Monza v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Monza

13:00 UTC

Cagliari

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 941h before kick-off

Monza win

39.5%

model 38.1%

Draw

29.4%

model 27.4%

Cagliari win

31.0%

model 34.6%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
1-0 10.9%
0-1 10.3%
0-0 8.7%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.1%	Under 2.5	55.9%
BTTS yes	49.7%	BTTS no	50.3%
Monza 1+	71.5%	Monza 2+	35.8%
Cagliari 1+	69.4%	Cagliari 2+	33.2%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 66%

68.6% fair odds 1.46

moderate signal · 1589 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cagliari (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1578 Elo against 1501.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monza have an estimated 39.5% win probability, against 31.0% for Cagliari and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Monza and 1.18 for Cagliari.

Why Monza

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1578 Elo against 1501.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.26 to 1.18. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Cagliari can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Away from home Cagliari average 1.59 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Monza were missing 0.98 expected goal involvements a match against 0.57.

Key players

Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.42), Dany Mota (0.29), Ricardo Mangas (0.25). Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Daniel Maldini (0.27), Paul Mendy (0.25).

Availability

2 of Monza's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monza: 41% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces. Cagliari: 45% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.92 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Monza are the model's most likely outcome at 39.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Monza are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLWLLLLD last 10 scored 7 from 11.3 xG conceded 22 from 16.1 xG

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLWDLWWWLW last 10 scored 10 from 15.1 xG conceded 10 from 16.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	382735	1.26–1.18	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	372637	1.30–1.31	1-1 13%	48%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win	38.1%	37.1%	39.4%	0.94×	2.70
Cagliari to win	34.6%	29.1%	34.0%	0.86×	3.43
Draw	27.4%	27.6%	26.8%	1.03×	3.62

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & not both score	21.9%	22.6%	22.6%	1.00×	4.43
Cagliari & not both score	19.7%	17.8%	20.8%	0.85×	5.63
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Monza & both teams score	16.2%	17.7%	16.9%	1.05×	5.64
Cagliari & both teams score	14.8%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.21
Draw & not both score	8.7%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.64

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & under 3.5	28.9%	25.5%	29.4%	0.87×	3.92
Monza & over 1.5	27.1%	25.5%	29.0%	0.88×	3.92
Cagliari & under 3.5	26.5%	25.5%	26.6%	0.96×	3.92
Cagliari & over 1.5	24.3%	21.5%	24.6%	0.87×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	21.7%	21.5%	19.9%	1.08×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	21.7%	21.5%	19.9%	1.08×	4.65
Monza & over 2.5	20.3%	21.5%	22.5%	0.96×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Cagliari & over 2.5	18.1%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.69
Monza & under 2.5	17.8%	17.6%	17.0%	1.03×	5.69
Cagliari & under 2.5	16.4%	17.6%	16.0%	1.10×	5.70
Monza & under 1.5	10.9%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.87
Cagliari & under 1.5	10.3%	12.7%	9.5%	1.34×	7.87
Monza & over 3.5	9.2%	7.5%	10.1%	0.74×	13.40
Draw & under 1.5	8.7%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.40
Cagliari & over 3.5	8.1%	7.5%	7.4%	1.00×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1UP)	53.4%	52.5%	54.7%	0.96×	1.91
Cagliari (1UP)	50.3%	52.3%	51.1%	1.02×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2UP)	38.1%	40.5%	41.0%	0.99×	2.47
Cagliari (2UP)	34.6%	30.7%	36.5%	0.84×	3.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.1%	39.4%	35.9%	1.10×	2.54
Cagliari to win 2nd half	33.6%	33.8%	29.5%	1.14×	2.96
Monza to win 2nd half	26.3%	27.4%	34.7%	0.79×	3.65

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (+2.5)	94.3%	92.4%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Cagliari (+1.5)	83.3%	82.3%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Monza (+0.5)	65.4%	68.9%	66.0%	1.04×	1.45
Cagliari (+0.5)	61.9%	64.0%	60.6%	1.06×	1.56
Monza (-0.5)	38.1%	36.0%	39.4%	0.91×	2.78
Cagliari (-0.5)	34.6%	31.1%	34.0%	0.92×	3.21
Monza (-1.5)	16.7%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.66
Monza (-2.5)	5.7%	7.6%	7.6%	1.01×	13.08

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	71.6%	76.9%	71.1%	1.08×	1.30
Cagliari clean sheet	28.4%	23.1%	28.9%	0.80×	4.34

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	51.1%	54.7%	58.8%	0.93×	1.83
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	48.9%	45.3%	41.2%	1.10×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	91.1%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	84.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	73.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	60.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	58.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	41.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	39.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	26.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	15.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	8.9%	10.0%	—	—	9.98

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	88.3%	89.0%	88.4%	1.01×	1.12
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	69.4%	67.3%	69.3%	0.97×	1.49
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	66.8%	67.2%	65.4%	1.03×	1.49
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	33.2%	32.8%	34.6%	0.95×	3.05
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	30.6%	32.7%	30.7%	1.07×	3.06
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	11.7%	11.0%	11.6%	0.95×	9.07
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.7%	2.9%	0.92×	37.28

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	91.6%	93.2%	90.2%	1.03×	1.07
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	63.6%	59.0%	1.08×	1.57
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	38.0%	36.4%	41.0%	0.89×	2.74
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	8.4%	6.8%	9.8%	0.69×	14.73

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (away no bet)	58.2%	59.1%	59.5%	0.99×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	41.8%	40.9%	40.5%	1.01×	2.44

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	54.7%	52.5%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Cagliari odd goals	45.3%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.2%	86.4%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.8%	13.6%	12.8%	1.06×	7.38

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.1%	55.8%	59.6%	0.94×	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.9%	44.2%	40.4%	1.09×	2.26

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.7%	47.8%	52.8%	0.91×	2.09
Monza to score 2+ in a row	28.6%	25.2%	31.1%	0.81×	3.97
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	25.9%	25.1%	27.7%	0.91×	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.7%	17.8%	17.3%	1.03×	5.62
Monza to score 3+ in a row	8.6%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.58
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	7.3%	7.7%	0.95×	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza corners (+3.5)	94.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Monza corners (+2.5)	90.7%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Monza corners (+1.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	64.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Monza corners (-1.5)	57.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	53.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Monza corners (-2.5)	46.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	42.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Monza corners (-3.5)	35.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	9.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	5.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	37.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.0%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.63
1-0	10.9%	11.6%	10.5%	1.10×	8.64
0-1	10.3%	11.6%	9.5%	1.22×	8.64
0-0	8.7%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.74
2-1	8.1%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
1-2	7.7%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
2-0	6.9%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
0-2	6.1%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
2-2	4.8%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.39
1-3	3.0%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.43
3-0	2.9%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.44
3-1	3.4%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.42
Any other score	1.7%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.47
0-3	2.4%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.45
2-3	1.9%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.46
3-2	2.0%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.46
4-1	1.1%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.48
4-2	0.6%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51
0-4	0.7%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.49
1-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.49
2-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
3-3	0.8%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-0	0.9%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	60.8%	64.9%	50.1%	1.29×	1.54
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	39.2%	35.1%	49.9%	0.70×	2.85

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or Cagliari (12)	72.6%	72.4%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Monza or draw (1X)	65.4%	70.9%	66.0%	1.07×	1.41
Cagliari or draw (X2)	61.9%	62.9%	60.6%	1.04×	1.59

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	77.5%	78.7%	72.6%	1.08×	1.27
Cagliari or draw at HT	65.2%	66.1%	72.5%	0.91×	1.51
Monza or Cagliari at HT	57.3%	58.2%	54.8%	1.06×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw (1UP)	65.4%	74.9%	71.3%	1.05×	1.34
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	61.9%	67.6%	66.3%	1.02×	1.48

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	73.7%	72.6%	65.3%	1.11×	1.38
Monza or draw in 2nd half	66.4%	66.2%	70.5%	0.94×	1.51
Monza or Cagliari in 2nd half	59.9%	60.6%	64.1%	0.95×	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.7%	66.0%	64.4%	1.03×	1.52
Neither half drawn	34.3%	34.0%	35.6%	0.95×	2.94

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (DNB)	52.4%	52.5%	53.7%	0.98×	1.90
Cagliari (DNB)	47.6%	47.5%	46.3%	1.03×	2.11

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score first	47.0%	46.1%	47.7%	0.97×	2.17
Cagliari to score first	44.3%	41.5%	44.2%	0.94×	2.41
No goal scored	8.7%	6.3%	8.2%	0.77×	15.90

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.3%	52.8%	51.4%	1.03×	1.89
Both teams to score	49.7%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.9%	42.3%	41.0%	1.03×	2.36
Both score & over 2.5	36.7%	37.4%	36.9%	1.02×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	13.0%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.52
Not both score & over 2.5	7.4%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.48

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.6%	86.9%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.4%	13.1%	1.10×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.5%	73.9%	74.7%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.5%	26.1%	25.3%	1.04×	3.83

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.1%	59.5%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	18.3%	18.2%	20.5%	0.89×	5.49
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	11.6%	11.7%	0.99×	8.62
Both score in both halves	4.2%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.4%	83.2%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.6%	16.8%	16.5%	1.02×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.5%	54.6%	48.2%	1.13×	1.83
A goal in each half	49.5%	45.4%	51.8%	0.88×	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
0-1 goals	30.0%	27.8%	27.9%	0.99×	3.60
4-6 goals	21.7%	22.8%	23.5%	0.97×	4.39
7+ goals	1.3%	1.9%	0.9%	2.18×	51.84

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 1	36.2%	34.6%	34.8%	0.99×	2.89
Cagliari to score exactly 0	30.6%	33.2%	30.7%	1.08×	3.01
Cagliari to score exactly 2	21.5%	24.0%	23.1%	1.04×	4.18
Cagliari to score 3+	11.7%	13.4%	11.6%	1.15×	7.48

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	35.8%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
Monza to score exactly 0	28.4%	27.1%	28.9%	0.94×	3.69
Monza to score exactly 2	22.5%	23.0%	24.6%	0.93×	4.36
Monza to score 3+	13.3%	13.5%	14.4%	0.94×	7.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.7%	41.8%	45.2%	0.92×	2.39
Monza leading at HT	34.8%	33.9%	27.5%	1.23×	2.95
Cagliari leading at HT	22.5%	21.3%	27.4%	0.78×	4.70

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza -1: 2	61.9%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
Monza -1: X	21.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Monza -1: 1	16.7%	18.9%	—	—	5.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:1)	61.9%	59.7%	60.6%	0.99×	1.68
Draw (0:1)	21.4%	24.4%	22.5%	1.09×	4.10
Monza (0:1)	16.7%	18.3%	17.0%	1.07×	5.48

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:2)	83.3%	83.6%	83.0%	1.01×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.0%	11.7%	9.6%	1.22×	8.56
Monza (0:2)	5.7%	7.1%	7.6%	0.94×	14.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:3)	94.3%	92.7%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.1%	2.3%	4.5%	0.52×	42.69
Monza (0:3)	1.6%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.55×	80.72
Monza (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.17

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1:0)	65.4%	70.0%	66.0%	1.06×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	20.1%	22.8%	19.9%	1.15×	4.38
Cagliari (1:0)	14.4%	11.8%	14.1%	0.84×	8.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2:0)	85.6%	89.2%	85.9%	1.04×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	9.8%	6.7%	8.5%	0.79×	15.02
Cagliari (2:0)	4.7%	2.7%	5.8%	0.47×	36.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.8%	42.7%	46.6%	0.92×	2.34
Halves equal	27.3%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	32.9%	25.9%	26.8%	0.97×	3.87

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	69.4%	67.1%	69.3%	0.97×	1.49
Monza clean sheet	30.6%	32.9%	30.7%	1.07×	3.04

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	62.0%	63.4%	59.0%	1.07×	1.58
Monza to concede in 1st half	38.0%	36.6%	41.0%	0.89×	2.73

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza over 2.5 corners	85.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Monza over 3.5 corners	73.5%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Monza under 6.5 corners	65.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monza over 4.5 corners	60.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Monza under 5.5 corners	53.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Monza over 5.5 corners	46.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Monza under 4.5 corners	39.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Monza over 6.5 corners	35.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monza under 3.5 corners	26.5%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Monza under 2.5 corners	14.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	96.1%	97.7%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Monza under 2.5 goals	86.7%	87.8%	85.6%	1.03×	1.14
Monza over 0.5 goals	71.6%	72.7%	71.1%	1.02×	1.38
Monza under 1.5 goals	64.2%	62.7%	61.1%	1.03×	1.59
Monza over 1.5 goals	35.8%	37.3%	38.9%	0.96×	2.68
Monza under 0.5 goals	28.4%	27.3%	28.9%	0.94×	3.66
Monza over 2.5 goals	13.3%	12.2%	14.4%	0.85×	8.18
Monza over 3.5 goals	3.9%	2.3%	4.5%	0.50×	43.70

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	85.4%	87.7%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	54.7%	58.8%	0.93×	1.83
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	45.3%	41.2%	1.10×	2.21
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	14.6%	12.3%	9.8%	1.25×	8.13

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (home no bet)	55.8%	54.2%	55.9%	0.97×	1.85
Draw (home no bet)	44.2%	45.8%	44.1%	1.04×	2.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	54.0%	50.3%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Monza odd goals	46.0%	49.7%	43.4%	1.14×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.7%	30.5%	34.3%	0.89×	3.28
HT 1-0	21.3%	22.6%	18.3%	1.24×	4.42
HT 0-1	15.2%	18.9%	18.4%	1.02×	5.31
HT 1-1	10.2%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.96
HT 2-0	7.1%	7.7%	5.6%	1.38×	13.01
Any other HT score	4.3%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.75
HT 0-2	3.6%	2.5%	5.4%	0.46×	39.79
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.81
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.86
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	25.6%	27.0%	21.3%	1.27×	3.70
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	17.5%	16.8%	19.2%	0.87×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	16.7%	1.01×	5.96
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	14.4%	12.0%	13.0%	0.92×	8.34
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	11.2%	12.0%	15.8%	0.76×	8.37
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	6.5%	6.6%	4.4%	1.49×	15.24
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.4%	5.9%	0.57×	29.36
Monza at HT / Cagliari at FT	2.7%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.40
Cagliari at HT / Monza at FT	1.2%	3.4%	2.5%	1.34×	29.46

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score last	47.0%	49.0%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04
Cagliari to score last	44.3%	40.4%	43.6%	0.93×	2.47
No goal scored	8.7%	6.3%	8.2%	0.77×	15.90

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.3%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	53.4%	51.0%	54.7%	0.93×	1.96
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	50.3%	50.9%	51.1%	0.99×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.3%	42.1%	42.6%	0.99×	2.38
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	22.0%	19.8%	22.9%	0.87×	5.06
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	17.7%	20.1%	0.88×	5.65
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	11.3%	14.5%	0.78×	8.82
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	7.2%	7.0%	8.3%	0.85×	14.20
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	6.0%	7.0%	6.3%	1.11×	14.25

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza most corners	67.8%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Cagliari most corners	22.6%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.2%	81.5%	80.7%	1.01×	1.23
2-6 goals	68.8%	68.4%	71.3%	0.96×	1.46
1-3 goals	68.3%	68.3%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
2-5 goals	66.2%	68.3%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
2-4 goals	59.9%	58.8%	61.0%	0.96×	1.70
1-2 goals	47.2%	48.0%	44.7%	1.07×	2.08
2-3 goals	47.1%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
3-6 goals	42.8%	43.6%	46.5%	0.94×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.3%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.0%	34.1%	36.1%	0.95×	2.93
4-6 goals	21.7%	24.7%	23.5%	1.05×	4.05
4-5 goals	19.2%	18.1%	21.6%	0.84×	5.51
5-6 goals	8.9%	8.9%	10.5%	0.84×	11.30
7+ goals	1.3%	2.0%	0.9%	2.27×	49.80

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza never behind	41.0%	50.6%	48.9%	1.04×	1.98
Cagliari never behind	37.9%	45.4%	45.3%	1.00×	2.20

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	44.7%	43.2%	1.04×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.8%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.2%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	95.6%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.3%	92.9%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.9%	88.8%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	77.0%	78.2%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	70.0%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.9%	57.7%	52.8%	1.09×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	44.1%	42.3%	47.2%	0.90×	2.36
Under 1.5 goals	30.0%	27.6%	27.9%	0.99×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	23.0%	21.8%	24.2%	0.90×	4.60
Over 4.5 goals	10.1%	11.2%	11.2%	1.00×	8.93
Under 0.5 goals	8.7%	7.1%	8.2%	0.86×	14.15
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.4%	2.8%	1.57×	22.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.9%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.4%	88.1%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.9%	72.0%	68.5%	1.05×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.6%	55.5%	62.9%	0.88×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.4%	44.5%	37.1%	1.20×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.1%	28.0%	31.5%	0.89×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.6%	11.9%	12.9%	0.92×	8.43
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.1%	2.8%	3.0%	0.92×	35.82
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.8%	0.9%	3.06×	36.26

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	88.1%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.6%	65.7%	1.04×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.1%	68.6%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.9%	31.4%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.4%	34.3%	0.91×	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	11.9%	8.1%	1.47×	8.42

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.9%	85.8%	82.3%	1.04×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.5%	76.3%	77.9%	0.98×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.0%	61.0%	56.8%	1.07×	1.64
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.0%	39.0%	43.2%	0.90×	2.56
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.5%	23.7%	22.1%	1.07×	4.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.1%	14.2%	17.7%	0.81×	7.02

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to score in both halves	80.8%	81.4%	78.8%	1.03×	1.23
Monza not to score in both halves	78.3%	78.1%	76.3%	1.02×	1.28
Monza to score in both halves	21.7%	21.9%	23.7%	0.92×	4.57
Cagliari to score in both halves	19.2%	18.6%	21.2%	0.87×	5.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.7%	49.6%	48.6%	1.02×	2.02
Only Monza scores	21.9%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.38
Only Cagliari scores	19.7%	16.5%	20.8%	0.79×	6.07
Neither team scores	8.7%	6.7%	8.2%	0.81×	14.98

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.9%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	21.3%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	12.9%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.09
Exactly 0 goals	8.7%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.12
Exactly 5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.4%	2.8%	1.57×	22.91

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	37.0%	38.4%	43.2%	0.89×	2.61
1 goal in 2nd half	35.5%	38.3%	34.8%	1.10×	2.61
No goals in 2nd half	27.5%	28.4%	22.1%	1.29×	3.52

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win both halves	92.4%	93.4%	91.4%	1.02×	1.07
Monza not to win both halves	90.8%	93.3%	90.3%	1.03×	1.07
Monza to win both halves	9.2%	6.7%	9.7%	0.69×	14.98
Cagliari to win both halves	7.6%	6.6%	8.6%	0.77×	15.08

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win either half	52.0%	53.9%	52.5%	1.03×	1.85
Cagliari to win neither half	51.4%	53.9%	51.6%	1.04×	1.86
Cagliari to win either half	48.6%	46.1%	48.4%	0.95×	2.17
Monza to win neither half	48.0%	46.1%	47.5%	0.97×	2.17

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win to nil	80.3%	83.2%	79.2%	1.05×	1.20
Monza not to win to nil	78.1%	77.2%	77.4%	1.00×	1.30
Monza to win to nil	21.9%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.38
Cagliari to win to nil	19.7%	16.8%	20.8%	0.81×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.4%	28.0%	26.8%	1.05×	3.57
Monza by 1	21.4%	23.7%	22.5%	1.06×	4.21
Cagliari by 1	20.1%	23.7%	19.9%	1.19×	4.22
Monza by 2	11.0%	11.8%	9.6%	1.23×	8.45
Cagliari by 2	9.8%	7.1%	8.5%	0.84×	14.05
Monza by 3+	5.7%	7.1%	7.6%	0.93×	14.14
Cagliari by 3+	4.7%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.10