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Montpellier v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 27 October 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

0–3
0.24 – 2.89 xG
Shots
9 – 15
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
3 – 11
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.30
Goals − xG
-0.24 – +0.11
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Zakaria Aboukhlal 4' — goalZakaria Aboukhlal 7' — goalJoshua King 26' — goal
Montpellier 0.24 xGToulouse 2.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Zakaria Aboukhlal 4' — Goal (0.62 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 7' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 19' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 21' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Joshua King 26' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 32' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Wahbi Khazri 33' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Téji Savanier 37' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 40' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Warren Kamanzi 41' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 45' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 46' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 46' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Joshua King 50' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Charlie Cresswell 58' — Saved Shot (0.16 xG, From Corner)Joshua King 58' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Joshua King 60' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 68' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 74' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Enzo Tchato Mbiayi 79' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Shavy Babicka 84' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Frank Magri 86' — Missed Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Frank Magri 92' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Aron Dønnum 93' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Montpellier attacking right Toulouse attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.62 Open Play Left Foot Goal Joshua King
7' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.28 Open Play Left Foot Goal Djibril Sidibe
19' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Vincent Sierro
21' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vincent Sierro
26' Toulouse Joshua King 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal Zakaria Aboukhlal
32' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
33' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
37' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Wahbi Khazri
40' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rabby Nzingoula
41' Toulouse Warren Kamanzi 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
45' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Arnaud Nordin
46' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Téji Savanier
46' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
50' Toulouse Joshua King 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Warren Kamanzi
58' Toulouse Charlie Cresswell 0.16 From Corner — Saved Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
58' Toulouse Joshua King 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
60' Toulouse Joshua King 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
68' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Birama Touré
74' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.01 From Corner — Missed Shot Vincent Sierro
79' Montpellier Enzo Tchato Mbiayi 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jordan Ferri
84' Toulouse Shavy Babicka 0.11 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Denis Genreau
86' Toulouse Frank Magri 0.48 Open Play — Missed Shot —
92' Toulouse Frank Magri 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Shavy Babicka
93' Toulouse Aron Dønnum 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Djibril Sidibe

Players

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Akor Adams FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Jordan Ferri MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.10
Issiaga Sylla DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Falaye Sacko DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Yael Mouanga DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Modibo Sagnan DC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Wahbi Khazri ML 67 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.01 0.07
Arnaud Nordin MR 67 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.05 0.10
Rabby Nzingoula MC 66 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.12
Téji Savanier DMC 57 0 0 3 1 0.10 0.04 0.11
Mousa Al Tamari Sub 24 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.03
Othmane Maamma Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Birama Touré Sub 23 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.03
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi Sub 13 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Gabriel Barès Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Zakaria Aboukhlal FWR 90 2 1 5 1 1.11 0.31 1.40
Charlie Cresswell DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.16 0.00 0.60
Warren Kamanzi DMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.01 0.72
Aron Dønnum DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.16
Djibril Sidibe DC 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.30 0.89
Vincent Sierro MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.20 0.19
Mark McKenzie DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.59
Guillaume Restes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC 84 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.88
Yann Gboho FWL 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Joshua King FW 70 1 1 4 1 0.44 0.62 1.32
Frank Magri Sub 20 0 0 2 0 0.93 0.00 0.93
Denis Genreau Sub 6 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.00
Miha Zajc Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Shavy Babicka Sub 1 0 0 1 1 0.11 0.45 0.47
Niklas Schmidt Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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