Montpellier v Reims — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.95 – -1.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Montpellier win
20.7%
Draw
26.0%
Reims win
53.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Montpellier are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLLDLLL last 10
scored 2
from 6.4 xG
conceded 21
from 19.5 xG
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.87–1.56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Montpellier 0.95 xGReims 1.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Montpellier attacking right
Reims attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Montpellier |
Jordan Ferri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Mincarelli Davin |
| 11' |
Montpellier |
Khalil Fayad | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tanguy Coulibaly |
| 14' |
Montpellier |
Jordan Ferri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Junior Ndiaye |
| 26' |
 Reims |
Cédric Kipré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Montpellier |
Khalil Fayad | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Ndiaye |
| 40' |
Montpellier |
Rabby Nzingoula | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Montpellier |
Tanguy Coulibaly | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aurélio Buta |
| 53' |
Montpellier |
Khalil Fayad | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Montpellier |
Theo Sainte Luce | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Mincarelli Davin |
| 55' |
Reims |
Mory Gbane | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 55' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joseph Okumu |
| 58' |
Montpellier |
Rabby Nzingoula | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Montpellier |
Junior Ndiaye | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Lecomte |
| 61' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amadou Koné |
| 70' |
Montpellier |
Khalil Fayad | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Montpellier |
Wahbi Khazri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Mincarelli Davin |
| 84' |
Reims |
Hiroki Sekine | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Diakhon |
| 89' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aurélio Buta |
| 90' |
Reims |
Sergio Akieme | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keito Nakamura ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.06 | 0.81 |
| Sergio Akieme DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mory Gbane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aurélio Buta DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| Joseph Okumu DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Amadou Koné MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Jordan Siebatcheu FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Diakhon Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Cédric Kipré DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nhoa Sangui Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Junya Ito MR | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hafiz Ibrahim Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hiroki Sekine Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gabriel Moscardo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Montpellier
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanguy Coulibaly MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Theo Sainte Luce DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rabby Nzingoula MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Becir Omeragic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Mincarelli Davin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| Yael Mouanga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Benjamin Lecomte GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Jordan Ferri MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Khalil Fayad ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Junior Ndiaye FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Wilfried Ndollo Bille DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Falaye Sacko Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wahbi Khazri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Téji Savanier Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |