Monza v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.01
Goals − xG
+0.07 – +0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monza win
32.6%
Draw
31.0%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
36.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monza are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLWLLLLD last 10
scored 7
from 11.3 xG
conceded 22
from 16.1 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monza 0.93 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monza attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 15' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 18' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 26' |
Monza |
Alessandro Bianco | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gaetano Castrovilli |
| 32' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dennis Man |
| 41' |
Monza |
Kevin Zeroli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 42' |
Monza |
Keita | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 52' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Dennis Man | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 57' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Monza |
Gaetano Castrovilli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dany Mota |
| 59' |
Monza |
Armando Izzo | 0.30 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Danilo D'Ambrosio |
| 61' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 68' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 73' |
Monza |
Kevin Zeroli | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 74' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 79' |
Monza |
Keita | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dany Mota |
| 83' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mandela Keita |
| 89' |
Monza |
Keita | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dany Mota |
| 91' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Anas Haj Mohamed | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armando Izzo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Keita FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Dany Mota FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| Pedro Pereira DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Danilo D'Ambrosio DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Kevin Zeroli MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gaetano Castrovilli MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Samuele Birindelli DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Patrick Ciurria Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Roberto Gagliardini Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Lekovic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gianluca Caprari Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Pontus Almqvist FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Giovanni Leoni DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nahuel Estévez MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Dennis Man FWR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Anas Haj Mohamed Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hernani Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Botond Balogh Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.16 |