MVV Maastricht v Almere City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 11 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627
NED-Eerste Divisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyMVV Maastricht win
22.4%
model 23.7%
Draw
22.4%
model 21.0%
Almere City win
55.2%
model 55.3%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,262 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-2 9.7%
- 1-1 9.5%
- 0-1 8.3%
- 0-2 7.9%
- 1-3 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 62.4% | Under 2.5 | 37.6% |
| BTTS yes | 60.7% | BTTS no | 39.3% |
| MVV Maastricht 1+ | 70.7% | MVV Maastricht 2+ | 34.8% |
| Almere City 1+ | 86.3% | Almere City 2+ | 59.1% |
Expected goals 1.23 – 1.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
57/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Almere City (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 33%
58.3% fair odds 1.71
strong signal · 11329 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Almere City under 1.5 in 1st half
Away goals O/U 1HT
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 363 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Almere City carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1410.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Almere City have an estimated 55.2% win probability, against 22.4% for MVV Maastricht and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for MVV Maastricht and 1.99 for Almere City.
Why MVV Maastricht
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why Almere City can win
Almere City carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1410. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for MVV Maastricht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Almere City, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
MVV Maastricht: 52% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Almere City: 44% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
Almere City are the model's most likely outcome at 55.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.7%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.23–1.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.19–2.10 | 1-2 10% | 64% | 61% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–2.09 | 1-2 10% | 63% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to win | 58.5% | 53.7% | 33.4% | 1.61× | 1.86 |
| MVV Maastricht to win | 21.3% | 24.6% | 44.4% | 0.55× | 4.07 |
| Draw | 20.1% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 1.10× | 4.07 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City & both teams score | 31.5% | 29.2% | 19.6% | 1.49× | 3.42 |
| Almere City & not both score | 27.0% | 25.5% | 13.9% | 1.83× | 3.93 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.7% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 1.02× | 5.55 |
| MVV Maastricht & both teams score | 12.5% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 0.61× | 7.55 |
| MVV Maastricht & not both score | 8.8% | 8.4% | 22.8% | 0.37× | 11.96 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.01× | 20.37 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City & over 1.5 | 50.4% | 48.8% | 27.2% | 1.80× | 2.05 |
| Almere City & over 2.5 | 42.2% | 40.0% | 23.6% | 1.70× | 2.50 |
| Almere City & under 3.5 | 31.9% | 31.0% | 19.7% | 1.57× | 3.22 |
| Almere City & over 3.5 | 26.7% | 25.9% | 13.8% | 1.88× | 3.86 |
| MVV Maastricht & over 1.5 | 16.6% | 18.0% | 36.8% | 0.49× | 5.57 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.7% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 1.02× | 5.57 |
| Almere City & under 2.5 | 16.3% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 1.81× | 5.57 |
| MVV Maastricht & over 2.5 | 13.9% | 12.9% | 30.6% | 0.42× | 7.78 |
| MVV Maastricht & under 3.5 | 14.0% | 12.9% | 25.8% | 0.50× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 12.4% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 0.90× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 12.4% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 0.90× | 7.78 |
| MVV Maastricht & under 2.5 | 7.4% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 0.57× | 12.57 |
| MVV Maastricht & over 3.5 | 7.3% | 8.0% | 18.7% | 0.42× | 12.57 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 0.97× | 12.57 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 0.97× | 12.57 |
| Almere City & under 1.5 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.26× | 12.57 |
| MVV Maastricht & under 1.5 | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 0.63× | 20.57 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.00× | 20.58 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (1UP) | 72.8% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| MVV Maastricht (1UP) | 41.3% | 39.2% | — | — | 2.55 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (2UP) | 58.5% | 55.3% | — | — | 1.81 |
| MVV Maastricht (2UP) | 21.3% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to win 2nd half | 50.5% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| 2nd half drawn | 29.4% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.78 |
| MVV Maastricht to win 2nd half | 20.1% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.35 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City over 0.5 in 2nd half | 71.6% | 75.1% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Almere City under 1.5 in 2nd half | 64.1% | 59.1% | — | — | 1.69 |
| Almere City over 1.5 in 2nd half | 35.9% | 40.9% | — | — | 2.45 |
| Almere City under 0.5 in 2nd half | 28.4% | 24.9% | — | — | 4.02 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 2nd half | 85.2% | 87.7% | — | — | 1.14 |
| MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 2nd half | 50.7% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 2nd half | 49.3% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 2nd half | 14.8% | 12.3% | — | — | 8.12 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (+2.5) | 97.5% | 96.3% | 88.1% | 1.09× | 1.04 |
| Almere City (+1.5) | 91.8% | 92.1% | 75.6% | 1.22× | 1.09 |
| Almere City (+0.5) | 78.7% | 78.4% | 55.6% | 1.41× | 1.28 |
| Almere City (-0.5) | 58.5% | 57.0% | 33.4% | 1.71× | 1.76 |
| MVV Maastricht (+0.5) | 41.5% | 43.0% | 66.6% | 0.65× | 2.32 |
| MVV Maastricht (-0.5) | 21.3% | 21.6% | 44.4% | 0.49× | 4.62 |
| MVV Maastricht (-1.5) | 8.2% | 7.9% | 24.4% | 0.32× | 12.69 |
| MVV Maastricht (-2.5) | 2.5% | 3.7% | 11.9% | 0.31× | 26.89 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to concede | 69.6% | 72.4% | 81.4% | 0.89× | 1.38 |
| Almere City clean sheet | 30.4% | 27.6% | 18.6% | 1.48× | 3.63 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City clean sheet in 1st half | 59.9% | 58.6% | — | — | 1.71 |
| Almere City to concede in 1st half | 40.1% | 41.4% | — | — | 2.42 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City clean sheet in 2nd half | 50.7% | 52.7% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Almere City to concede in 2nd half | 49.3% | 47.3% | — | — | 2.12 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City over 2.5 corners | 90.4% | 89.9% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Almere City over 3.5 corners | 80.5% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Almere City over 4.5 corners | 67.7% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Almere City under 6.5 corners | 59.4% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Almere City over 5.5 corners | 53.9% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Almere City under 5.5 corners | 46.1% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Almere City over 6.5 corners | 40.6% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Almere City under 4.5 corners | 32.3% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Almere City under 3.5 corners | 19.5% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.38 |
| Almere City under 2.5 corners | 9.6% | 10.1% | — | — | 9.94 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City over 0.5 goals | 87.8% | 87.9% | 72.5% | 1.21× | 1.14 |
| Almere City under 3.5 goals | 83.9% | 81.3% | 93.1% | 0.87× | 1.23 |
| Almere City under 2.5 goals | 65.0% | 63.5% | 81.5% | 0.78× | 1.58 |
| Almere City over 1.5 goals | 62.0% | 63.5% | 41.8% | 1.52× | 1.58 |
| Almere City under 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 36.5% | 58.2% | 0.63× | 2.74 |
| Almere City over 2.5 goals | 35.0% | 36.5% | 18.5% | 1.97× | 2.74 |
| Almere City over 3.5 goals | 16.1% | 18.7% | 6.9% | 2.70× | 5.34 |
| Almere City under 0.5 goals | 12.3% | 12.1% | 27.5% | 0.44× | 8.26 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City under 1.5 in 1st half | 79.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Almere City over 0.5 in 1st half | 56.8% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Almere City under 0.5 in 1st half | 43.2% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Almere City over 1.5 in 1st half | 20.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City scores more in 2nd half | 46.1% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
| Almere City scores equally in both | 29.1% | 26.2% | — | — | 3.82 |
| Almere City scores more in 1st half | 24.8% | 22.5% | — | — | 4.45 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht (away no bet) | 51.4% | 51.3% | 66.5% | 0.77× | 1.95 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 48.6% | 48.7% | 33.5% | 1.46× | 2.05 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City even goals | 50.8% | 52.8% | 57.1% | 0.92× | 1.90 |
| Almere City odd goals | 49.2% | 47.2% | 42.9% | 1.10× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 77.4% | 82.0% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 18.0% | — | — | 5.56 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 74.1% | 67.4% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 32.6% | — | — | 3.07 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 66.8% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Almere City to score 2+ in a row | 52.9% | 51.3% | — | — | 1.95 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 29.4% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Almere City to score 3+ in a row | 24.3% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.12 |
| MVV Maastricht to score 2+ in a row | 22.7% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.13 |
| MVV Maastricht to score 3+ in a row | 5.6% | 5.6% | — | — | 17.89 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City corners (+3.5) | 91.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Almere City corners (+2.5) | 86.9% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Almere City corners (+1.5) | 80.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| MVV Maastricht corners (+3.5) | 69.2% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| MVV Maastricht corners (+2.5) | 59.4% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Almere City corners (-1.5) | 51.2% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| MVV Maastricht corners (+1.5) | 48.8% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Almere City corners (-2.5) | 40.6% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Almere City corners (-3.5) | 30.8% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.93 |
| MVV Maastricht corners (-1.5) | 19.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
| MVV Maastricht corners (-2.5) | 13.1% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
| MVV Maastricht corners (-3.5) | 8.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 37.2% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 0-8 corners | 32.0% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.8% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 77.6% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 71.6% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 68.0% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 62.8% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57.6% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 52.9% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 47.1% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 42.4% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 37.2% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 32.0% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 28.4% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 22.4% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 0.77× | 13.53 |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 0.99× | 13.52 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.53 |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.99× | 13.53 |
| 1-3 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.99× | 13.53 |
| Any other score | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 1.57× | 13.53 |
| 0-3 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 2.84× | 13.53 |
| 2-1 | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 0.92× | 13.53 |
| 2-2 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.10× | 13.53 |
| 0-0 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.36× | 57.66 |
| 0-4 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.40× | 57.66 |
| 1-0 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 7.7% | 0.23× | 57.66 |
| 1-4 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.78× | 57.66 |
| 2-0 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 6.3% | 0.27× | 57.67 |
| 2-3 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.50× | 57.66 |
| 2-4 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.16× | 57.67 |
| 3-0 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 0.42× | 57.67 |
| 3-1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.37× | 57.67 |
| 3-2 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 0.41× | 57.67 |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.08× | 57.67 |
| 3-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.40× | 57.68 |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.50× | 57.68 |
| 4-1 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 57.68 |
| 4-2 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.16× | 57.68 |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.49× | 57.68 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.97× | 57.68 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (2nd half DNB) | 71.5% | 68.1% | — | — | 1.47 |
| MVV Maastricht (2nd half DNB) | 28.5% | 31.9% | — | — | 3.14 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City leading at HT (DNB) | 66.1% | 73.2% | — | — | 1.37 |
| MVV Maastricht leading at HT (DNB) | 33.9% | 26.8% | — | — | 3.73 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht or Almere City (12) | 79.9% | 75.4% | 77.7% | 0.97× | 1.33 |
| Almere City or draw (X2) | 78.7% | 75.4% | 55.6% | 1.36× | 1.33 |
| MVV Maastricht or draw (1X) | 41.5% | 46.3% | 66.6% | 0.70× | 2.16 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City or draw at HT | 79.0% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| MVV Maastricht or Almere City at HT | 61.8% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| MVV Maastricht or draw at HT | 59.1% | 57.0% | — | — | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City or draw (1UP) | 78.7% | 84.0% | — | — | 1.19 |
| MVV Maastricht or draw (1UP) | 41.5% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.90 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City or draw in 2nd half | 79.9% | 77.0% | — | — | 1.30 |
| MVV Maastricht or Almere City in 2nd half | 70.6% | 73.5% | — | — | 1.36 |
| MVV Maastricht or draw in 2nd half | 49.5% | 48.0% | — | — | 2.09 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 56.7% | 58.0% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Neither half drawn | 43.3% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (DNB) | 73.3% | 71.1% | 42.9% | 1.66× | 1.41 |
| MVV Maastricht (DNB) | 26.7% | 28.9% | 57.1% | 0.51× | 3.47 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to score first | 61.6% | 64.4% | — | — | 1.55 |
| MVV Maastricht to score first | 34.9% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.65 |
| No goal scored | 3.4% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.39 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 56.5% | 58.7% | 0.96× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 39.2% | 43.5% | 41.3% | 1.05× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 51.7% | 47.2% | 49.3% | 0.96× | 2.12 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 27.1% | 33.3% | 28.4% | 1.17× | 3.00 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 12.1% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 0.94× | 8.16 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 0.88× | 11.94 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 79.3% | 80.0% | 79.0% | 1.01× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 20.7% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 0.96× | 4.99 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 64.8% | 66.1% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 35.2% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 50.1% | 55.8% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 27.1% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.76 |
| Both score 1st half only | 14.7% | 10.8% | — | — | 9.29 |
| Both score in both halves | 8.0% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.73 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 77.3% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 22.7% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.38 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 63.3% | 58.8% | — | — | 1.70 |
| A half without a goal | 36.7% | 41.2% | — | — | 2.43 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 42.0% | 41.9% | 41.1% | 1.02× | 2.39 |
| 4-6 goals | 36.7% | 35.0% | 37.3% | 0.94× | 2.86 |
| 0-1 goals | 16.3% | 20.2% | 18.6% | 1.09× | 4.95 |
| 7+ goals | 5.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 0.58× | 53.73 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to score 3+ | 35.0% | 35.8% | 18.5% | 1.93× | 2.80 |
| Almere City to score exactly 2 | 27.0% | 27.6% | 23.4% | 1.18× | 3.62 |
| Almere City to score exactly 1 | 25.7% | 27.6% | 30.8% | 0.90× | 3.62 |
| Almere City to score exactly 0 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 27.5% | 0.47× | 7.70 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht to score exactly 1 | 36.2% | 35.5% | 30.4% | 1.17× | 2.81 |
| MVV Maastricht to score exactly 0 | 30.4% | 32.6% | 18.6% | 1.75× | 3.07 |
| MVV Maastricht to score exactly 2 | 21.5% | 23.3% | 25.8% | 0.90× | 4.28 |
| MVV Maastricht to score 3+ | 11.8% | 14.3% | 25.4% | 0.56× | 7.00 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City leading at HT | 40.9% | 43.0% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Draw at HT | 38.2% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| MVV Maastricht leading at HT | 21.0% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.01 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City -1: 1 | 41.5% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Almere City -1: 2 | 35.6% | 37.2% | — | — | 2.69 |
| Almere City -1: X | 22.9% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (0:1) | 78.7% | 73.8% | 55.6% | 1.33× | 1.36 |
| Draw (0:1) | 13.1% | 13.9% | 20.1% | 0.69× | 7.18 |
| MVV Maastricht (0:1) | 8.2% | 9.1% | 24.4% | 0.37× | 10.96 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (0:2) | 91.8% | 91.0% | 75.6% | 1.20× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:2) | 5.7% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 0.61× | 13.02 |
| MVV Maastricht (0:2) | 2.5% | 3.8% | 11.9% | 0.32× | 26.51 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (0:3) | 97.5% | 96.6% | 88.1% | 1.10× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 1.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 0.41× | 42.38 |
| MVV Maastricht (0:3) | 0.6% | 2.4% | 6.3% | 0.37× | 42.43 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (0:4) | 99.4% | 98.1% | 93.7% | 1.05× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 0.28× | 81.77 |
| MVV Maastricht (0:4) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.58× | 81.81 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht (1:0) | 41.5% | 44.1% | 66.6% | 0.66× | 2.27 |
| Almere City (1:0) | 35.6% | 36.8% | 15.4% | 2.39× | 2.72 |
| Draw (1:0) | 22.9% | 21.7% | 18.1% | 1.20× | 4.60 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht (2:0) | 64.4% | 66.9% | 84.6% | 0.79× | 1.49 |
| Almere City (2:0) | 18.0% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 2.31× | 6.47 |
| Draw (2:0) | 17.6% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 1.76× | 6.47 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 51.4% | 50.3% | — | — | 1.99 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.9% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 21.6% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht to concede | 87.8% | 86.4% | 72.5% | 1.19× | 1.16 |
| MVV Maastricht clean sheet | 12.3% | 13.6% | 27.5% | 0.49× | 7.37 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht to concede in 1st half | 56.8% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
| MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 1st half | 43.2% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.67 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht to concede in 2nd half | 71.6% | 72.9% | — | — | 1.37 |
| MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 2nd half | 28.4% | 27.1% | — | — | 3.68 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht under 6.5 corners | 81.6% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| MVV Maastricht over 2.5 corners | 77.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| MVV Maastricht under 5.5 corners | 70.5% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| MVV Maastricht over 3.5 corners | 60.8% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| MVV Maastricht under 4.5 corners | 56.0% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| MVV Maastricht over 4.5 corners | 44.0% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| MVV Maastricht under 3.5 corners | 39.2% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| MVV Maastricht over 5.5 corners | 29.5% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| MVV Maastricht under 2.5 corners | 22.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| MVV Maastricht over 6.5 corners | 18.4% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht under 3.5 goals | 96.7% | 96.3% | 89.8% | 1.07× | 1.04 |
| MVV Maastricht under 2.5 goals | 88.2% | 87.2% | 74.6% | 1.17× | 1.15 |
| MVV Maastricht over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | 67.9% | 81.4% | 0.83× | 1.47 |
| MVV Maastricht under 1.5 goals | 66.6% | 67.9% | 48.9% | 1.39× | 1.47 |
| MVV Maastricht over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 32.1% | 51.1% | 0.63× | 3.11 |
| MVV Maastricht under 0.5 goals | 30.4% | 32.1% | 18.6% | 1.73× | 3.11 |
| MVV Maastricht over 2.5 goals | 11.8% | 12.8% | 25.4% | 0.50× | 7.82 |
| MVV Maastricht over 3.5 goals | 3.3% | 3.7% | 10.2% | 0.36× | 26.99 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 1st half | 90.6% | 95.3% | — | — | 1.05 |
| MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 1st half | 59.9% | 58.3% | — | — | 1.72 |
| MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 1st half | 40.1% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.40 |
| MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 1st half | 9.4% | 4.7% | — | — | 21.10 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht scores equally in both | 41.9% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| MVV Maastricht scores more in 2nd half | 34.3% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
| MVV Maastricht scores more in 1st half | 23.7% | 21.6% | — | — | 4.63 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (home no bet) | 74.4% | 66.4% | 59.9% | 1.11× | 1.51 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 25.6% | 33.6% | 40.1% | 0.84× | 2.98 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht even goals | 54.6% | 50.4% | 51.7% | 0.97× | 1.98 |
| MVV Maastricht odd goals | 45.4% | 49.6% | 48.3% | 1.03× | 2.02 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 25.8% | 28.8% | — | — | 3.47 |
| HT 0-1 | 21.8% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
| HT 1-0 | 13.3% | 10.9% | — | — | 9.14 |
| HT 1-1 | 11.1% | 10.9% | — | — | 9.16 |
| HT 0-2 | 9.1% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.00 |
| Any other HT score | 6.8% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.03 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.7% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.36 |
| HT 2-0 | 3.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.46 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.50 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.62 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City at HT / Almere City at FT | 35.0% | 33.0% | — | — | 3.03 |
| Draw at HT / Almere City at FT | 19.5% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| MVV Maastricht at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT | 11.9% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 10.9% | 12.6% | — | — | 7.91 |
| Draw at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT | 7.8% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.65 |
| MVV Maastricht at HT / Draw at FT | 5.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.73 |
| Almere City at HT / Draw at FT | 4.3% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.75 |
| MVV Maastricht at HT / Almere City at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.76 |
| Almere City at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT | 1.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.86 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to score last | 61.6% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| MVV Maastricht to score last | 35.0% | 33.1% | — | — | 3.02 |
| No goal scored | 3.4% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.39 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.6% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Almere City to lead by 1 at any time | 72.8% | 74.3% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 57.0% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Almere City to lead by 2 at any time | 43.5% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.55 |
| MVV Maastricht to lead by 1 at any time | 41.3% | 39.2% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 25.4% | 25.4% | — | — | 3.93 |
| Almere City to lead by 3 at any time | 21.5% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.11 |
| MVV Maastricht to lead by 2 at any time | 14.0% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.53 |
| MVV Maastricht to lead by 3 at any time | 3.9% | 1.7% | — | — | 60.53 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City most corners | 61.9% | 60.5% | — | — | 1.65 |
| MVV Maastricht most corners | 28.2% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 9.9% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.90 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.0% | 87.4% | 86.2% | 1.01× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 78.7% | 78.5% | 78.3% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 73.0% | 72.3% | 74.1% | 0.98× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.1% | 72.3% | 72.5% | 1.00× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.2% | 63.2% | 60.3% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 58.8% | 59.3% | 59.1% | 1.00× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 54.9% | 53.4% | 54.8% | 0.97× | 1.87 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.3% | 53.4% | 53.2% | 1.00× | 1.87 |
| 2-3 goals | 42.0% | 43.6% | 41.1% | 1.06× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.3% | 43.6% | 41.1% | 1.06× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 36.7% | 39.3% | 37.3% | 1.05× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 32.7% | 35.3% | 33.1% | 1.07× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 30.2% | 35.3% | 31.5% | 1.12× | 2.83 |
| 5-6 goals | 18.5% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 1.04× | 5.30 |
| 7+ goals | 5.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 0.80× | 38.85 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City never behind | 55.2% | 62.4% | — | — | 1.60 |
| MVV Maastricht never behind | 23.8% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.09 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 49.5% | 51.0% | 49.6% | 1.03× | 1.96 |
| Odd number of goals | 50.5% | 49.0% | 50.4% | 0.97× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 53.2% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 46.8% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.8% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.2% | 48.0% | — | — | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.6% | 95.4% | 95.2% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 88.4% | 87.5% | 90.9% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | 82.2% | 81.4% | 1.01× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 76.5% | 77.2% | 78.8% | 0.98× | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 62.0% | 62.2% | 1.00× | 1.61 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58.3% | 58.5% | 59.6% | 0.98× | 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 41.5% | 40.4% | 1.03× | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 38.0% | 37.8% | 1.01× | 2.63 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23.5% | 22.8% | 21.2% | 1.07× | 4.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.3% | 17.8% | 18.6% | 0.96× | 5.61 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 11.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 1.39× | 7.97 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 0.95× | 21.76 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.7% | 92.4% | 96.6% | 0.96× | 1.08 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 86.9% | 86.6% | 89.7% | 0.97× | 1.16 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 79.7% | 75.9% | 77.0% | 0.99× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 71.2% | 72.2% | 73.7% | 0.98× | 1.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 53.6% | 52.4% | 51.7% | 1.01× | 1.91 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 46.4% | 47.6% | 48.3% | 0.99× | 2.10 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 28.8% | 27.8% | 26.3% | 1.06× | 3.60 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 20.3% | 24.1% | 23.0% | 1.05× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 13.1% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 1.30× | 7.47 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.3% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 2.22× | 13.17 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 84.5% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 74.2% | 71.3% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 60.9% | 63.5% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 39.1% | 36.5% | — | — | 2.74 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 25.8% | 28.7% | — | — | 3.48 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 15.5% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.32 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 85.7% | 85.3% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 69.4% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 57.6% | 54.8% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 42.4% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.21 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 30.6% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 14.3% | 14.7% | — | — | 6.80 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht not to score in both halves | 80.3% | 84.3% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Almere City not to score in both halves | 59.3% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Almere City to score in both halves | 40.7% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| MVV Maastricht to score in both halves | 19.7% | 15.7% | — | — | 6.36 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 60.3% | 58.7% | 1.03× | 1.66 |
| Only Almere City scores | 27.0% | 26.1% | 13.9% | 1.88× | 3.83 |
| Only MVV Maastricht scores | 8.8% | 7.1% | 22.8% | 0.31× | 14.04 |
| Neither team scores | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 0.96× | 21.63 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.1% | 22.4% | 21.8% | 1.03× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 19.9% | 17.6% | 19.4% | 0.91× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.2% | 17.6% | 19.4% | 0.91× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 12.9% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 0.87× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 0.98× | 8.30 |
| 6 or more goals | 11.6% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 1.33× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 0.93× | 22.24 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 35.1% | 37.0% | — | — | 2.70 |
| No goals in 1st half | 25.8% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 23.6% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 15.5% | 15.2% | — | — | 6.59 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 57.6% | 53.4% | — | — | 1.87 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 28.1% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.36 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 14.3% | 14.5% | — | — | 6.88 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht not to win both halves | 95.8% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Almere City not to win both halves | 79.4% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Almere City to win both halves | 20.6% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| MVV Maastricht to win both halves | 4.2% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.48 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to win either half | 70.8% | 72.8% | — | — | 1.37 |
| MVV Maastricht to win neither half | 63.1% | 65.1% | — | — | 1.54 |
| MVV Maastricht to win either half | 36.9% | 34.9% | — | — | 2.86 |
| Almere City to win neither half | 29.2% | 27.2% | — | — | 3.67 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV Maastricht not to win to nil | 91.2% | 92.1% | 77.2% | 1.19× | 1.09 |
| Almere City not to win to nil | 73.0% | 75.2% | 86.1% | 0.87× | 1.33 |
| Almere City to win to nil | 27.0% | 24.8% | 13.9% | 1.79× | 4.03 |
| MVV Maastricht to win to nil | 8.8% | 7.9% | 22.8% | 0.35× | 12.62 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City by 1 | 22.9% | 24.2% | 18.1% | 1.33× | 4.14 |
| Draw | 20.1% | 24.2% | 22.3% | 1.08× | 4.14 |
| Almere City by 3+ | 18.0% | 16.9% | 6.7% | 2.52× | 5.92 |
| Almere City by 2 | 17.6% | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92× | 5.92 |
| MVV Maastricht by 1 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 20.1% | 0.58× | 8.53 |
| MVV Maastricht by 2 | 5.7% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 0.57× | 13.77 |
| MVV Maastricht by 3+ | 2.5% | 2.8% | 11.9% | 0.24× | 35.61 |
Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run
python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.