Mushuc Runa v Leones — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Mushuc Runa

20:00

Leones

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 16h before kick-off

Mushuc Runa win

44.5%

model 43.5%

Draw

27.7%

model 28.4%

Leones win

27.7%

model 28.2%

452828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 14.9%
1-1 12.8%
0-0 11.5%
0-1 11.3%
2-0 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	35.8%	Under 2.5	64.2%
BTTS yes	41.6%	BTTS no	58.4%
Mushuc Runa 1+	70.3%	Mushuc Runa 2+	34.2%
Leones 1+	59.9%	Leones 2+	23.2%

Expected goals 1.21 – 0.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 70%

73.6% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 2590 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Leones not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mushuc Runa have an estimated 44.5% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 27.7% for Leones. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.21 for Mushuc Runa and 0.91 for Leones.

Why Mushuc Runa

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. A combined 2.13 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Leones can win

Leones carry the stronger rating, 1541 Elo against 1508.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Mushuc Runa, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Leones, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mushuc Runa: 52% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Leones: 37% possession, 8.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Mushuc Runa are the model's most likely outcome at 44.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.9%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432828	1.21–0.91	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402832	1.19–1.01	1-0 14%	38%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa to win	40.4%	43.0%	44.2%	0.97×	2.33
Leones to win	31.5%	30.3%	29.6%	1.03×	3.30
Draw	28.0%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa & not both score	25.7%	25.2%	25.5%	0.99×	3.98
Leones & not both score	19.8%	17.9%	18.0%	0.99×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	17.5%	17.9%	18.6%	0.96×	5.58
Mushuc Runa & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	19.0%	0.70×	7.54
Leones & both teams score	11.7%	13.3%	11.7%	1.13×	7.55
Draw & not both score	10.6%	13.3%	8.0%	1.66×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa & under 3.5	32.4%	30.9%	33.3%	0.93×	3.24
Mushuc Runa & over 1.5	26.8%	26.0%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Leones & under 3.5	26.0%	26.0%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	23.4%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	23.4%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
Mushuc Runa & under 2.5	21.4%	21.7%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Leones & over 1.5	19.9%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Mushuc Runa & over 2.5	19.0%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Leones & under 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Mushuc Runa & under 1.5	13.6%	12.9%	12.3%	1.05×	7.77
Leones & over 2.5	14.2%	12.9%	14.7%	0.88×	7.77
Leones & under 1.5	11.6%	12.9%	10.6%	1.21×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.0%	1.61×	7.77
Mushuc Runa & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	11.2%	0.71×	12.70
Leones & over 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	7.4%	1.06×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.6%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa (1UP)	53.9%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Leones (1UP)	45.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa (2UP)	40.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Leones (2UP)	31.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.9%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Mushuc Runa to win 2nd half	32.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Leones to win 2nd half	27.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones (+2.5)	94.3%	92.1%	92.2%	1.00×	1.09
Leones (+1.5)	82.9%	82.4%	80.5%	1.02×	1.21
Mushuc Runa (+0.5)	68.5%	68.7%	70.4%	0.98×	1.46
Leones (+0.5)	59.6%	57.0%	55.8%	1.02×	1.75
Mushuc Runa (-0.5)	40.4%	43.0%	44.2%	0.97×	2.33
Leones (-0.5)	31.5%	31.3%	29.6%	1.06×	3.20
Mushuc Runa (-1.5)	17.1%	17.6%	19.5%	0.90×	5.69
Mushuc Runa (-2.5)	5.7%	7.9%	7.8%	1.01×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones to concede	69.6%	72.6%	74.2%	0.98×	1.38
Leones clean sheet	30.4%	27.4%	25.8%	1.06×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones clean sheet in 1st half	59.9%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Leones to concede in 1st half	40.1%	41.4%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones under 6.5 corners	93.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Leones under 5.5 corners	87.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Leones under 4.5 corners	77.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Leones under 3.5 corners	62.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Leones over 2.5 corners	58.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Leones under 2.5 corners	42.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Leones over 3.5 corners	38.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Leones over 4.5 corners	22.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Leones over 5.5 corners	12.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Leones over 6.5 corners	6.1%	9.9%	—	—	10.07

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.5%	96.8%	1.01×	1.03
Leones under 2.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Leones under 1.5 goals	73.1%	72.0%	73.8%	0.98×	1.39
Leones over 0.5 goals	63.7%	63.0%	66.7%	0.94×	1.59
Leones under 0.5 goals	36.3%	37.0%	33.3%	1.11×	2.70
Leones over 1.5 goals	26.9%	28.0%	26.2%	1.07×	3.57
Leones over 2.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.03
Leones over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.5%	3.2%	0.78×	40.78

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones under 1.5 in 1st half	93.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Leones under 0.5 in 1st half	66.7%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Leones over 0.5 in 1st half	33.3%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Leones over 1.5 in 1st half	6.3%	5.8%	—	—	17.31

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa (away no bet)	59.1%	57.5%	62.6%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.9%	42.5%	37.4%	1.14×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones even goals	56.6%	56.9%	51.7%	1.10×	1.76
Leones odd goals	43.4%	43.1%	48.3%	0.89×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.4%	92.4%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.09

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	48.6%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	51.4%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	44.8%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Mushuc Runa to score 2+ in a row	27.3%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Leones to score 2+ in a row	21.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Mushuc Runa to score 3+ in a row	8.1%	5.7%	—	—	17.64
Leones to score 3+ in a row	5.2%	5.6%	—	—	17.87

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa corners (+3.5)	96.6%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Mushuc Runa corners (+2.5)	93.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Mushuc Runa corners (+1.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Leones corners (+3.5)	61.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Mushuc Runa corners (-1.5)	61.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Leones corners (+2.5)	50.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Mushuc Runa corners (-2.5)	49.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Mushuc Runa corners (-3.5)	38.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Leones corners (+1.5)	38.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Leones corners (-1.5)	11.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
Leones corners (-2.5)	6.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Leones corners (-3.5)	3.4%	4.2%	—	—	23.56

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	22.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.6%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.8%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	30.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.6%	11.5%	12.3%	0.93×	8.73
1-1	12.9%	11.5%	14.3%	0.80×	8.73
0-1	11.6%	11.5%	10.6%	1.08×	8.73
0-0	10.6%	11.5%	8.0%	1.43×	8.73
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.48
2-0	7.8%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.48
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
0-2	5.7%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.48
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.48
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
1-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.48
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.47
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.47
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.48
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.48
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.60×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
Any other score	1.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa leading at HT (DNB)	57.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Leones leading at HT (DNB)	42.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa or Leones (12)	72.0%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Mushuc Runa or draw (1X)	68.5%	69.7%	70.4%	0.99×	1.44
Leones or draw (X2)	59.6%	57.0%	55.8%	1.02×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa or draw at HT	77.9%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Leones or draw at HT	70.6%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Mushuc Runa or Leones at HT	51.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa or draw (1UP)	68.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Leones or draw (1UP)	59.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa or draw in 2nd half	72.1%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Leones or draw in 2nd half	67.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Mushuc Runa or Leones in 2nd half	60.1%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.6%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	30.4%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa (DNB)	56.2%	58.2%	60.0%	0.97×	1.72
Leones (DNB)	43.8%	41.8%	40.1%	1.04×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa to score first	48.3%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Leones to score first	41.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	10.6%	9.6%	—	—	10.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.1%	54.9%	51.1%	1.07×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.9%	45.1%	48.9%	0.92×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	49.3%	44.3%	42.6%	1.04×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	31.0%	34.3%	34.8%	0.99×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	14.3%	0.86×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	6.8%	8.4%	8.7%	0.96×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.0%	89.1%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.0%	10.9%	10.0%	1.09×	9.17

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.7%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.3%	24.7%	—	—	4.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Both score 2nd half only	19.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Both score 1st half only	10.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	3.0%	5.0%	—	—	20.11

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.7%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	13.3%	14.0%	—	—	7.13

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	56.7%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	43.3%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.4%	47.0%	1.01×	2.11
0-1 goals	35.8%	35.0%	30.5%	1.15×	2.85
4-6 goals	17.4%	20.2%	21.4%	0.94×	4.96
7+ goals	0.8%	1.8%	1.5%	1.23×	54.73

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	40.7%	0.88×	2.78
Leones to score exactly 0	36.3%	36.0%	33.3%	1.08×	2.78
Leones to score exactly 2	18.7%	19.6%	16.2%	1.21×	5.11
Leones to score 3+	8.3%	8.5%	10.2%	0.83×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.6%	35.1%	1.01×	2.81
Mushuc Runa to score exactly 0	30.4%	32.6%	25.8%	1.26×	3.06
Mushuc Runa to score exactly 2	21.6%	23.2%	24.5%	0.95×	4.30
Mushuc Runa to score 3+	11.9%	14.3%	14.9%	0.96×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Mushuc Runa leading at HT	29.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.88
Leones leading at HT	22.1%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa -1: 2	59.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Mushuc Runa -1: X	23.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Mushuc Runa -1: 1	17.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones (0:1)	59.6%	55.9%	55.8%	1.00×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.3%	24.9%	0.97×	4.12
Mushuc Runa (0:1)	17.1%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones (0:2)	82.9%	82.8%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.0%	11.9%	0.92×	9.13
Mushuc Runa (0:2)	5.7%	7.7%	7.8%	0.99×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones (0:3)	94.3%	92.6%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	4.6%	0.51×	42.08
Mushuc Runa (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	96.7%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.2%	0.54×	83.55
Mushuc Runa (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.92×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa (1:0)	68.5%	70.0%	70.4%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.9%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Leones (1:0)	11.7%	12.8%	11.5%	1.11×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa (2:0)	88.4%	88.4%	88.5%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.3%	6.5%	7.4%	0.87×	15.48
Leones (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	44.16

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa to concede	63.7%	63.4%	66.7%	0.95×	1.58
Mushuc Runa clean sheet	36.3%	36.6%	33.3%	1.10×	2.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa clean sheet in 1st half	66.7%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Mushuc Runa to concede in 1st half	33.3%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa over 2.5 corners	88.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Mushuc Runa over 3.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Mushuc Runa under 6.5 corners	63.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Mushuc Runa over 4.5 corners	63.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Mushuc Runa under 5.5 corners	50.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Mushuc Runa over 5.5 corners	49.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Mushuc Runa under 4.5 corners	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mushuc Runa over 6.5 corners	36.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mushuc Runa under 3.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Mushuc Runa under 2.5 corners	11.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa under 3.5 goals	96.7%	96.4%	94.6%	1.02×	1.04
Mushuc Runa under 2.5 goals	88.1%	87.3%	85.1%	1.03×	1.15
Mushuc Runa over 0.5 goals	69.6%	67.9%	74.2%	0.92×	1.47
Mushuc Runa under 1.5 goals	66.6%	67.9%	60.8%	1.12×	1.47
Mushuc Runa over 1.5 goals	33.4%	32.1%	39.2%	0.82×	3.11
Mushuc Runa under 0.5 goals	30.4%	32.1%	25.8%	1.24×	3.11
Mushuc Runa over 2.5 goals	11.9%	12.7%	14.9%	0.86×	7.85
Mushuc Runa over 3.5 goals	3.3%	3.6%	5.4%	0.68×	27.47

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa under 1.5 in 1st half	90.6%	95.2%	—	—	1.05
Mushuc Runa under 0.5 in 1st half	59.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Mushuc Runa over 0.5 in 1st half	40.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Mushuc Runa over 1.5 in 1st half	9.4%	4.8%	—	—	21.01

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones (home no bet)	53.0%	51.6%	52.8%	0.98×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.0%	48.4%	47.2%	1.03×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa even goals	54.6%	50.6%	54.3%	0.93×	1.97
Mushuc Runa odd goals	45.4%	49.4%	45.7%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	39.9%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
HT 1-0	20.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
HT 0-1	16.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	8.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-0	5.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 0-2	3.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
Any other HT score	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.58

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa at HT / Mushuc Runa at FT	22.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Leones at HT / Leones at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Mushuc Runa at FT	15.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Leones at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Mushuc Runa at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Leones at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Mushuc Runa at HT / Leones at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Leones at HT / Mushuc Runa at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa to score last	48.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Leones to score last	41.1%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	10.6%	9.0%	—	—	11.12

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.4%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Mushuc Runa to lead by 1 at any time	53.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Leones to lead by 1 at any time	45.9%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	37.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Mushuc Runa to lead by 2 at any time	21.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Leones to lead by 2 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Mushuc Runa to lead by 3 at any time	6.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.09
Leones to lead by 3 at any time	4.3%	1.7%	—	—	60.14

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa most corners	72.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Leones most corners	18.2%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	9.3%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.9%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.1%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.3%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	63.5%	63.4%	68.2%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	61.7%	63.4%	66.5%	0.95×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.9%	59.2%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
1-2 goals	51.6%	53.2%	48.9%	1.09×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.7%	47.0%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	37.1%	39.1%	42.0%	0.93×	2.55
3-5 goals	35.3%	39.1%	40.3%	0.97×	2.56
3-4 goals	30.6%	35.4%	33.1%	1.07×	2.83
4-6 goals	17.4%	18.6%	21.4%	0.87×	5.37
4-5 goals	15.6%	18.6%	19.7%	0.95×	5.37
5-6 goals	6.5%	8.7%	9.1%	0.96×	11.45
7+ goals	0.8%	2.5%	1.5%	1.71×	39.30

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mushuc Runa never behind	43.5%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Leones never behind	35.5%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	51.5%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.5%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.5%	95.5%	96.8%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	89.6%	1.03×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.4%	87.7%	92.0%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	81.8%	82.4%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	64.2%	61.8%	69.5%	0.89×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	62.1%	61.8%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	37.9%	38.2%	43.3%	0.88×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	35.8%	38.2%	30.5%	1.25×	2.62
Over 3.5 goals	18.2%	17.6%	22.7%	0.78×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	10.4%	0.74×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	2.5%	4.5%	3.2%	1.42×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.2%	97.2%	98.5%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.4%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.8%	92.5%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	77.4%	75.9%	71.4%	1.06×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	51.4%	51.8%	58.7%	0.88×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	48.6%	48.2%	41.3%	1.17×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	22.6%	24.1%	28.6%	0.84×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	8.2%	7.5%	11.9%	0.64×	13.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.6%	2.8%	3.4%	0.81×	36.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.8%	2.8%	1.5%	1.83×	36.20

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.4%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	76.7%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	60.1%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	39.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.3%	21.3%	—	—	4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.6%	7.2%	—	—	13.83

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.0%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.6%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.4%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.0%	14.7%	—	—	6.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones not to score in both halves	84.8%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Mushuc Runa not to score in both halves	80.2%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Mushuc Runa to score in both halves	19.8%	15.8%	—	—	6.33
Leones to score in both halves	15.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.9%	46.6%	48.9%	0.95×	2.15
Only Mushuc Runa scores	25.7%	26.1%	25.5%	1.02×	3.83
Only Leones scores	19.8%	16.1%	18.0%	0.89×	6.21
Neither team scores	10.6%	10.9%	8.0%	1.37×	9.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	25.0%	26.4%	0.95×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	25.2%	25.0%	22.7%	1.10×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	19.7%	17.4%	20.8%	0.84×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	10.9%	12.1%	12.5%	0.97×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	10.6%	12.1%	8.0%	1.51×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	4.8%	4.4%	7.4%	0.59×	22.64
6 or more goals	2.5%	4.4%	3.2%	1.40×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	36.7%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
1 goal in 2nd half	35.8%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
No goals in 2nd half	27.4%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones not to win both halves	93.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Mushuc Runa not to win both halves	90.6%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Mushuc Runa to win both halves	9.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.39
Leones to win both halves	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.62

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones to win neither half	56.2%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Mushuc Runa to win either half	52.2%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Mushuc Runa to win neither half	47.8%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Leones to win either half	43.8%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leones not to win to nil	80.2%	83.0%	82.0%	1.01×	1.21
Mushuc Runa not to win to nil	74.3%	75.3%	74.5%	1.01×	1.33
Mushuc Runa to win to nil	25.7%	24.7%	25.5%	0.97×	4.05
Leones to win to nil	19.8%	17.0%	18.0%	0.94×	5.88

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.0%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Mushuc Runa by 1	23.3%	24.2%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Leones by 1	19.9%	16.9%	18.2%	0.93×	5.91
Mushuc Runa by 2	11.5%	11.8%	11.9%	0.99×	8.48
Leones by 2	8.3%	7.3%	7.4%	0.98×	13.78
Mushuc Runa by 3+	5.7%	7.3%	7.8%	0.93×	13.79
Leones by 3+	3.3%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	36.98