Motherwell v Kilmarnock — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Motherwell

15:00 UTC

Kilmarnock

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 964h before kick-off

Motherwell win

64.3%

model 65.5%

Draw

17.9%

model 19.0%

Kilmarnock win

17.8%

model 15.4%

641818

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 9.4%
1-1 8.9%
3-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.2%	Under 2.5	38.8%
BTTS yes	54.9%	BTTS no	45.1%
Motherwell 1+	88.9%	Motherwell 2+	64.5%
Kilmarnock 1+	61.8%	Kilmarnock 2+	25.1%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Motherwell (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 46%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Kilmarnock not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Motherwell carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1393.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Motherwell have an estimated 64.3% win probability, against 17.9% for the draw and 17.8% for Kilmarnock. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.20 for Motherwell and 0.96 for Kilmarnock.

Why Motherwell

Motherwell carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1393. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.9%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Kilmarnock can win

Nothing in the data singles out Kilmarnock.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Motherwell, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kilmarnock, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Motherwell: 57% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kilmarnock: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Motherwell's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Motherwell are the model's most likely outcome at 64.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.2%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	661915	2.20–0.96	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	691814	2.30–0.91	2-0 11%	62%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to win	68.6%	64.8%	45.9%	1.41×	1.54
Draw	17.9%	19.4%	23.3%	0.83×	5.15
Kilmarnock to win	13.5%	13.5%	31.0%	0.43×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell & not both score	36.3%	33.3%	27.5%	1.21×	3.00
Motherwell & both teams score	32.3%	29.6%	18.6%	1.59×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	14.0%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.54
Kilmarnock & both teams score	7.4%	8.3%	16.3%	0.51×	12.00
Kilmarnock & not both score	6.1%	8.3%	14.9%	0.56×	12.01
Draw & not both score	4.0%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.50

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell & over 1.5	59.1%	54.9%	36.6%	1.50×	1.82
Motherwell & over 2.5	48.5%	45.1%	28.1%	1.60×	2.22
Motherwell & under 3.5	38.0%	34.9%	30.2%	1.16×	2.87
Motherwell & over 3.5	30.6%	30.7%	15.9%	1.93×	3.25
Motherwell & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	18.0%	1.20×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	14.0%	12.8%	17.8%	0.72×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.3%	12.8%	14.9%	0.86×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.3%	12.8%	14.9%	0.86×	7.79
Motherwell & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.63
Kilmarnock & over 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	24.4%	0.32×	12.62
Kilmarnock & under 3.5	9.9%	7.9%	22.5%	0.35×	12.62
Kilmarnock & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	20.5%	0.39×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.63
Kilmarnock & under 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	5.8%	0.83×	20.82
Kilmarnock & under 1.5	3.8%	4.8%	6.8%	0.70×	20.82
Kilmarnock & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	8.7%	0.55×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (1UP)	79.2%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Kilmarnock (1UP)	31.5%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (2UP)	68.6%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Kilmarnock (2UP)	13.5%	14.0%	—	—	7.15

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to win 2nd half	55.5%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
2nd half drawn	28.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Kilmarnock to win 2nd half	15.6%	17.7%	—	—	5.65

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.5%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.9%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.5%	12.8%	—	—	7.84

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.0%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Motherwell under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.4%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Motherwell over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Motherwell under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (+0.5)	86.5%	88.5%	69.0%	1.28×	1.13
Kilmarnock (+2.5)	75.0%	73.7%	87.8%	0.84×	1.36
Motherwell (-0.5)	68.6%	68.7%	45.9%	1.50×	1.46
Kilmarnock (+1.5)	54.6%	52.4%	73.6%	0.71×	1.91
Motherwell (-1.5)	45.4%	47.6%	26.4%	1.80×	2.10
Kilmarnock (+0.5)	31.4%	31.3%	54.1%	0.58×	3.19
Motherwell (-2.5)	25.0%	26.3%	12.2%	2.16×	3.80
Kilmarnock (-0.5)	13.5%	11.5%	31.0%	0.37×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock to concede	89.9%	86.3%	79.5%	1.09×	1.16
Kilmarnock clean sheet	10.1%	13.7%	20.5%	0.67×	7.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 1st half	62.7%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 1st half	37.3%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 2nd half	73.0%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 2nd half	27.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.50

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock under 6.5 corners	87.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Kilmarnock under 5.5 corners	78.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Kilmarnock over 2.5 corners	70.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Kilmarnock under 4.5 corners	65.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Kilmarnock over 3.5 corners	51.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Kilmarnock under 3.5 corners	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Kilmarnock over 4.5 corners	34.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Kilmarnock under 2.5 corners	29.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Kilmarnock over 5.5 corners	21.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Kilmarnock over 6.5 corners	12.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	96.3%	1.01×	1.03
Kilmarnock under 2.5 goals	93.5%	92.4%	85.5%	1.08×	1.08
Kilmarnock under 1.5 goals	76.8%	76.2%	63.2%	1.21×	1.31
Kilmarnock over 0.5 goals	59.8%	59.5%	66.9%	0.89×	1.68
Kilmarnock under 0.5 goals	40.2%	40.5%	33.1%	1.23×	2.47
Kilmarnock over 1.5 goals	23.2%	23.8%	36.8%	0.65×	4.21
Kilmarnock over 2.5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	14.5%	0.53×	13.08
Kilmarnock over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	3.7%	0.67×	39.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 1st half	69.5%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 1st half	30.5%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.68

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock scores equally in both	48.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Kilmarnock scores more in 2nd half	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Kilmarnock scores more in 1st half	19.4%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (away no bet)	79.3%	73.5%	66.3%	1.11×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	20.7%	26.5%	33.7%	0.78×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock even goals	58.1%	56.9%	57.6%	0.99×	1.76
Kilmarnock odd goals	41.9%	43.1%	42.4%	1.02×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Motherwell to score 2+ in a row	59.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	33.2%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Motherwell to score 3+ in a row	30.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.47
Kilmarnock to score 2+ in a row	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Kilmarnock to score 3+ in a row	2.7%	2.5%	—	—	39.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell corners (+3.5)	90.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Motherwell corners (+2.5)	84.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Kilmarnock corners (+3.5)	79.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Motherwell corners (+1.5)	76.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Kilmarnock corners (+2.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Kilmarnock corners (+1.5)	58.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Motherwell corners (-1.5)	41.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Motherwell corners (-2.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Kilmarnock corners (-1.5)	23.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Motherwell corners (-3.5)	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Kilmarnock corners (-2.5)	15.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Kilmarnock corners (-3.5)	9.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	18.7%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	81.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	36.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	26.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	12.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.7%	11.5%	8.7%	1.32×	8.72
1-0	9.4%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
1-1	8.4%	7.4%	9.3%	0.80×	13.51
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
Any other score	8.5%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.51
3-0	8.2%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
3-1	7.4%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
0-0	4.0%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.30
0-1	3.8%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.30
0-2	1.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.15×	58.32
1-2	3.9%	1.7%	8.9%	0.19×	58.30
1-3	1.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.29
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.15×	58.32
4-0	4.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.29
4-1	4.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.19×	58.30
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.30×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (2nd half DNB)	78.1%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Kilmarnock (2nd half DNB)	21.9%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell leading at HT (DNB)	79.0%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Kilmarnock leading at HT (DNB)	21.0%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell or draw (1X)	86.5%	86.5%	69.0%	1.25×	1.16
Motherwell or Kilmarnock (12)	82.1%	80.6%	76.7%	1.05×	1.24
Kilmarnock or draw (X2)	31.4%	35.2%	54.1%	0.65×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell or draw at HT	86.6%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Motherwell or Kilmarnock at HT	64.0%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Kilmarnock or draw at HT	49.5%	51.5%	—	—	1.94

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell or draw (1UP)	86.5%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Kilmarnock or draw (1UP)	31.5%	39.0%	—	—	2.56

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell or draw in 2nd half	84.4%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Motherwell or Kilmarnock in 2nd half	71.1%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Kilmarnock or draw in 2nd half	44.5%	39.1%	—	—	2.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.7%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.3%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (DNB)	83.5%	80.4%	59.7%	1.35×	1.24
Kilmarnock (DNB)	16.5%	19.6%	40.3%	0.49×	5.11

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to score first	68.8%	69.2%	—	—	1.44
Kilmarnock to score first	27.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	4.0%	4.4%	—	—	22.82

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.7%	51.3%	52.3%	0.98×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.3%	48.7%	47.7%	1.02×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.3%	44.3%	43.2%	1.03×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	29.5%	33.3%	34.1%	0.98×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	16.8%	21.5%	13.8%	1.55×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	9.3%	0.89×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.5%	82.7%	83.9%	0.99×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.5%	17.3%	16.1%	1.08×	5.77

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.3%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.7%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.8%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	5.9%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.9%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.1%	16.7%	—	—	6.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	37.5%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.0%	42.2%	45.7%	0.92×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.4%	35.0%	31.2%	1.12×	2.86
0-1 goals	17.2%	20.2%	21.7%	0.93×	4.94
7+ goals	4.5%	1.8%	1.9%	0.99×	54.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock to score exactly 0	40.2%	37.3%	33.1%	1.13×	2.68
Kilmarnock to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Kilmarnock to score exactly 2	16.7%	19.5%	22.5%	0.87×	5.12
Kilmarnock to score 3+	6.5%	8.5%	14.5%	0.59×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to score 3+	40.2%	35.1%	23.8%	1.48×	2.85
Motherwell to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.5%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Motherwell to score exactly 1	23.1%	23.3%	31.2%	0.75×	4.29
Motherwell to score exactly 0	10.1%	14.3%	20.5%	0.70×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell leading at HT	50.5%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Draw at HT	36.0%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
Kilmarnock leading at HT	13.4%	11.7%	—	—	8.53

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell -1: 1	45.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Motherwell -1: 2	31.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Motherwell -1: X	23.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (0:1)	45.4%	46.0%	26.4%	1.74×	2.17
Kilmarnock (0:1)	31.4%	30.1%	54.1%	0.56×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	23.2%	24.2%	19.6%	1.23×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock (0:2)	54.6%	58.3%	73.6%	0.79×	1.71
Motherwell (0:2)	25.0%	23.8%	12.2%	1.96×	4.20
Draw (0:2)	20.4%	20.2%	14.5%	1.40×	4.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock (0:3)	75.0%	77.9%	87.8%	0.89×	1.28
Draw (0:3)	13.4%	9.9%	6.8%	1.45×	10.09
Motherwell (0:3)	11.6%	9.9%	5.6%	1.77×	10.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock (0:4)	88.4%	92.0%	94.4%	0.97×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.0%	4.6%	4.8%	0.98×	21.56
Motherwell (0:4)	4.6%	1.2%	1.0%	1.19×	81.40

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (1:0)	86.5%	86.1%	69.0%	1.25×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.3%	6.9%	17.8%	0.39×	14.46
Kilmarnock (1:0)	4.3%	3.3%	13.4%	0.24×	30.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell (2:0)	95.7%	96.8%	86.6%	1.12×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.2%	2.3%	7.6%	0.30×	43.73
Kilmarnock (2:0)	1.1%	2.3%	6.0%	0.38×	43.86

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.1%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.5%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to concede	59.8%	60.7%	66.9%	0.91×	1.65
Motherwell clean sheet	40.2%	39.3%	33.1%	1.19×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell clean sheet in 1st half	69.5%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Motherwell to concede in 1st half	30.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell clean sheet in 2nd half	57.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Motherwell to concede in 2nd half	42.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell over 2.5 corners	80.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Motherwell under 6.5 corners	77.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Motherwell under 5.5 corners	65.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Motherwell over 3.5 corners	65.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Motherwell under 4.5 corners	51.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Motherwell over 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Motherwell under 3.5 corners	34.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Motherwell over 5.5 corners	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Motherwell over 6.5 corners	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Motherwell under 2.5 corners	19.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell over 0.5 goals	89.9%	87.3%	79.5%	1.10×	1.15
Motherwell under 3.5 goals	80.1%	82.2%	92.1%	0.89×	1.22
Motherwell over 1.5 goals	66.8%	67.9%	48.6%	1.40×	1.47
Motherwell under 2.5 goals	59.8%	58.7%	76.2%	0.77×	1.71
Motherwell over 2.5 goals	40.2%	41.3%	23.8%	1.74×	2.42
Motherwell under 1.5 goals	33.2%	32.1%	51.4%	0.62×	3.12
Motherwell over 3.5 goals	19.9%	17.8%	7.9%	2.27×	5.61
Motherwell under 0.5 goals	10.1%	12.7%	20.5%	0.62×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell under 1.5 in 1st half	74.1%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Motherwell over 0.5 in 1st half	62.7%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Motherwell under 0.5 in 1st half	37.3%	35.5%	—	—	2.81
Motherwell over 1.5 in 1st half	25.9%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell scores more in 2nd half	43.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Motherwell scores more in 1st half	28.1%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
Motherwell scores equally in both	27.9%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.0%	56.4%	43.0%	1.31×	1.77
Kilmarnock (home no bet)	43.0%	43.6%	57.0%	0.76×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell even goals	50.5%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Motherwell odd goals	49.5%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
HT 1-0	25.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
HT 2-0	12.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 0-1	9.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 1-1	9.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
Any other HT score	8.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 0-2	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell at HT / Motherwell at FT	45.3%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Draw at HT / Motherwell at FT	20.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Kilmarnock at HT / Kilmarnock at FT	6.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Draw at HT / Kilmarnock at FT	5.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.53
Motherwell at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Kilmarnock at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Kilmarnock at HT / Motherwell at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Motherwell at HT / Kilmarnock at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.98

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to score last	68.7%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Kilmarnock to score last	27.3%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	4.0%	4.4%	—	—	22.82

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Motherwell to lead by 1 at any time	79.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.9%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Motherwell to lead by 2 at any time	52.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Kilmarnock to lead by 1 at any time	31.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	30.1%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Motherwell to lead by 3 at any time	28.4%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Kilmarnock to lead by 2 at any time	8.2%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Kilmarnock to lead by 3 at any time	1.8%	1.6%	—	—	63.49

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell most corners	53.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Kilmarnock most corners	34.1%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
Corners level	12.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	87.0%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.4%	78.7%	76.7%	1.03×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.0%	72.3%	79.8%	0.91×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.3%	71.1%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.3%	63.8%	0.99×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.7%	59.1%	55.2%	1.07×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.2%	59.1%	61.6%	0.96×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.6%	53.2%	49.6%	1.07×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.0%	43.6%	45.7%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.1%	43.6%	42.4%	1.03×	2.29
4-6 goals	35.4%	39.2%	31.2%	1.26×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.9%	35.2%	37.6%	0.94×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.3%	30.2%	25.6%	1.18×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.6%	18.8%	13.0%	1.45×	5.31
7+ goals	4.5%	2.6%	1.9%	1.38×	39.07

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell never behind	64.6%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Kilmarnock never behind	16.8%	18.3%	—	—	5.48

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.2%	0.99×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.8%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.4%	87.6%	92.6%	0.95×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.8%	82.3%	78.3%	1.05×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.0%	77.3%	85.3%	0.91×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.1%	61.7%	56.8%	1.09×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.1%	61.7%	67.1%	0.92×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.9%	38.3%	32.9%	1.17×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.9%	38.3%	43.2%	0.89×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	22.0%	22.7%	14.7%	1.55×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.7%	21.7%	0.82×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.6%	12.4%	7.4%	1.67×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.0%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.81

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.3%	97.2%	98.0%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.1%	86.7%	92.0%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.4%	75.9%	72.4%	1.05×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.2%	72.4%	82.1%	0.88×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.3%	51.9%	43.2%	1.20×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.7%	48.1%	56.8%	0.85×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.8%	27.6%	17.9%	1.54×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.6%	24.1%	27.6%	0.87×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.9%	13.3%	8.0%	1.65×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.7%	2.8%	2.0%	1.43×	35.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.5%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.5%	14.2%	—	—	7.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.4%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.6%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.3%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.7%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.4%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock not to score in both halves	87.1%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Motherwell not to score in both halves	54.2%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Motherwell to score in both halves	45.8%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Kilmarnock to score in both halves	12.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.94

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.7%	53.8%	52.3%	1.03×	1.86
Only Motherwell scores	36.3%	39.9%	27.5%	1.45×	2.51
Only Kilmarnock scores	6.1%	7.1%	14.9%	0.48×	14.02
Neither team scores	4.0%	4.6%	5.8%	0.80×	21.56

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	24.2%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.7%	22.6%	21.7%	1.04×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.8%	17.5%	18.4%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.2%	12.1%	16.1%	0.75×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.4%	12.1%	7.4%	1.63×	8.26
6 or more goals	10.6%	12.1%	7.4%	1.63×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	4.0%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.34

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	25.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	15.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.3%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
1 goal in 2nd half	29.1%	29.1%	—	—	3.43
No goals in 2nd half	15.6%	16.7%	—	—	6.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock not to win both halves	97.9%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Motherwell not to win both halves	72.0%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Motherwell to win both halves	28.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Kilmarnock to win both halves	2.1%	2.8%	—	—	36.35

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell to win either half	78.0%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Kilmarnock to win neither half	73.1%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Kilmarnock to win either half	26.9%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Motherwell to win neither half	22.0%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kilmarnock not to win to nil	93.9%	92.1%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Motherwell not to win to nil	63.7%	66.6%	72.5%	0.92×	1.50
Motherwell to win to nil	36.3%	33.4%	27.5%	1.22×	2.99
Kilmarnock to win to nil	6.1%	7.9%	14.9%	0.53×	12.68

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Motherwell by 3+	25.0%	27.9%	12.2%	2.29×	3.59
Motherwell by 1	23.2%	24.1%	19.6%	1.23×	4.15
Motherwell by 2	20.4%	24.1%	14.5%	1.67×	4.15
Draw	17.9%	17.0%	23.3%	0.73×	5.87
Kilmarnock by 1	9.3%	7.2%	17.8%	0.40×	13.90
Kilmarnock by 2	3.2%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	36.87
Kilmarnock by 3+	1.1%	2.7%	6.0%	0.45×	36.94