Monza v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Monza

19:45 UTC

Napoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 81h before kick-off

Monza win

29.5%

model 32.0%

Draw

27.4%

model 27.5%

Napoli win

43.1%

model 40.4%

292743

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
0-1 11.7%
1-0 10.1%
0-0 9.1%
1-2 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.0%	Under 2.5	57.0%
BTTS yes	48.6%	BTTS no	51.4%
Monza 1+	67.1%	Monza 2+	30.6%
Napoli 1+	72.4%	Napoli 2+	36.8%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

86%

★ Best pick

Monza under 0.5 in 2nd half

2nd half home goals O/U · usually 46%

69.1% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 518 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Monza not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 77%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1661 Elo against 1563.
Away from home Napoli average 1.92 xG a match.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.86).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Monza and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.11 for Monza and 1.29 for Napoli.

Why Monza

Nothing in the data singles out Monza.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. A combined 2.40 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.11 to 1.29. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1661 Elo against 1563. Away from home Napoli average 1.92 xG a match.

Key players

Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.55), Dany Mota (0.30), Ricardo Mangas (0.26). Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35).

Availability

73% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Monza: Lorenzo Lucchesi (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monza: 45% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 55% possession, 18.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Monza are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLDLWLWL last 10 scored 16 from 15.1 xG conceded 23 from 17.8 xG

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWWLLWDWLD last 10 scored 17 from 20.9 xG conceded 10 from 11.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	322840	1.11–1.29	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	212554	0.91–1.63	0-1 13%	46%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	41.4%	42.9%	33.6%	1.28×	2.33
Monza to win	30.0%	27.9%	40.1%	0.70×	3.58
Draw	28.6%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	26.0%	25.2%	20.6%	1.22×	3.98
Monza & not both score	18.4%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Napoli & both teams score	15.5%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.57
Monza & both teams score	11.5%	13.3%	17.7%	0.75×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.7%	13.3%	7.9%	1.68×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & under 3.5	32.8%	30.8%	26.3%	1.17×	3.25
Napoli & over 1.5	28.3%	26.1%	24.6%	1.06×	3.84
Monza & under 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	29.6%	0.73×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	23.9%	21.6%	19.6%	1.10×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	19.6%	1.10×	4.63
Napoli & under 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	15.7%	1.38×	4.63
Napoli & over 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	18.0%	1.20×	4.63
Monza & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	30.1%	0.60×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Monza & under 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Monza & over 2.5	13.9%	12.8%	23.4%	0.55×	7.79
Napoli & under 1.5	13.2%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Monza & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	7.9%	1.63×	7.79
Napoli & over 3.5	8.7%	7.9%	7.4%	1.07×	12.63
Monza & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	10.6%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	55.1%	58.0%	50.3%	1.15×	1.73
Monza (1UP)	44.8%	38.8%	55.4%	0.70×	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	41.4%	47.1%	36.1%	1.30×	2.13
Monza (2UP)	30.0%	25.5%	42.1%	0.61×	3.93

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	46.2%	45.5%	34.9%	1.30×	2.20
Napoli to win 2nd half	33.0%	34.1%	30.2%	1.13×	2.93
Monza to win 2nd half	20.8%	24.1%	35.0%	0.69×	4.16

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.1%	86.9%	84.8%	1.02×	1.15
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.3%	54.2%	49.8%	1.09×	1.84
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.7%	45.8%	50.2%	0.91×	2.19
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.9%	13.1%	15.2%	0.87×	7.61

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.6%	94.6%	81.1%	1.17×	1.06
Monza under 0.5 in 2nd half	66.3%	70.7%	46.1%	1.53×	1.41
Monza over 0.5 in 2nd half	33.7%	29.3%	53.9%	0.54×	3.41
Monza over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.5%	5.4%	18.9%	0.29×	18.39

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	96.9%	96.3%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Napoli (+1.5)	88.9%	88.5%	82.4%	1.07×	1.13
Napoli (+0.5)	70.0%	73.6%	59.9%	1.23×	1.36
Monza (+0.5)	58.6%	57.0%	66.4%	0.86×	1.75
Napoli (-0.5)	41.4%	43.0%	33.6%	1.28×	2.33
Monza (-0.5)	30.0%	26.4%	40.1%	0.66×	3.79
Monza (-1.5)	11.1%	11.5%	17.6%	0.66×	8.68
Monza (-2.5)	3.1%	3.7%	7.6%	0.48×	27.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	63.4%	67.6%	71.7%	0.94×	1.48
Napoli clean sheet	36.6%	32.4%	28.3%	1.14×	3.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	55.2%	56.9%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Napoli to concede in 1st half	44.8%	43.1%	42.1%	1.02×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	66.3%	65.7%	46.1%	1.42×	1.52
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	33.7%	34.3%	53.9%	0.64×	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	79.1%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Napoli over 2.5 corners	75.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Napoli under 5.5 corners	68.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Napoli over 3.5 corners	59.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Napoli under 4.5 corners	55.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Napoli over 4.5 corners	44.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Napoli under 3.5 corners	40.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Napoli over 5.5 corners	31.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Napoli under 2.5 corners	24.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Napoli over 6.5 corners	20.9%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	96.3%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Napoli under 2.5 goals	87.2%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Napoli over 0.5 goals	70.9%	71.8%	69.7%	1.03×	1.39
Napoli under 1.5 goals	65.0%	68.0%	64.9%	1.05×	1.47
Napoli over 1.5 goals	35.0%	32.0%	35.1%	0.91×	3.12
Napoli under 0.5 goals	29.1%	28.2%	30.3%	0.93×	3.55
Napoli over 2.5 goals	12.8%	12.2%	11.9%	1.02×	8.20
Napoli over 3.5 goals	3.7%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	86.4%	89.4%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	52.6%	55.4%	59.0%	0.94×	1.81
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	47.4%	44.6%	41.0%	1.09×	2.24
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	13.6%	10.6%	10.0%	1.06×	9.39

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores equally in both	41.3%	43.5%	43.3%	1.00×	2.30
Napoli scores more in 1st half	31.0%	33.2%	23.8%	1.40×	3.02
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	27.8%	26.6%	33.1%	0.81×	3.75

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (away no bet)	51.2%	51.7%	60.3%	0.86×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	48.8%	48.3%	39.7%	1.22×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	54.2%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Napoli odd goals	45.8%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.7%	91.8%	87.3%	1.05×	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.3%	8.2%	12.7%	0.65×	12.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	52.3%	50.5%	60.5%	0.84×	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	47.7%	49.5%	39.5%	1.25×	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	45.6%	46.0%	53.6%	0.86×	2.17
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	28.8%	25.1%	27.8%	0.90×	3.99
Monza to score 2+ in a row	20.5%	19.6%	32.0%	0.61×	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.7%	12.1%	17.8%	0.68×	8.29
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	8.8%	5.6%	7.9%	0.71×	17.97
Monza to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	5.5%	10.0%	0.55×	18.27

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	84.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Monza corners (+3.5)	82.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Napoli corners (+2.5)	77.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Monza corners (+2.5)	74.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Napoli corners (+1.5)	68.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Monza corners (+1.5)	64.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli corners (-1.5)	35.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Monza corners (-1.5)	31.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Napoli corners (-2.5)	25.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Monza corners (-2.5)	22.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Napoli corners (-3.5)	17.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Monza corners (-3.5)	15.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 9.5 corners	60.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	60.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	39.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	39.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.2%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.71
0-0	10.7%	11.5%	7.9%	1.45×	8.72
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	10.2%	1.13×	8.72
0-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	9.4%	0.78×	13.51
2-0	5.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.51
0-3	3.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
1-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.31
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
3-0	1.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.32
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	61.3%	62.6%	46.3%	1.35×	1.60
Monza (2nd half DNB)	38.7%	37.4%	53.7%	0.70×	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	52.6%	56.4%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	47.4%	43.6%	51.3%	0.85×	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or Napoli (12)	71.4%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Napoli or draw (X2)	70.0%	72.1%	59.9%	1.20×	1.39
Monza or draw (1X)	58.6%	57.1%	66.4%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	72.2%	74.7%	71.6%	1.04×	1.34
Monza or draw at HT	69.1%	67.2%	73.0%	0.92×	1.49
Monza or Napoli at HT	58.8%	57.7%	55.3%	1.04×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	70.0%	79.4%	65.4%	1.21×	1.26
Monza or draw (1UP)	58.6%	63.1%	71.7%	0.88×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	79.2%	75.9%	65.0%	1.17×	1.32
Monza or draw in 2nd half	67.0%	65.9%	69.8%	0.94×	1.52
Monza or Napoli in 2nd half	53.8%	54.5%	65.1%	0.84×	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.4%	68.3%	63.6%	1.07×	1.47
Neither half drawn	31.6%	31.7%	36.4%	0.87×	3.15

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	58.0%	58.1%	45.5%	1.28×	1.72
Monza (DNB)	42.0%	41.9%	54.5%	0.77×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	49.3%	46.1%	43.5%	1.06×	2.17
Monza to score first	40.1%	41.5%	48.7%	0.85×	2.41
No goal scored	10.7%	9.4%	7.9%	1.20×	10.59

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.1%	55.0%	50.8%	1.08×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.9%	45.0%	49.2%	0.91×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	48.0%	44.4%	40.1%	1.11×	2.25
Both score & over 2.5	31.7%	34.5%	37.5%	0.92×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.1%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.7%	89.0%	86.4%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.3%	11.0%	13.6%	0.81×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	85.0%	74.6%	74.7%	1.00×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	15.0%	25.4%	25.3%	1.00×	3.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	66.9%	63.4%	62.6%	1.01×	1.58
Both score 1st half only	18.0%	15.1%	12.2%	1.24×	6.63
Both score 2nd half only	11.9%	10.8%	20.6%	0.52×	9.29
Both score in both halves	3.2%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.46

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.8%	81.2%	83.0%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.2%	18.8%	17.0%	1.11×	5.32

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	55.1%	56.9%	47.3%	1.20×	1.76
A goal in each half	44.9%	43.1%	52.7%	0.82×	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	48.5%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	34.5%	30.8%	26.9%	1.14×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.0%	20.2%	23.9%	0.85×	4.95
7+ goals	0.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.45

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Napoli to score exactly 0	29.1%	27.4%	30.3%	0.90×	3.65
Napoli to score exactly 2	22.2%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.49
Napoli to score 3+	12.8%	12.9%	11.9%	1.08×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.6%	31.9%	1.11×	2.81
Monza to score exactly 0	36.6%	35.6%	28.3%	1.26×	2.81
Monza to score exactly 2	18.5%	18.8%	24.9%	0.75×	5.33
Monza to score 3+	8.1%	10.3%	15.2%	0.68×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.2%	42.3%	44.7%	0.95×	2.36
Napoli leading at HT	30.9%	32.8%	27.0%	1.22×	3.05
Monza leading at HT	27.8%	25.3%	28.4%	0.89×	3.96

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 1	58.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Napoli -1: X	23.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Napoli -1: 2	18.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	70.0%	70.9%	59.9%	1.19×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	22.7%	0.79×	5.61
Monza (0:1)	11.1%	13.7%	17.6%	0.78×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	88.9%	87.1%	82.4%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.0%	7.7%	10.0%	0.76×	13.04
Monza (0:2)	3.1%	3.7%	7.6%	0.49×	26.70

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	96.9%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.12
Monza (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	82.11
Monza (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.16

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1:0)	58.6%	58.4%	66.4%	0.88×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	23.2%	21.7%	19.2%	1.13×	4.61
Napoli (1:0)	18.3%	17.1%	14.5%	1.18×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2:0)	81.7%	84.6%	85.5%	0.99×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.0%	10.3%	8.7%	1.18×	9.73
Napoli (2:0)	6.2%	6.4%	5.9%	1.09×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	41.6%	45.5%	26.9%	1.69×	2.20
2nd half highest scoring	29.9%	26.2%	46.5%	0.56×	3.81
Halves equal	28.6%	26.2%	26.8%	0.98×	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	70.9%	73.1%	69.7%	1.05×	1.37
Monza clean sheet	29.1%	26.9%	30.3%	0.89×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	52.6%	55.4%	59.0%	0.94×	1.81
Monza to concede in 1st half	47.4%	44.6%	41.0%	1.09×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 2nd half	55.3%	54.5%	49.8%	1.09×	1.83
Monza to concede in 2nd half	44.7%	45.5%	50.2%	0.91×	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 6.5 corners	81.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Monza over 2.5 corners	73.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Monza under 5.5 corners	71.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Monza under 4.5 corners	58.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Monza over 3.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Monza under 3.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Monza over 4.5 corners	41.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Monza over 5.5 corners	28.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Monza under 2.5 corners	26.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Monza over 6.5 corners	18.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	98.1%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Monza under 2.5 goals	91.9%	92.2%	84.8%	1.09×	1.08
Monza under 1.5 goals	73.4%	74.2%	60.1%	1.24×	1.35
Monza over 0.5 goals	63.4%	63.6%	71.7%	0.89×	1.57
Monza under 0.5 goals	36.6%	36.4%	28.3%	1.29×	2.75
Monza over 1.5 goals	26.6%	25.8%	39.9%	0.65×	3.88
Monza over 2.5 goals	8.1%	7.8%	15.2%	0.51×	12.86
Monza over 3.5 goals	1.9%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.59

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	88.0%	90.2%	89.4%	1.01×	1.11
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	55.2%	56.8%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	44.8%	43.2%	42.1%	1.03×	2.31
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	12.0%	9.8%	10.6%	0.92×	10.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza scores equally in both	46.1%	47.0%	41.6%	1.13×	2.13
Monza scores more in 1st half	33.1%	33.2%	22.1%	1.50×	3.01
Monza scores more in 2nd half	20.8%	21.0%	36.4%	0.58×	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (home no bet)	59.2%	56.5%	56.0%	1.01×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.8%	43.5%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	56.7%	55.3%	56.3%	0.98×	1.81
Monza odd goals	43.3%	44.7%	43.7%	1.02×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.0%	28.5%	33.9%	0.84×	3.51
HT 0-1	18.7%	18.5%	18.0%	1.03×	5.40
HT 1-0	17.2%	18.5%	18.5%	1.00×	5.41
HT 1-1	11.1%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.12
HT 0-2	6.0%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.48
HT 2-0	5.1%	6.9%	5.7%	1.20×	14.50
Any other HT score	4.9%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	41.89
HT 1-2	3.6%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	41.98
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.4%	2.4%	1.00×	41.99
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	0.7%	3.31×	42.14

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	26.0%	27.2%	19.0%	1.43×	3.68
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	20.5%	21.6%	22.0%	0.98×	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.0%	16.8%	16.0%	1.05×	5.95
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	13.6%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.90
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	8.6%	6.1%	16.0%	0.38×	16.40
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.1%	4.8%	1.27×	16.49
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.82
Monza at HT / Napoli at FT	1.9%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.90
Napoli at HT / Monza at FT	0.9%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	49.3%	46.6%	44.2%	1.05×	2.15
Monza to score last	40.1%	40.0%	48.0%	0.83×	2.50
No goal scored	10.7%	8.8%	7.9%	1.12×	11.31

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.3%	91.6%	92.1%	0.99×	1.09
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	55.1%	54.8%	50.3%	1.09×	1.82
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	44.8%	39.3%	55.4%	0.71×	2.54
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.1%	34.7%	44.0%	0.79×	2.88
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	23.0%	19.6%	20.2%	0.97×	5.11
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	15.2%	14.8%	24.3%	0.61×	6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	10.5%	15.1%	0.70×	9.53
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	6.5%	1.04×	14.95
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	4.1%	1.6%	8.7%	0.19×	61.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	46.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Monza most corners	42.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.7%	83.4%	80.6%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.5%	72.3%	67.5%	1.07×	1.38
2-6 goals	64.7%	63.3%	72.3%	0.88×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.8%	63.3%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.8%	59.1%	61.6%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.6%	53.2%	44.1%	1.21×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.0%	39.2%	47.3%	0.83×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.1%	39.2%	45.2%	0.87×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.1%	35.2%	36.7%	0.96×	2.84
4-6 goals	18.0%	18.8%	23.9%	0.79×	5.31
4-5 goals	16.2%	18.8%	21.7%	0.87×	5.31
5-6 goals	6.9%	8.9%	10.8%	0.83×	11.27
7+ goals	0.8%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	44.5%	48.7%	44.6%	1.09×	2.05
Monza never behind	34.2%	36.3%	49.7%	0.73×	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.8%	56.6%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.2%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	56.7%	59.8%	50.7%	1.18×	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.3%	40.2%	49.3%	0.82×	2.49

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.3%	95.4%	96.9%	0.98×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	88.4%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.3%	87.6%	92.1%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	81.2%	82.3%	75.3%	1.09×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	65.5%	66.3%	73.1%	0.91×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	61.2%	61.7%	51.9%	1.19×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	38.8%	38.3%	48.1%	0.79×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	34.5%	33.7%	26.9%	1.25×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	18.8%	17.7%	24.7%	0.72×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	10.7%	12.4%	7.9%	1.57×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	11.6%	0.67×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	2.7%	4.6%	3.1%	1.47×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.2%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.2%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.4%	92.4%	86.7%	1.07×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	76.5%	75.9%	67.7%	1.12×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	52.9%	51.9%	64.2%	0.81×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	47.1%	48.1%	35.8%	1.34×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	23.5%	24.1%	32.3%	0.75×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	8.6%	7.6%	13.3%	0.57×	13.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.8%	2.8%	3.4%	0.83×	35.59
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.8%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.1%	89.0%	91.3%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.0%	71.4%	66.1%	1.08×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.3%	70.3%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.7%	29.7%	1.23×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	33.9%	0.84×	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.9%	11.0%	8.7%	1.26×	9.10

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	91.9%	90.1%	82.2%	1.10×	1.11
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.5%	77.6%	56.6%	1.37×	1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	61.4%	78.7%	0.78×	1.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	38.6%	21.3%	1.82×	2.59
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.5%	22.4%	43.4%	0.52×	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	8.1%	9.9%	17.8%	0.55×	10.13

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to score in both halves	84.9%	84.3%	75.7%	1.11×	1.19
Napoli not to score in both halves	78.8%	78.6%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
Napoli to score in both halves	21.2%	21.4%	21.5%	1.00×	4.67
Monza to score in both halves	15.1%	15.7%	24.3%	0.65×	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.9%	46.6%	49.2%	0.95×	2.15
Only Napoli scores	26.0%	26.0%	20.6%	1.27×	3.84
Only Monza scores	18.4%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Neither team scores	10.7%	11.0%	7.9%	1.40×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.7%	24.9%	25.1%	0.99×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	23.9%	22.6%	19.1%	1.18×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.9%	17.5%	23.5%	0.74×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	11.2%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	10.7%	12.1%	7.9%	1.54×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.0%	4.5%	8.6%	0.52×	22.34
6 or more goals	2.7%	4.5%	3.1%	1.44×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	36.4%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	33.9%	0.84×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.2%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.9%	10.9%	8.7%	1.25×	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.8%	40.2%	35.5%	1.13×	2.49
No goals in 2nd half	36.7%	40.2%	21.3%	1.89×	2.49
2+ goals in 2nd half	26.5%	29.4%	43.4%	0.68×	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to win both halves	94.2%	94.2%	90.0%	1.05×	1.06
Napoli not to win both halves	89.8%	88.1%	91.2%	0.97×	1.14
Napoli to win both halves	10.2%	11.9%	8.8%	1.35×	8.37
Monza to win both halves	5.8%	5.8%	10.0%	0.58×	17.18

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win neither half	57.1%	59.1%	46.6%	1.27×	1.69
Napoli to win either half	53.7%	54.3%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Napoli to win neither half	46.3%	45.7%	51.6%	0.89×	2.19
Monza to win either half	42.9%	40.9%	53.4%	0.77×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza not to win to nil	81.6%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Napoli not to win to nil	74.0%	75.4%	79.5%	0.95×	1.33
Napoli to win to nil	26.0%	24.6%	20.6%	1.20×	4.06
Monza to win to nil	18.4%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.6%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Napoli by 1	23.2%	24.1%	19.2%	1.25×	4.15
Monza by 1	18.9%	17.1%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87
Napoli by 2	12.0%	11.8%	8.7%	1.35×	8.51
Monza by 2	8.0%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Napoli by 3+	6.2%	7.2%	5.9%	1.23×	13.91
Monza by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	7.6%	0.36×	36.83