Moreirense v Benfica — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Moreirense

19:45 UTC

Benfica

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 36h before kick-off

Moreirense win

7.6%

model 9.8%

Draw

10.5%

model 14.6%

Benfica win

81.9%

model 75.6%

81182

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (59 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-2 11.1%
0-3 9.6%
1-2 9.1%
0-1 8.7%
1-3 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	66.3%	Under 2.5	33.7%
BTTS yes	51.6%	BTTS no	48.4%
Moreirense 1+	56.0%	Moreirense 2+	19.9%
Benfica 1+	92.5%	Benfica 2+	73.1%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Benfica over 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 35%

71.3% fair odds 1.40

strong signal · 11579 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 579 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Benfica carry the stronger rating, 1782 Elo against 1439.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Benfica have an estimated 81.9% win probability, against 10.5% for the draw and 7.6% for Moreirense. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.82 for Moreirense and 2.59 for Benfica.

Why Moreirense

Nothing in the data singles out Moreirense.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Benfica can win

Benfica carry the stronger rating, 1782 Elo against 1439. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Moreirense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Benfica, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Moreirense: 49% possession, 8.2 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Benfica: 59% possession, 23.2 shots a match, 7.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Benfica are the model's most likely outcome at 81.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.1%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	101576	0.82–2.59	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	111674	0.84–2.48	0-2 11%	64%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win	75.6%	80.0%	31.3%	2.55×	1.25
Draw	14.6%	13.0%	26.7%	0.49×	7.69
Moreirense to win	9.8%	8.2%	42.1%	0.20×	12.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica & not both score	40.9%	41.0%	19.8%	2.08×	2.44
Benfica & both teams score	34.7%	31.0%	11.7%	2.64×	3.23
Draw & both teams score	11.5%	12.6%	20.4%	0.62×	7.91
Moreirense & both teams score	5.4%	7.7%	16.2%	0.47×	13.05
Moreirense & not both score	4.4%	4.1%	26.1%	0.16×	24.25
Draw & not both score	3.1%	4.1%	6.5%	0.64×	24.28

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica & over 1.5	66.8%	66.9%	22.4%	2.99×	1.49
Benfica & over 2.5	55.8%	57.5%	17.3%	3.33×	1.74
Benfica & under 3.5	38.5%	36.6%	25.5%	1.44×	2.73
Benfica & over 3.5	37.1%	36.6%	6.0%	6.08×	2.73
Benfica & under 2.5	19.8%	17.7%	14.2%	1.25×	5.66
Draw & over 1.5	11.5%	12.5%	20.4%	0.61×	8.03
Draw & under 2.5	9.9%	7.6%	17.3%	0.44×	13.17
Draw & under 3.5	9.9%	7.6%	17.3%	0.44×	13.17
Moreirense & over 1.5	6.9%	7.6%	31.5%	0.24×	13.17
Moreirense & under 3.5	7.2%	7.6%	29.2%	0.26×	13.17
Benfica & under 1.5	8.8%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.17
Moreirense & over 2.5	5.8%	7.6%	24.7%	0.31×	13.17
Moreirense & under 2.5	4.0%	4.3%	17.6%	0.25×	23.00
Draw & over 2.5	4.8%	4.3%	9.6%	0.45×	22.99
Draw & over 3.5	4.8%	4.3%	9.6%	0.45×	22.99
Moreirense & under 1.5	2.9%	4.3%	10.8%	0.40×	23.00
Moreirense & over 3.5	2.6%	4.3%	13.1%	0.33×	23.00
Draw & under 1.5	3.1%	4.3%	6.5%	0.67×	23.00

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (1UP)	84.2%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Moreirense (1UP)	26.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (2UP)	75.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Moreirense (2UP)	9.8%	8.7%	—	—	11.53

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win 2nd half	64.4%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
2nd half drawn	24.6%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Moreirense to win 2nd half	11.0%	14.1%	—	—	7.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (+2.5)	99.4%	96.6%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Benfica (+1.5)	97.2%	96.6%	77.8%	1.24×	1.04
Benfica (+0.5)	90.2%	92.3%	57.9%	1.59×	1.08
Benfica (-0.5)	75.6%	78.2%	31.3%	2.50×	1.28
Moreirense (+0.5)	24.4%	21.8%	68.7%	0.32×	4.60
Moreirense (-0.5)	9.8%	7.7%	42.1%	0.18×	12.95
Moreirense (-1.5)	2.8%	3.4%	22.2%	0.15×	29.56
Moreirense (-2.5)	0.6%	3.4%	10.3%	0.33×	29.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to concede	56.0%	61.0%	73.9%	0.83×	1.64
Benfica clean sheet	44.0%	39.0%	26.1%	1.49×	2.57

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica clean sheet in 1st half	70.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Benfica to concede in 1st half	29.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica over 2.5 corners	90.1%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Benfica over 3.5 corners	80.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Benfica over 4.5 corners	68.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Benfica under 6.5 corners	56.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Benfica over 5.5 corners	55.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Benfica under 5.5 corners	44.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Benfica over 6.5 corners	43.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Benfica under 4.5 corners	31.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Benfica under 3.5 corners	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
Benfica under 2.5 corners	9.9%	10.0%	—	—	10.04

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica over 0.5 goals	92.5%	92.1%	67.6%	1.36×	1.09
Benfica under 3.5 goals	73.8%	71.3%	96.1%	0.74×	1.40
Benfica over 1.5 goals	73.1%	71.3%	34.6%	2.06×	1.40
Benfica under 2.5 goals	52.1%	53.6%	88.9%	0.60×	1.87
Benfica over 2.5 goals	47.9%	46.4%	11.1%	4.18×	2.16
Benfica under 1.5 goals	26.9%	28.7%	65.4%	0.44×	3.48
Benfica over 3.5 goals	26.2%	28.7%	3.9%	7.44×	3.48
Benfica under 0.5 goals	7.5%	7.9%	32.4%	0.24×	12.61

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica under 1.5 in 1st half	72.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Benfica over 0.5 in 1st half	64.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Benfica under 0.5 in 1st half	35.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Benfica over 1.5 in 1st half	27.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.18

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	59.9%	58.5%	38.8%	1.51×	1.71
Moreirense (away no bet)	40.1%	41.5%	61.2%	0.68×	2.41

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica even goals	50.3%	53.5%	58.6%	0.91×	1.87
Benfica odd goals	49.7%	46.5%	41.4%	1.12×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.7%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.7%	69.7%	—	—	1.43
Benfica to score 2+ in a row	66.8%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Either team to score 3+ in a row	39.9%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Benfica to score 3+ in a row	38.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Moreirense to score 2+ in a row	11.8%	12.8%	—	—	7.84
Moreirense to score 3+ in a row	1.9%	3.0%	—	—	33.08

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica corners (+3.5)	98.2%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Benfica corners (+2.5)	96.3%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Benfica corners (+1.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Benfica corners (-1.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Benfica corners (-2.5)	60.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Moreirense corners (+3.5)	50.8%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Benfica corners (-3.5)	49.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Moreirense corners (+2.5)	39.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Moreirense corners (+1.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Moreirense corners (-1.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Moreirense corners (-2.5)	3.7%	4.2%	—	—	23.57
Moreirense corners (-3.5)	1.8%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.2%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.0%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.8%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	31.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.2%	11.2%	2.9%	3.83×	8.90
0-2	11.1%	11.2%	5.2%	2.14×	8.90
0-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
0-3	9.6%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.48
0-4	6.2%	7.4%	1.2%	6.01×	13.49
1-1	6.8%	7.4%	11.0%	0.68×	13.49
1-2	9.1%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
1-3	7.9%	7.4%	1.4%	5.34×	13.48
1-4	5.1%	7.4%	1.1%	6.86×	13.49
0-0	3.1%	1.7%	6.5%	0.27×	58.10
1-0	2.9%	1.7%	10.8%	0.16×	58.10
2-0	1.1%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.11
2-1	2.9%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.10
2-2	3.7%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.10
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.10
2-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
3-0	0.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.11
3-1	0.8%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.11
3-2	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.11
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	11.15×	58.11
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.11
4-1	0.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.11
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica leading at HT (DNB)	80.8%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Moreirense leading at HT (DNB)	19.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.62

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw (X2)	90.2%	91.8%	57.9%	1.59×	1.09
Moreirense or Benfica (12)	85.4%	87.0%	73.3%	1.19×	1.15
Moreirense or draw (1X)	24.4%	20.0%	68.7%	0.29×	4.99

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw at HT	87.5%	86.6%	—	—	1.16
Moreirense or Benfica at HT	65.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Moreirense or draw at HT	47.3%	51.0%	—	—	1.96

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw (1UP)	90.2%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Moreirense or draw (1UP)	26.8%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw in 2nd half	89.0%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Moreirense or Benfica in 2nd half	75.4%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Moreirense or draw in 2nd half	35.6%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	48.9%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
A half drawn	51.1%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (DNB)	88.5%	87.9%	42.6%	2.06×	1.14
Moreirense (DNB)	11.5%	12.1%	57.4%	0.21×	8.24

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score first	73.6%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Moreirense to score first	23.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
No goal scored	3.1%	4.4%	—	—	22.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.6%	51.8%	48.0%	1.08×	1.93
Not both teams to score	48.4%	48.2%	52.0%	0.93×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.8%	41.7%	37.2%	1.12×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	26.9%	31.4%	38.0%	0.83×	3.18
Not both score & over 2.5	21.5%	25.4%	14.2%	1.79×	3.94
Both score & under 2.5	6.8%	8.5%	11.0%	0.77×	11.82

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.4%	85.9%	86.0%	1.00×	1.16
Both teams to score 2+	14.6%	14.1%	14.0%	1.00×	7.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.6%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.4%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Both score 2nd half only	23.8%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
Both score 1st half only	13.5%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Both score in both halves	5.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.12

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.8%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.2%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
A half without a goal	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.8%	43.4%	45.7%	0.95×	2.31
4-6 goals	38.7%	35.5%	27.6%	1.29×	2.81
0-1 goals	14.7%	15.0%	26.1%	0.57×	6.68
7+ goals	5.8%	6.8%	0.9%	7.34×	14.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score 3+	47.9%	43.5%	11.1%	3.91×	2.30
Benfica to score exactly 2	25.2%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.66
Benfica to score exactly 1	19.4%	18.4%	33.2%	0.55×	5.43
Benfica to score exactly 0	7.5%	8.7%	32.4%	0.27×	11.53

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense to score exactly 0	44.0%	39.5%	26.1%	1.52×	2.53
Moreirense to score exactly 1	36.1%	36.5%	31.5%	1.16×	2.74
Moreirense to score exactly 2	14.9%	13.2%	23.6%	0.56×	7.58
Moreirense to score 3+	5.1%	8.8%	19.1%	0.46×	11.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica leading at HT	52.7%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Draw at HT	34.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Moreirense leading at HT	12.5%	13.4%	—	—	7.45

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica -1: 2	53.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Benfica -1: 1	24.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Benfica -1: X	21.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:1)	90.2%	90.3%	57.9%	1.56×	1.11
Draw (0:1)	7.0%	8.7%	20.1%	0.43×	11.48
Moreirense (0:1)	2.8%	3.6%	22.2%	0.16×	28.00

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:2)	97.2%	96.5%	77.8%	1.24×	1.04
Draw (0:2)	2.1%	3.5%	12.0%	0.29×	28.84
Moreirense (0:2)	0.6%	3.5%	10.3%	0.33×	28.89

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:3)	99.4%	96.7%	89.7%	1.08×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	0.5%	2.6%	6.0%	0.43×	39.00
Moreirense (0:3)	0.1%	2.6%	4.5%	0.57×	39.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:4)	99.9%	97.7%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Moreirense (0:4)	0.0%	1.4%	1.4%	1.02×	70.62
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.4%	3.2%	0.44×	70.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (1:0)	53.9%	52.1%	13.7%	3.80×	1.92
Moreirense (1:0)	24.4%	21.9%	68.7%	0.32×	4.56
Draw (1:0)	21.7%	21.9%	17.7%	1.24×	4.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense (2:0)	46.1%	51.2%	86.3%	0.59×	1.95
Benfica (2:0)	32.5%	23.8%	6.8%	3.51×	4.20
Draw (2:0)	21.3%	20.9%	7.1%	2.94×	4.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.3%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	21.2%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense to concede	92.5%	91.3%	67.6%	1.35×	1.10
Moreirense clean sheet	7.5%	8.7%	32.4%	0.27×	11.48

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense to concede in 1st half	64.6%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Moreirense clean sheet in 1st half	35.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense under 6.5 corners	96.4%	94.8%	—	—	1.06
Moreirense under 5.5 corners	92.2%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Moreirense under 4.5 corners	84.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Moreirense under 3.5 corners	71.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Moreirense under 2.5 corners	51.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Moreirense over 2.5 corners	48.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Moreirense over 3.5 corners	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Moreirense over 4.5 corners	15.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Moreirense over 5.5 corners	7.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Moreirense over 6.5 corners	3.6%	5.2%	—	—	19.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense under 3.5 goals	99.0%	96.6%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Moreirense under 2.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	80.9%	1.14×	1.08
Moreirense under 1.5 goals	80.1%	82.2%	57.4%	1.43×	1.22
Moreirense over 0.5 goals	56.0%	57.6%	73.9%	0.78×	1.74
Moreirense under 0.5 goals	44.0%	42.4%	26.1%	1.62×	2.36
Moreirense over 1.5 goals	19.9%	17.8%	42.6%	0.42×	5.61
Moreirense over 2.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	19.1%	0.40×	13.05
Moreirense over 3.5 goals	1.0%	3.4%	6.5%	0.53×	29.12

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense under 1.5 in 1st half	95.0%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Moreirense under 0.5 in 1st half	70.2%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Moreirense over 0.5 in 1st half	29.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Moreirense over 1.5 in 1st half	5.0%	4.0%	—	—	25.07

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (home no bet)	83.8%	84.8%	54.0%	1.57×	1.18
Draw (home no bet)	16.2%	15.2%	46.0%	0.33×	6.58

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense even goals	59.7%	55.5%	54.6%	1.02×	1.80
Moreirense odd goals	40.3%	44.5%	45.4%	0.98×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-1	25.9%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
HT 0-0	24.8%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
HT 0-2	13.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
Any other HT score	9.2%	8.0%	—	—	12.44
HT 1-1	9.1%	8.0%	—	—	12.45
HT 1-0	8.8%	8.0%	—	—	12.45
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.33
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.48
HT 2-0	1.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.48
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica at HT / Benfica at FT	49.0%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Draw at HT / Benfica at FT	22.6%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.3%	6.4%	—	—	15.53
Moreirense at HT / Moreirense at FT	5.2%	6.4%	—	—	15.59
Moreirense at HT / Benfica at FT	4.0%	3.7%	—	—	27.28
Draw at HT / Moreirense at FT	3.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.29
Moreirense at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.7%	—	—	27.30
Benfica at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.31
Benfica at HT / Moreirense at FT	0.7%	3.7%	—	—	27.37

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score last	73.5%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Moreirense to score last	23.4%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
No goal scored	3.1%	4.4%	—	—	22.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.9%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Benfica to lead by 1 at any time	84.2%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.7%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Benfica to lead by 2 at any time	60.0%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	37.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Benfica to lead by 3 at any time	36.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Moreirense to lead by 1 at any time	26.8%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Moreirense to lead by 2 at any time	6.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.21
Moreirense to lead by 3 at any time	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	40.95

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica most corners	80.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Moreirense most corners	12.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.63
Corners level	7.4%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.9%	82.0%	89.8%	0.91×	1.22
2-6 goals	79.5%	77.9%	73.1%	1.07×	1.28
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.1%	70.2%	1.03×	1.39
1-4 goals	71.1%	72.1%	83.0%	0.87×	1.39
3-6 goals	60.5%	62.7%	50.5%	1.24×	1.60
2-4 goals	59.5%	58.8%	63.4%	0.93×	1.70
3-5 goals	53.3%	52.9%	47.5%	1.11×	1.89
1-3 goals	52.5%	52.9%	65.3%	0.81×	1.89
2-3 goals	40.8%	43.7%	45.7%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.7%	40.7%	1.07×	2.29
4-6 goals	38.7%	39.0%	27.6%	1.41×	2.56
4-5 goals	31.4%	34.6%	24.7%	1.40×	2.89
1-2 goals	30.6%	34.6%	42.4%	0.81×	2.89
5-6 goals	20.0%	23.8%	9.9%	2.41×	4.20
7+ goals	5.8%	8.9%	0.9%	9.65×	11.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica never behind	70.1%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Moreirense never behind	12.7%	11.3%	—	—	8.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.4%	50.0%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.0%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.9%	96.0%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	87.0%	87.7%	96.1%	0.91×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.3%	87.7%	73.9%	1.19×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	74.2%	72.2%	89.4%	0.81×	1.39
Over 2.5 goals	66.3%	67.5%	51.2%	1.32×	1.48
Under 3.5 goals	55.6%	57.5%	71.6%	0.80×	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	44.4%	42.5%	28.4%	1.50×	2.35
Under 2.5 goals	33.7%	32.5%	48.8%	0.67×	3.08
Over 4.5 goals	25.8%	27.8%	10.6%	2.61×	3.60
Under 1.5 goals	14.7%	12.3%	26.1%	0.47×	8.14
Over 5.5 goals	13.0%	12.3%	3.9%	3.18×	8.14
Under 0.5 goals	3.1%	4.0%	6.5%	0.61×	25.26

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.8%	92.0%	99.0%	0.93×	1.09
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.1%	86.6%	95.9%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.8%	81.3%	66.3%	1.23×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.3%	67.4%	87.1%	0.77×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.9%	58.0%	36.8%	1.57×	1.73
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.1%	42.0%	63.2%	0.67×	2.38
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.7%	32.6%	12.9%	2.52×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.2%	18.7%	33.7%	0.55×	5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.9%	13.4%	4.1%	3.23×	7.49
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.2%	8.0%	1.0%	8.35×	12.56

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.6%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.2%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.5%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.8%	22.8%	—	—	4.38
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.4%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.9%	84.6%	—	—	1.18
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.1%	15.4%	—	—	6.50

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense not to score in both halves	88.9%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Benfica to score in both halves	50.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Benfica not to score in both halves	49.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Moreirense to score in both halves	11.1%	14.7%	—	—	6.78

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.6%	54.5%	48.0%	1.13×	1.84
Only Benfica scores	40.9%	45.4%	19.8%	2.30×	2.20
Only Moreirense scores	4.4%	4.0%	26.1%	0.15×	25.10
Neither team scores	3.1%	4.0%	6.5%	0.61×	25.14

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.3%	23.0%	0.97×	4.48
Exactly 2 goals	19.0%	17.6%	22.8%	0.77×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	18.7%	17.6%	17.9%	0.98×	5.69
6 or more goals	13.0%	12.3%	3.9%	3.19×	8.13
Exactly 5 goals	12.7%	12.3%	6.9%	1.77×	8.13
Exactly 1 goals	11.7%	12.3%	19.8%	0.62×	8.13
Exactly 0 goals	3.1%	4.1%	6.5%	0.63×	24.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.0%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
1 goal in 2nd half	26.9%	26.7%	—	—	3.75
No goals in 2nd half	13.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense not to win both halves	98.6%	97.5%	—	—	1.03
Benfica not to win both halves	66.1%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Benfica to win both halves	33.9%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Moreirense to win both halves	1.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.42

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win either half	83.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Moreirense to win neither half	77.9%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Moreirense to win either half	22.1%	19.2%	—	—	5.22
Benfica to win neither half	16.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Moreirense not to win to nil	95.6%	96.1%	73.9%	1.30×	1.04
Benfica not to win to nil	59.1%	59.1%	80.2%	0.74×	1.69
Benfica to win to nil	40.9%	40.9%	19.8%	2.07×	2.44
Moreirense to win to nil	4.4%	3.9%	26.1%	0.15×	25.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica by 3+	32.5%	29.1%	6.8%	4.28×	3.44
Benfica by 1	21.7%	23.3%	17.7%	1.31×	4.29
Benfica by 2	21.3%	23.3%	7.1%	3.28×	4.29
Draw	14.6%	11.8%	26.7%	0.44×	8.46
Moreirense by 1	7.0%	7.3%	20.1%	0.37×	13.66
Moreirense by 2	2.1%	3.0%	12.0%	0.25×	33.83
Moreirense by 3+	0.6%	3.0%	10.3%	0.29×	33.85