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Montpellier v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 August 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–1
1.45 – 1.10 xG
Shots
8 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.97
Goals − xG
-0.45 – -0.10
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Habib Diarra 57' — goalTéji Savanier 66' — goal
Montpellier 1.45 xGStrasbourg 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Téji Savanier 1' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Pape Diong 15' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Pape Diong 16' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Guela Doué 20' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Akor Adams 30' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 32' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Pape Diong 34' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 35' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 38' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pape Diong 40' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 48' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 53' — Saved Shot (0.51 xG, Set Piece)Akor Adams 54' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 57' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Saidou Sow 61' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Mousa Al Tamari 63' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 66' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Saidou Sow 68' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Saidou Sow 101' — Saved Shot (0.18 xG, Set Piece)
Montpellier attacking right Strasbourg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
15' Strasbourg Pape Diong 0.03 From Corner Saved Shot Dilane Bakwa
16' Strasbourg Pape Diong 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Dilane Bakwa
20' Strasbourg Guela Doué 0.06 Set Piece Missed Shot Dilane Bakwa
30' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Jordan Ferri
32' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Téji Savanier
34' Strasbourg Pape Diong 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ismaël Doukouré
35' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mousa Al Tamari
38' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Téji Savanier
40' Strasbourg Pape Diong 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Caleb Wiley
48' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Junior Mwanga
53' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.51 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
54' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.06 Open Play Saved Shot Enzo Tchato Mbiayi
57' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ismaël Doukouré
61' Strasbourg Saidou Sow 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Dilane Bakwa
63' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
66' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.76 Right Foot Goal
68' Strasbourg Saidou Sow 0.05 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
101' Strasbourg Saidou Sow 0.18 Set Piece Saved Shot Dilane Bakwa

Players

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Téji Savanier AMC 90 1 0 2 2 0.77 0.41 0.48
Mousa Al Tamari AML 90 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.02 0.21
Modibo Sagnan DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jordan Ferri DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.13
Falaye Sacko DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.13
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Becir Omeragic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Joris Chotard DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Arnaud Nordin AMR 89 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.18
Akor Adams FW 81 0 0 3 0 0.44 0.00 0.44
Othmane Maamma Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tanguy Coulibaly Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Emanuel Emegha FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.51 0.00 0.04
Saidou Sow DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.28 0.00 0.07
Guela Doué DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.07
Dilane Bakwa DMR 90 0 0 1 5 0.02 0.41 0.07
Caleb Wiley DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Karl-Johan Johnsson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Junior Mwanga MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Ismaël Doukouré MC 87 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.08 0.08
Habib Diarra AMC 82 1 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Pape Diong AMC 47 0 0 4 0 0.18 0.00 0.07
Abakar Sylla DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Marvin Senaya Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Diego Moreira Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nordine Kandil Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Karol Fila Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeremy Sebas Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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