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Montpellier v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 17 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

Montpellier
2–1
2.61 – 1.75 xG
Monaco
Shots
12 – 26
On target
4 – 11
Shots in box
8 – 17
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.49
Goals − xG
-0.61 – -0.75
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.52.22.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Thilo Kehrer 31' — goalMousa Al Tamari 54' — goalMousa Al Tamari 81' — goal
Montpellier 2.61 xGMonaco 1.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ben Seghir 1' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ben Seghir 10' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Salisu 14' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Ben Seghir 15' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Soungoutou Magassa 15' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Ben Seghir 16' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Salisu 17' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mika Biereth 18' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Issiaga Sylla 19' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Lamine Camara 20' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Takumi Minamino 23' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 24' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 26' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Takumi Minamino 29' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Issiaga Sylla 29' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lamine Camara 30' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Lamine Camara 30' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Soungoutou Magassa 30' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Thilo Kehrer 31' — Goal (0.27 xG, From Corner)Wahbi Khazri 34' — Saved Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 38' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 40' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 44' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 54' — Goal (0.75 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 56' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Issiaga Sylla 57' — Missed Shot (0.66 xG, From Corner)Ben Seghir 58' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 58' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Lucas Michal 63' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Arnaud Nordin 67' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Soungoutou Magassa 72' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Mousa Al Tamari 81' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 88' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 89' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 92' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 94' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Aleksandr Golovin 97' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Soungoutou Magassa 97' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Montpellier attacking right Monaco attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Takumi Minamino
10' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Maghnes Akliouche
14' Monaco Mohammed Salisu 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Lamine Camara
15' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mika Biereth
15' Monaco Soungoutou Magassa 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Lamine Camara
16' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jordan Teze
17' Monaco Mohammed Salisu 0.04 From Corner — Saved Shot Lamine Camara
18' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.06 Open Play — Saved Shot Kassoum Ouattara
19' Montpellier Issiaga Sylla 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Wahbi Khazri
20' Monaco Lamine Camara 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
23' Monaco Takumi Minamino 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jordan Teze
24' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
26' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
29' Monaco Takumi Minamino 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Maghnes Akliouche
29' Montpellier Issiaga Sylla 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rabby Nzingoula
30' Monaco Lamine Camara 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
30' Monaco Lamine Camara 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Maghnes Akliouche
30' Monaco Soungoutou Magassa 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
31' Monaco Thilo Kehrer 0.27 From Corner — Goal Lamine Camara
34' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mousa Al Tamari
38' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Takumi Minamino
40' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
44' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Ben Seghir
54' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.75 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
56' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
57' Montpellier Issiaga Sylla 0.66 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Rabby Nzingoula
58' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Takumi Minamino
58' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
63' Monaco Lucas Michal 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
67' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
72' Monaco Soungoutou Magassa 0.01 From Corner — Saved Shot Lamine Camara
81' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Arnaud Nordin
88' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vanderson
89' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Theo Sainte Luce
92' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aleksandr Golovin
94' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Aleksandr Golovin
97' Monaco Aleksandr Golovin 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mika Biereth
97' Monaco Soungoutou Magassa 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —

Players

Monaco

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mika Biereth FW 90 0 0 4 2 0.30 0.11 0.57
Thilo Kehrer DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.27 0.00 0.37
Lamine Camara DMC 90 0 1 3 5 0.22 0.44 0.44
Soungoutou Magassa DMC 90 0 0 4 0 0.13 0.00 0.39
Mohammed Salisu DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.17
Takumi Minamino AMC 90 0 0 2 3 0.05 0.14 0.54
Radoslaw Majecki GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Ben Seghir AML 79 0 0 5 1 0.31 0.12 0.54
Maghnes Akliouche AMR 63 0 0 3 3 0.29 0.14 0.54
Kassoum Ouattara DL 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.18
Jordan Teze DR 63 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.51
Vanderson Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.08
Caio Henrique Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucas Michal Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Breel Embolo Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Aleksandr Golovin Sub 7 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.19 0.22

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mousa Al Tamari FW 90 2 0 4 1 1.31 0.41 1.72
Téji Savanier MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.45
Modibo Sagnan DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Joris Chotard MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Becir Omeragic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yael Mouanga DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Issiaga Sylla DL 66 0 0 3 0 0.70 0.00 0.02
Wahbi Khazri FW 66 0 0 3 1 0.49 0.02 0.43
Rabby Nzingoula MC 66 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.68 0.44
Arnaud Nordin Sub 24 0 1 1 1 0.06 0.07 0.13
Theo Sainte Luce Sub 24 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.45 0.45
Khalil Fayad Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefan Dzodic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Othmane Maamma Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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