MVV Maastricht v FC Dordrecht — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 December 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

MVV Maastricht

19:00 UTC

FC Dordrecht

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 992h before kick-off

MVV Maastricht win

38.3%

model 35.9%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.8%

FC Dordrecht win

38.5%

model 39.2%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
0-1 9.6%
1-0 9.1%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.2%	Under 2.5	48.8%
BTTS yes	54.9%	BTTS no	45.1%
MVV Maastricht 1+	73.5%	MVV Maastricht 2+	38.3%
FC Dordrecht 1+	75.3%	FC Dordrecht 2+	40.7%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

59/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Under 3.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 59%

71.9% fair odds 1.39

strong signal · 1675 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

FC Dordrecht (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 76%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out FC Dordrecht.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Dordrecht have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for MVV Maastricht and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for MVV Maastricht and 1.40 for FC Dordrecht.

Why MVV Maastricht

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.33 to 1.40. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why FC Dordrecht can win

Nothing in the data singles out FC Dordrecht.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for MVV Maastricht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Dordrecht, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

MVV Maastricht: 53% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Dordrecht: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Dordrecht are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362539	1.33–1.40	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332542	1.20–1.39	1-1 12%	48%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to win	41.6%	42.9%	33.5%	1.28×	2.33
MVV Maastricht to win	32.9%	30.4%	44.5%	0.68×	3.29
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	22.1%	1.26×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht & not both score	23.0%	21.8%	14.0%	1.56×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
FC Dordrecht & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
MVV Maastricht & not both score	17.9%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.57
MVV Maastricht & both teams score	15.0%	18.0%	22.0%	0.82×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.1%	8.3%	4.8%	1.74×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht & over 1.5	30.8%	30.7%	27.4%	1.12×	3.25
FC Dordrecht & under 3.5	30.1%	30.7%	19.8%	1.55×	3.25
MVV Maastricht & under 3.5	24.6%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.63
MVV Maastricht & over 1.5	23.5%	21.6%	37.0%	0.58×	4.63
FC Dordrecht & over 2.5	23.5%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.56
MVV Maastricht & over 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	30.8%	0.58×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
FC Dordrecht & under 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	10.0%	1.81×	5.56
MVV Maastricht & under 2.5	14.9%	12.8%	13.8%	0.93×	7.79
FC Dordrecht & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
FC Dordrecht & under 1.5	10.8%	12.8%	6.3%	2.05×	7.79
MVV Maastricht & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
MVV Maastricht & over 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	18.9%	0.42×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	4.8%	1.65×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (1UP)	57.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
MVV Maastricht (1UP)	49.4%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (2UP)	41.6%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
MVV Maastricht (2UP)	32.9%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to win 2nd half	36.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
2nd half drawn	36.0%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
MVV Maastricht to win 2nd half	27.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.7%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.3%	20.7%	—	—	4.84

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (+2.5)	95.6%	96.3%	88.2%	1.09×	1.04
FC Dordrecht (+1.5)	86.5%	88.5%	75.6%	1.17×	1.13
FC Dordrecht (+0.5)	67.1%	68.7%	55.5%	1.24×	1.46
MVV Maastricht (+0.5)	58.4%	57.0%	66.5%	0.86×	1.75
FC Dordrecht (-0.5)	41.6%	43.0%	33.5%	1.28×	2.33
MVV Maastricht (-0.5)	32.9%	31.3%	44.5%	0.70×	3.19
MVV Maastricht (-1.5)	13.5%	11.5%	24.4%	0.47×	8.67
MVV Maastricht (-2.5)	4.4%	3.7%	11.8%	0.31×	27.03

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to concede	69.9%	72.4%	81.3%	0.89×	1.38
FC Dordrecht clean sheet	30.1%	27.6%	18.7%	1.48×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht clean sheet in 1st half	59.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
FC Dordrecht to concede in 1st half	40.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht clean sheet in 2nd half	50.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
FC Dordrecht to concede in 2nd half	49.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht over 2.5 corners	89.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
FC Dordrecht over 3.5 corners	78.5%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
FC Dordrecht over 4.5 corners	65.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
FC Dordrecht under 6.5 corners	62.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Dordrecht over 5.5 corners	50.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
FC Dordrecht under 5.5 corners	49.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Dordrecht over 6.5 corners	37.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Dordrecht under 4.5 corners	34.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
FC Dordrecht under 3.5 corners	21.5%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
FC Dordrecht under 2.5 corners	10.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht under 3.5 goals	94.8%	92.4%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
FC Dordrecht under 2.5 goals	83.7%	81.5%	81.5%	1.00×	1.23
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 goals	75.0%	76.2%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 goals	59.6%	59.5%	58.0%	1.03×	1.68
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 goals	40.4%	40.5%	42.0%	0.97×	2.47
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 goals	25.0%	23.8%	27.3%	0.87×	4.21
FC Dordrecht over 2.5 goals	16.3%	18.5%	18.6%	1.00×	5.40
FC Dordrecht over 3.5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	7.0%	1.09×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.52

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht scores more in 2nd half	39.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
FC Dordrecht scores equally in both	37.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
FC Dordrecht scores more in 1st half	22.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (away no bet)	56.4%	57.4%	66.8%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.6%	42.6%	33.2%	1.28×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht even goals	53.1%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
FC Dordrecht odd goals	46.9%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.0%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
FC Dordrecht to score 2+ in a row	32.5%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
MVV Maastricht to score 2+ in a row	25.9%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.6%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
FC Dordrecht to score 3+ in a row	10.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
MVV Maastricht to score 3+ in a row	7.2%	5.5%	—	—	18.09

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht corners (+3.5)	90.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
FC Dordrecht corners (+2.5)	85.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Dordrecht corners (+1.5)	78.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht corners (+3.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
MVV Maastricht corners (+2.5)	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
MVV Maastricht corners (+1.5)	51.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
FC Dordrecht corners (-1.5)	48.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
FC Dordrecht corners (-2.5)	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Dordrecht corners (-3.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
MVV Maastricht corners (-1.5)	21.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
MVV Maastricht corners (-2.5)	14.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
MVV Maastricht corners (-3.5)	9.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	31.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	73.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	66.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 11.5 corners	64.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	55.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 9.5 corners	44.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	35.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	26.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	23.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	9.5%	1.21×	8.72
0-1	10.8%	11.5%	6.3%	1.83×	8.72
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-0	7.1%	7.4%	4.8%	1.54×	13.51
0-2	7.2%	7.4%	3.8%	1.94×	13.51
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
2-0	5.4%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
0-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
3-1	3.0%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.30
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.32
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (2nd half DNB)	56.7%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
MVV Maastricht (2nd half DNB)	43.3%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht leading at HT (DNB)	52.3%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
MVV Maastricht leading at HT (DNB)	47.7%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht or FC Dordrecht (12)	74.5%	72.1%	77.9%	0.93×	1.39
FC Dordrecht or draw (X2)	67.1%	69.6%	55.5%	1.25×	1.44
MVV Maastricht or draw (1X)	58.4%	57.1%	66.5%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht or draw at HT	73.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht or draw at HT	71.1%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht or FC Dordrecht at HT	55.4%	57.6%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht or draw (1UP)	67.1%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
MVV Maastricht or draw (1UP)	58.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht or draw in 2nd half	72.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
MVV Maastricht or FC Dordrecht in 2nd half	64.0%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
MVV Maastricht or draw in 2nd half	63.7%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (DNB)	55.8%	58.1%	43.0%	1.35×	1.72
MVV Maastricht (DNB)	44.2%	41.9%	57.0%	0.74×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to score first	49.8%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
MVV Maastricht to score first	43.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	7.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.0%	51.3%	58.8%	0.87×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.0%	48.7%	41.2%	1.18×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.0%	41.6%	28.3%	1.47×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	39.9%	38.5%	49.5%	0.78×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	9.5%	1.31×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.4%	85.6%	79.0%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.6%	14.4%	21.0%	0.69×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.1%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.8%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.1%	21.0%	—	—	4.77
Both score 1st half only	12.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	4.8%	5.0%	—	—	20.11

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.9%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.1%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.1%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	48.9%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	47.2%	41.0%	1.15×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.4%	26.6%	18.4%	1.44×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.5%	22.9%	37.6%	0.61×	4.36
7+ goals	1.7%	1.8%	3.2%	0.58×	54.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 1	34.7%	33.8%	30.8%	1.10×	2.96
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 0	25.0%	22.3%	27.3%	0.82×	4.48
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 2	24.0%	22.3%	23.6%	0.95×	4.49
FC Dordrecht to score 3+	16.3%	19.6%	18.6%	1.05×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.6%	30.2%	1.18×	2.81
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 0	30.1%	32.6%	18.7%	1.74×	3.07
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 2	21.7%	23.3%	25.8%	0.90×	4.29
MVV Maastricht to score 3+	12.1%	14.3%	25.6%	0.56×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.6%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
FC Dordrecht leading at HT	28.9%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
MVV Maastricht leading at HT	26.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht -1: 1	58.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
FC Dordrecht -1: X	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
FC Dordrecht -1: 2	19.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (0:1)	67.1%	65.2%	55.5%	1.17×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	19.4%	17.8%	20.1%	0.89×	5.60
MVV Maastricht (0:1)	13.5%	13.7%	24.4%	0.56×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (0:2)	86.5%	87.1%	75.6%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.1%	7.7%	12.8%	0.60×	13.03
MVV Maastricht (0:2)	4.4%	3.8%	11.8%	0.32×	26.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (0:3)	95.6%	96.6%	88.2%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	5.7%	0.42×	42.08
MVV Maastricht (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	82.07
MVV Maastricht (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (1:0)	58.4%	58.4%	66.5%	0.88×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	22.3%	21.7%	18.2%	1.19×	4.61
FC Dordrecht (1:0)	19.3%	17.1%	15.5%	1.11×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (2:0)	80.7%	84.6%	84.5%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.2%	10.3%	8.8%	1.16×	9.73
FC Dordrecht (2:0)	7.1%	6.4%	6.8%	0.94×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.9%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede	75.0%	76.0%	72.7%	1.04×	1.32
MVV Maastricht clean sheet	25.0%	24.0%	27.3%	0.88×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
MVV Maastricht to concede in 1st half	42.6%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede in 2nd half	56.5%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 2nd half	43.5%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 6.5 corners	81.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 corners	78.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
MVV Maastricht under 5.5 corners	69.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
MVV Maastricht under 4.5 corners	55.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
MVV Maastricht over 4.5 corners	44.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
MVV Maastricht over 5.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 corners	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
MVV Maastricht over 6.5 corners	19.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 goals	96.6%	96.4%	89.9%	1.07×	1.04
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 goals	87.9%	87.3%	74.4%	1.17×	1.15
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 goals	69.9%	68.0%	81.3%	0.84×	1.47
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 goals	66.2%	67.9%	48.8%	1.39×	1.47
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 goals	33.8%	32.1%	51.2%	0.63×	3.12
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 goals	30.1%	32.0%	18.7%	1.72×	3.12
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 goals	12.1%	12.7%	25.6%	0.50×	7.85
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 goals	3.4%	3.6%	10.1%	0.36×	27.52

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 1st half	59.6%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 1st half	40.4%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	5.4%	—	—	18.55

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht scores equally in both	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
MVV Maastricht scores more in 2nd half	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
MVV Maastricht scores more in 1st half	23.8%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (home no bet)	62.0%	60.0%	60.3%	1.00×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	38.0%	40.0%	39.7%	1.01×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht even goals	54.5%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
MVV Maastricht odd goals	45.5%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 0-1	19.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-0	17.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	9.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.42
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	41.91
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	41.98
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT	22.5%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
MVV Maastricht at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	18.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT	16.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	12.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
MVV Maastricht at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
FC Dordrecht at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
MVV Maastricht at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
FC Dordrecht at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to score last	49.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
MVV Maastricht to score last	43.2%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	7.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
FC Dordrecht to lead by 1 at any time	57.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
MVV Maastricht to lead by 1 at any time	49.4%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
FC Dordrecht to lead by 2 at any time	25.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
MVV Maastricht to lead by 2 at any time	18.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.7%	10.6%	—	—	9.47
FC Dordrecht to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.89
MVV Maastricht to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	—	—	15.03

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht most corners	59.2%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
MVV Maastricht most corners	30.5%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.4%	86.4%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.8%	83.4%	74.1%	1.13×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.9%	72.3%	78.5%	0.92×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.8%	68.8%	72.7%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.8%	68.8%	54.7%	1.26×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.5%	63.3%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.5%	41.0%	1.18×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.2%	48.5%	59.3%	0.82×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.0%	48.5%	32.9%	1.47×	2.06
3-5 goals	43.1%	43.6%	53.6%	0.81×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.8%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.5%	24.5%	37.6%	0.65×	4.09
4-5 goals	21.3%	24.5%	31.8%	0.77×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.4%	14.8%	18.2%	0.81×	6.76
7+ goals	1.7%	2.6%	3.2%	0.80×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht never behind	43.5%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
MVV Maastricht never behind	35.9%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.2%	95.4%	91.0%	1.05×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.9%	87.6%	78.7%	1.11×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	73.8%	72.5%	59.3%	1.22×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	81.6%	0.89×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.1%	52.5%	37.6%	1.40×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	47.9%	47.5%	62.4%	0.76×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	18.4%	1.49×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	26.2%	27.5%	40.7%	0.68×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.1%	12.4%	21.3%	0.58×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	4.8%	1.61×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	4.8%	4.6%	9.0%	0.51×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.8%	92.4%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.9%	86.7%	73.6%	1.18×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	66.6%	67.4%	48.0%	1.40×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.6%	61.9%	77.2%	0.80×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.4%	38.1%	22.8%	1.67×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	33.4%	32.6%	52.0%	0.63×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.1%	13.3%	26.4%	0.50×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.2%	7.6%	10.2%	0.74×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.8%	3.4%	0.83×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.6%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.0%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.8%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.2%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to score in both halves	80.0%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
FC Dordrecht not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
FC Dordrecht to score in both halves	24.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
MVV Maastricht to score in both halves	20.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.0%	53.8%	58.8%	0.91×	1.86
Only FC Dordrecht scores	23.0%	22.3%	14.0%	1.59×	4.49
Only MVV Maastricht scores	17.9%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.1%	7.1%	4.8%	1.49×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.7%	22.6%	19.3%	1.17×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	20.3%	22.6%	13.8%	1.64×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	14.1%	12.1%	19.5%	0.62×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.1%	7.6%	4.8%	1.59×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.3%	7.6%	12.4%	0.61×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.8%	4.5%	9.0%	0.50×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	34.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	19.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	9.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	33.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to win both halves	92.7%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
FC Dordrecht not to win both halves	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
FC Dordrecht to win both halves	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
MVV Maastricht to win both halves	7.3%	5.9%	—	—	17.07

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to win either half	54.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
MVV Maastricht to win neither half	53.1%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
MVV Maastricht to win either half	46.9%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
FC Dordrecht to win neither half	45.2%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to win to nil	82.1%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
FC Dordrecht not to win to nil	77.0%	78.1%	86.0%	0.91×	1.28
FC Dordrecht to win to nil	23.0%	21.9%	14.0%	1.56×	4.57
MVV Maastricht to win to nil	17.9%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	22.1%	1.26×	3.59
FC Dordrecht by 1	22.3%	24.1%	18.2%	1.33×	4.15
MVV Maastricht by 1	19.4%	17.1%	20.1%	0.85×	5.86
FC Dordrecht by 2	12.2%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.51
MVV Maastricht by 2	9.1%	7.2%	12.8%	0.56×	13.90
FC Dordrecht by 3+	7.1%	7.2%	6.8%	1.06×	13.91
MVV Maastricht by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	11.8%	0.23×	36.79