Monza v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 November 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Monza

14:00 UTC

Fiorentina

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 675h before kick-off

Monza win

48.1%

model 45.4%

Draw

22.6%

model 24.0%

Fiorentina win

29.2%

model 30.6%

482329

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-1 9.2%
1-0 8.4%
1-2 7.4%
2-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.3%	Under 2.5	42.7%
BTTS yes	59.5%	BTTS no	40.5%
Monza 1+	81.0%	Monza 2+	49.4%
Fiorentina 1+	73.4%	Fiorentina 2+	38.2%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.33. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Fiorentina to concede in 1st half

Away clean sheet 1HT · usually 42%

55.7% fair odds 1.80

moderate signal · 850 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4336 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1563 Elo against 1504.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.32.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monza have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.2% for Fiorentina and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.66 for Monza and 1.32 for Fiorentina.

Why Monza

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1563 Elo against 1504. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.32.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Fiorentina can win

Away from home Fiorentina average 0.97 xG a match.

Key players

Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.55), Dany Mota (0.30), Ricardo Mangas (0.26). Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.51), Franco Mastantuono (0.47), Alieu Njie (0.44).

Availability

73% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Monza: Lorenzo Lucchesi (suspended). 2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monza: 45% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Monza are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Monza are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLDLWLWL last 10 scored 16 from 15.1 xG conceded 23 from 17.8 xG

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	452431	1.66–1.33	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402436	1.53–1.45	1-1 11%	57%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win	45.8%	47.3%	40.1%	1.18×	2.11
Fiorentina to win	28.4%	27.9%	33.6%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & not both score	25.5%	25.1%	22.6%	1.11×	3.98
Monza & both teams score	20.3%	21.8%	17.7%	1.23×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.56
Fiorentina & not both score	15.2%	18.0%	20.6%	0.87×	5.57
Fiorentina & both teams score	13.2%	13.3%	13.1%	1.01×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.5%	8.3%	7.9%	1.06×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & over 1.5	34.7%	30.8%	30.1%	1.02×	3.25
Monza & under 3.5	32.5%	30.7%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
Monza & over 2.5	26.4%	26.1%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
Fiorentina & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	26.3%	0.82×	4.63
Fiorentina & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	24.6%	0.88×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.8%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.8%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Monza & under 2.5	19.3%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	18.0%	1.00×	5.56
Monza & over 3.5	13.2%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Fiorentina & under 2.5	12.9%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Monza & under 1.5	11.1%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Fiorentina & under 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Fiorentina & over 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	7.4%	1.07×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1UP)	60.5%	62.7%	55.4%	1.13×	1.60
Fiorentina (1UP)	45.3%	43.8%	50.3%	0.87×	2.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2UP)	45.8%	49.9%	42.1%	1.19×	2.01
Fiorentina (2UP)	28.4%	25.3%	36.1%	0.70×	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.8%	36.3%	34.9%	1.04×	2.76
Monza to win 2nd half	36.2%	36.2%	35.0%	1.03×	2.76
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	25.0%	24.3%	30.2%	0.80×	4.12

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	86.9%	84.8%	1.02×	1.15
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.7%	54.3%	49.8%	1.09×	1.84
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.3%	45.7%	50.2%	0.91×	2.19
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	13.1%	15.2%	0.87×	7.61

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.6%	81.1%	1.02×	1.21
Monza over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	55.2%	53.9%	1.03×	1.81
Monza under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	44.8%	46.1%	0.97×	2.23
Monza over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.4%	18.9%	0.92×	5.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (+2.5)	91.1%	92.1%	92.4%	1.00×	1.09
Fiorentina (+1.5)	77.3%	78.5%	82.4%	0.95×	1.27
Monza (+0.5)	71.6%	73.6%	66.4%	1.11×	1.36
Fiorentina (+0.5)	54.2%	52.4%	59.9%	0.88×	1.91
Monza (-0.5)	45.8%	47.6%	40.1%	1.19×	2.10
Fiorentina (-0.5)	28.4%	26.4%	33.6%	0.79×	3.79
Monza (-1.5)	22.7%	21.5%	17.6%	1.23×	4.65
Monza (-2.5)	8.9%	7.9%	7.6%	1.03×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	77.3%	78.8%	71.7%	1.10×	1.27
Fiorentina clean sheet	22.7%	21.2%	28.3%	0.75×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	51.0%	50.5%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	49.0%	49.5%	57.9%	0.85×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	53.7%	54.9%	53.9%	1.02×	1.82
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	46.3%	45.1%	46.1%	0.98×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	88.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	80.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	68.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	64.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	35.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	31.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	11.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	97.3%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	89.8%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	69.5%	68.0%	64.9%	1.05×	1.47
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	67.1%	68.0%	69.7%	0.98×	1.47
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	32.9%	32.0%	30.3%	1.05×	3.13
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	30.5%	32.0%	35.1%	0.91×	3.13
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	10.2%	12.2%	11.9%	1.02×	8.21
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	2.7%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	90.2%	93.7%	90.0%	1.04×	1.07
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	59.1%	62.1%	59.0%	1.05×	1.61
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	40.9%	37.9%	41.0%	0.92×	2.64
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	9.8%	6.3%	10.0%	0.63×	15.92

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores equally in both	43.9%	43.5%	43.3%	1.01×	2.30
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	30.0%	33.1%	33.1%	1.00×	3.02
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	26.1%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (away no bet)	63.9%	62.0%	60.3%	1.03×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.1%	38.0%	39.7%	0.96×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	55.4%	56.9%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Fiorentina odd goals	44.6%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.2%	87.8%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.8%	12.2%	12.7%	0.96×	8.19

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.6%	57.4%	60.5%	0.95×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.4%	42.6%	39.5%	1.08×	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.3%	50.9%	53.6%	0.95×	1.96
Monza to score 2+ in a row	36.0%	36.5%	32.0%	1.14×	2.74
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	22.7%	19.6%	27.8%	0.70×	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.2%	17.8%	0.91×	6.16
Monza to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.0%	10.0%	1.20×	8.31
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	5.8%	5.5%	7.9%	0.70×	18.20

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza corners (+3.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Monza corners (+2.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Monza corners (+1.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	74.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	65.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	54.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Monza corners (-1.5)	45.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Monza corners (-2.5)	34.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Monza corners (-3.5)	25.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	19.9%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.9%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	80.1%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	72.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	36.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	19.9%	19.4%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	14.1%	16.9%	—	—	5.90

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.72
1-0	11.1%	11.5%	10.2%	1.13×	8.72
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.4%	0.78×	13.51
0-0	7.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
0-1	8.3%	7.4%	9.1%	0.82×	13.51
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.51
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	58.29
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.32
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.31
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2nd half DNB)	59.2%	59.9%	53.7%	1.12×	1.67
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	40.8%	40.1%	46.3%	0.87×	2.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	60.0%	56.6%	51.3%	1.10×	1.77
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	40.0%	43.4%	48.7%	0.89×	2.31

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or Fiorentina (12)	74.1%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Monza or draw (1X)	71.6%	72.1%	66.4%	1.09×	1.39
Fiorentina or draw (X2)	54.2%	52.7%	59.9%	0.88×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	76.3%	79.4%	73.0%	1.09×	1.26
Fiorentina or draw at HT	64.6%	61.0%	71.6%	0.85×	1.64
Monza or Fiorentina at HT	59.1%	57.7%	55.3%	1.04×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw (1UP)	71.6%	79.5%	71.7%	1.11×	1.26
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	54.2%	58.9%	65.4%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw in 2nd half	75.0%	75.7%	69.8%	1.09×	1.32
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	63.8%	63.8%	65.0%	0.98×	1.57
Monza or Fiorentina in 2nd half	61.2%	63.7%	65.1%	0.98×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.8%	61.4%	63.6%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.2%	38.6%	36.4%	1.06×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (DNB)	61.7%	62.7%	54.5%	1.15×	1.60
Fiorentina (DNB)	38.3%	37.3%	45.5%	0.82×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score first	52.9%	53.4%	48.7%	1.10×	1.87
Fiorentina to score first	39.6%	32.9%	43.5%	0.76×	3.04
No goal scored	7.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.8%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.2%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.7%	38.5%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	39.5%	38.5%	37.5%	1.03×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.7%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.3%	14.4%	13.6%	1.06×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.2%	74.8%	74.7%	1.00×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.8%	25.2%	25.3%	1.00×	3.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.3%	65.6%	62.6%	1.05×	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	18.8%	15.1%	20.6%	0.74×	6.61
Both score 1st half only	15.9%	15.0%	12.2%	1.23×	6.68
Both score in both halves	5.0%	5.0%	4.9%	1.02×	20.09

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.2%	81.2%	83.0%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.8%	18.8%	17.0%	1.11×	5.33

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.7%	53.0%	52.7%	1.01×	1.89
A half without a goal	47.3%	47.0%	47.3%	0.99×	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.2%	48.5%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.9%	26.6%	26.9%	0.99×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.6%	22.9%	23.9%	0.96×	4.36
7+ goals	1.7%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	32.9%	33.8%	30.3%	1.11×	2.96
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	20.3%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.49
Fiorentina to score 3+	10.2%	12.9%	11.9%	1.08×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	33.7%	32.6%	31.9%	1.02×	3.07
Monza to score exactly 2	25.0%	23.3%	24.9%	0.94×	4.29
Monza to score exactly 0	22.7%	23.3%	28.3%	0.82×	4.29
Monza to score 3+	18.7%	18.8%	15.2%	1.24×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.9%	42.3%	44.7%	0.95×	2.37
Monza leading at HT	35.4%	39.0%	28.4%	1.37×	2.56
Fiorentina leading at HT	23.7%	20.6%	27.0%	0.76×	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza -1: 2	54.2%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Monza -1: X	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Monza -1: 1	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:1)	54.2%	51.4%	59.9%	0.86×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	23.1%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13
Monza (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	17.6%	1.38×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:2)	77.3%	79.4%	82.4%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.8%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.10
Monza (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	7.6%	1.00×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:3)	91.1%	92.7%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.0%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.25
Monza (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:4)	97.2%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.94
Monza (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.09

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1:0)	71.6%	72.4%	66.4%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.3%	17.1%	19.2%	0.89×	5.85
Fiorentina (1:0)	11.1%	12.7%	14.5%	0.88×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2:0)	88.9%	88.5%	85.5%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.7%	6.4%	8.7%	0.73×	15.67
Fiorentina (2:0)	3.4%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.6%	39.6%	46.5%	0.85×	2.53
1st half highest scoring	34.1%	29.9%	26.9%	1.11×	3.35
Halves equal	26.4%	26.2%	26.8%	0.98×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	67.1%	66.7%	69.7%	0.96×	1.50
Monza clean sheet	32.9%	33.3%	30.3%	1.10×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	59.1%	62.1%	59.0%	1.05×	1.61
Monza to concede in 1st half	40.9%	37.9%	41.0%	0.92×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 2nd half	55.7%	54.5%	49.8%	1.09×	1.83
Monza to concede in 2nd half	44.3%	45.5%	50.2%	0.91×	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza over 2.5 corners	78.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Monza under 6.5 corners	74.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Monza over 3.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monza under 5.5 corners	63.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monza under 4.5 corners	50.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Monza over 4.5 corners	49.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Monza over 5.5 corners	36.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monza under 3.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monza over 6.5 corners	25.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Monza under 2.5 corners	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	93.6%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Monza under 2.5 goals	81.3%	82.2%	84.8%	0.97×	1.22
Monza over 0.5 goals	77.3%	77.7%	71.7%	1.08×	1.29
Monza under 1.5 goals	56.3%	58.6%	60.1%	0.98×	1.71
Monza over 1.5 goals	43.7%	41.4%	39.9%	1.04×	2.42
Monza under 0.5 goals	22.7%	22.3%	28.3%	0.79×	4.49
Monza over 2.5 goals	18.7%	17.8%	15.2%	1.17×	5.62
Monza over 3.5 goals	6.4%	7.8%	4.7%	1.67×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	84.0%	83.9%	89.4%	0.94×	1.19
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	50.3%	42.1%	1.20×	1.99
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	49.7%	57.9%	0.86×	2.01
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	16.0%	16.1%	10.6%	1.52×	6.21

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza scores equally in both	37.0%	37.8%	41.6%	0.91×	2.65
Monza scores more in 2nd half	33.2%	33.2%	36.4%	0.91×	3.01
Monza scores more in 1st half	29.8%	27.9%	22.1%	1.26×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (home no bet)	52.3%	51.4%	56.0%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.7%	48.6%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	52.6%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Monza odd goals	47.4%	49.3%	43.7%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.0%	28.5%	33.9%	0.84×	3.51
HT 1-0	20.7%	24.3%	18.5%	1.31×	4.12
HT 0-1	15.2%	18.5%	18.0%	1.02×	5.42
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.12
HT 2-0	7.4%	6.9%	5.7%	1.21×	14.46
Any other HT score	5.2%	6.9%	3.3%	2.06×	14.49
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.95
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.4%	2.4%	1.00×	41.96
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	42.02
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	0.7%	3.31×	42.14

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	28.7%	27.3%	22.0%	1.24×	3.66
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	16.5%	16.8%	19.0%	0.88×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.9%	16.8%	16.0%	1.05×	5.96
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	14.8%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.90
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	10.2%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.92
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	4.8%	1.27×	16.50
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.79
Fiorentina at HT / Monza at FT	2.2%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.89
Monza at HT / Fiorentina at FT	1.6%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score last	52.9%	52.1%	48.0%	1.08×	1.92
Fiorentina to score last	39.6%	38.9%	44.2%	0.88×	2.57
No goal scored	7.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.5%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	60.5%	61.2%	55.4%	1.10×	1.63
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	45.3%	44.3%	50.3%	0.88×	2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.5%	39.3%	44.0%	0.89×	2.54
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	28.6%	25.4%	24.3%	1.05×	3.94
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	16.1%	14.9%	20.2%	0.74×	6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.4%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.73
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	10.5%	8.7%	1.20×	9.54
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	4.5%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	60.60

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza most corners	57.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Fiorentina most corners	31.8%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.4%	83.4%	80.6%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.5%	72.3%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.3%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.3%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.3%	48.5%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.5%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.1%	43.6%	45.2%	0.97×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.8%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.6%	24.5%	23.9%	1.02×	4.09
4-5 goals	21.4%	24.5%	21.7%	1.13×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.5%	14.8%	10.8%	1.38×	6.76
7+ goals	1.7%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza never behind	47.2%	56.6%	49.7%	1.14×	1.77
Fiorentina never behind	32.0%	36.2%	44.6%	0.81×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.8%	56.6%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.2%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.3%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.7%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	96.9%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	73.7%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	73.1%	72.5%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.0%	52.5%	51.9%	1.01×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	48.0%	47.5%	48.1%	0.99×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	26.9%	27.5%	26.9%	1.02×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	26.3%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	11.6%	1.07×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	3.1%	1.48×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.8%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.8%	86.7%	86.7%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	66.4%	67.4%	67.7%	1.00×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.1%	61.9%	64.2%	0.97×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.9%	38.1%	35.8%	1.06×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	33.6%	32.6%	32.3%	1.01×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.2%	13.3%	13.3%	0.99×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.2%	7.6%	3.4%	2.23×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.1%	89.0%	91.3%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.0%	71.4%	66.1%	1.08×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.3%	70.3%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.7%	29.7%	1.23×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	33.9%	0.84×	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.9%	11.0%	8.7%	1.26×	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.4%	83.0%	82.2%	1.01×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.2%	77.6%	78.7%	0.99×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.7%	61.2%	56.6%	1.08×	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.3%	38.8%	43.4%	0.89×	2.58
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.8%	22.4%	21.3%	1.05×	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.6%	17.0%	17.8%	0.96×	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	81.9%	84.2%	78.5%	1.07×	1.19
Monza not to score in both halves	72.6%	73.9%	75.7%	0.98×	1.35
Monza to score in both halves	27.4%	26.1%	24.3%	1.08×	3.83
Fiorentina to score in both halves	18.1%	15.8%	21.5%	0.74×	6.32

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.8%	53.8%	49.2%	1.09×	1.86
Only Monza scores	25.5%	26.0%	22.6%	1.15×	3.85
Only Fiorentina scores	15.2%	16.0%	20.6%	0.78×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.5%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.1%	24.9%	25.1%	0.99×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.4%	17.5%	19.1%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.1%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.5%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.3%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.9%	4.5%	3.1%	1.44×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	36.4%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	33.9%	0.84×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.2%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.9%	10.9%	8.7%	1.25×	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	39.3%	40.6%	43.4%	0.94×	2.47
1 goal in 2nd half	34.9%	33.8%	35.5%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	25.8%	29.3%	21.3%	1.38×	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	94.1%	94.2%	91.2%	1.03×	1.06
Monza not to win both halves	87.2%	88.0%	90.0%	0.98×	1.14
Monza to win both halves	12.8%	12.0%	10.0%	1.20×	8.30
Fiorentina to win both halves	5.9%	5.8%	8.8%	0.66×	17.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win either half	58.8%	59.2%	53.4%	1.11×	1.69
Fiorentina to win neither half	57.3%	59.1%	51.6%	1.15×	1.69
Fiorentina to win either half	42.7%	40.9%	48.4%	0.84×	2.45
Monza to win neither half	41.2%	40.8%	46.6%	0.88×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	84.8%	83.1%	79.5%	1.05×	1.20
Monza not to win to nil	74.5%	75.4%	77.4%	0.97×	1.33
Monza to win to nil	25.5%	24.6%	22.6%	1.09×	4.06
Fiorentina to win to nil	15.2%	16.9%	20.6%	0.82×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Monza by 1	23.1%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Fiorentina by 1	17.3%	17.0%	19.2%	0.89×	5.87
Monza by 2	13.8%	11.8%	10.0%	1.17×	8.51
Monza by 3+	8.9%	7.2%	7.6%	0.94×	13.90
Fiorentina by 2	7.7%	7.2%	8.7%	0.82×	13.90
Fiorentina by 3+	3.4%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.83