savanier | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andy Delort |
| 12' |
Montpellier |
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Montpellier |
Tanguy Coulibaly | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Téji Savanier |
| 38' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 39' |
Lyon |
Ernest Nuamah | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tanguy Coulibaly |
| 48' |
Montpellier |
Rabby Nzingoula | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tanguy Coulibaly |
| 49' |
Lyon |
Ernest Nuamah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nemanja Matic |
| 52' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ernest Nuamah |
| 57' |
Montpellier |
Andy Delort | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Tchato Mbiayi |
| 59' |
Montpellier |
Jordan Ferri | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Montpellier |
Téji Savanier | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Abner |
| 80' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexandre Lacazette |
| 80' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 81' |
Montpellier |
Wahbi Khazri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Téji Savanier |
| 91' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Montpellier
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Téji Savanier AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Joris Chotard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Enzo Tchato Mbiayi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Yael Mouanga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Theo Sainte Luce DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.70 |
| Benjamin Lecomte GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Tanguy Coulibaly FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 1.02 |
| Jordan Ferri MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andy Delort FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.74 |
| Rabby Nzingoula MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Khalil Fayad Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiki Kouyate Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wahbi Khazri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Junior Ndiaye Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Pays Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Nuamah AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.44 | 1.11 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Corentin Tolisso AMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.99 |
| Nemanja Matic DMC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.63 |
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Mathis Cherki AMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Alexandre Lacazette Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.08 | 0.60 |
| Thiago Almada Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Abner Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| Malick Fofana Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jordan Veretout Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |