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Monza v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 November 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

Monza
0–1
1.23 – 2.91 xG
AC Milan
Shots
12 – 18
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.47
Goals − xG
-1.23 – -2.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.82.73.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tijjani Reijnders 42' — goal
Monza 1.23 xGAC Milan 3.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Samuel Chukwueze 2' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 12' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Direct Freekick)Georgios Kyriakopoulos 12' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Daniel Maldini 15' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Noah Okafor 19' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Noah Okafor 21' — Missed Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dany Mota 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Álvaro Morata 26' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Pedro Pereira 27' — Saved Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Youssouf Fofana 36' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 42' — Goal (0.85 xG, Open Play)Álvaro Morata 42' — Blocked Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 45' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 48' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Dany Mota 54' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 58' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Álvaro Morata 59' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Samuel Chukwueze 60' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Youssouf Fofana 61' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 63' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 66' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Warren Bondo 71' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Samuele Vignato 79' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mirko Maric 80' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Álvaro Morata 83' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Set Piece)Rafael Leão 84' — Saved Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Strahinja Pavlovic 86' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Rafael Leão 89' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 91' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Monza attacking right AC Milan attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Filippo Terracciano
12' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.15 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
12' Monza Georgios Kyriakopoulos 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot —
15' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pedro Pereira
19' AC Milan Noah Okafor 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Álvaro Morata
21' AC Milan Noah Okafor 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Theo Hernández
24' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alessandro Bianco
25' Monza Dany Mota 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Daniel Maldini
26' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.07 Open Play — Missed Shot Samuel Chukwueze
27' Monza Pedro Pereira 0.40 Open Play — Saved Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
36' AC Milan Youssouf Fofana 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
42' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.85 Open Play — Goal —
42' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.33 Open Play — Blocked Shot Christian Pulisic
45' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mike Maignan
48' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot —
54' Monza Dany Mota 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
58' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
59' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Tijjani Reijnders
60' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Christian Pulisic
61' AC Milan Youssouf Fofana 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
63' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tijjani Reijnders
66' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rafael Leão
71' Monza Warren Bondo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Armando Izzo
79' Monza Samuele Vignato 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gianluca Caprari
80' Monza Mirko Maric 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Caprari
83' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.29 Set Piece — Missed Shot Theo Hernández
84' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mike Maignan
86' AC Milan Strahinja Pavlovic 0.05 Set Piece — Saved Shot Christian Pulisic
89' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yunus Musah
91' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pablo Marí

Players

AC Milan

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tijjani Reijnders DMC 90 1 0 3 2 0.90 0.24 1.68
Álvaro Morata FW 90 0 0 4 1 0.81 0.26 1.07
Theo Hernández DL 90 0 0 1 2 0.14 0.66 0.73
Strahinja Pavlovic DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.69
Youssouf Fofana DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.03 0.00 1.16
Christian Pulisic AMC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.47 0.77
Filippo Terracciano DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.15
Mike Maignan GK 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.37 0.53
Malick Thiaw DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.71
Samuel Chukwueze AMR 82 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.07 0.51
Noah Okafor AML 64 0 0 2 0 0.63 0.00 0.75
Rafael Leão Sub 26 0 0 3 1 0.53 0.14 0.67
Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yunus Musah Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Davide Calabria Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daniel Maldini AMC 90 0 0 5 1 0.60 0.02 0.79
Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.40 0.42
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.76
Pablo Marí DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.79
Armando Izzo DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.39
Alessandro Bianco MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.05
Warren Bondo MC 88 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.79
Milan Djuric FW 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Carboni DC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Pedro Pereira DMR 66 0 0 1 1 0.40 0.36 0.77
Dany Mota AMC 66 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.39
Samuele Vignato Sub 24 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.06
Danilo D'Ambrosio Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Mirko Maric Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Gianluca Caprari Sub 11 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 0.15
Mattia Valoti Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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