MVV Maastricht v Helmond Sport — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

MVV Maastricht

18:00 UTC

Helmond Sport

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 442h before kick-off

MVV Maastricht win

43.6%

model 42.1%

Draw

27.4%

model 25.3%

Helmond Sport win

28.9%

model 32.6%

442729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
1-0 10.7%
0-1 9.2%
2-1 8.8%
1-2 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.6%	Under 2.5	51.4%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
MVV Maastricht 1+	75.6%	MVV Maastricht 2+	41.2%
Helmond Sport 1+	70.1%	Helmond Sport 2+	34.0%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.21. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 38%

53.5% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 1225 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Helmond Sport (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 76%

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

MVV Maastricht carry the stronger rating, 1410 Elo against 1322.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

MVV Maastricht have an estimated 43.6% win probability, against 28.9% for Helmond Sport and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for MVV Maastricht and 1.21 for Helmond Sport.

Why MVV Maastricht

MVV Maastricht carry the stronger rating, 1410 Elo against 1322. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.41 to 1.21. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Helmond Sport can win

Nothing in the data singles out Helmond Sport.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for MVV Maastricht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Helmond Sport, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

MVV Maastricht: 52% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Helmond Sport: 44% possession, 8.4 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

MVV Maastricht are the model's most likely outcome at 43.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422533	1.41–1.21	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402535	1.37–1.27	1-1 12%	49%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to win	42.1%	43.8%	44.4%	0.99×	2.28
Helmond Sport to win	32.6%	29.0%	33.4%	0.87×	3.44
Draw	25.3%	27.6%	22.3%	1.23×	3.63

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht & not both score	23.0%	22.6%	22.8%	0.99×	4.42
MVV Maastricht & both teams score	19.1%	17.8%	21.7%	0.82×	5.63
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	17.8%	17.6%	1.01×	5.63
Helmond Sport & not both score	17.5%	17.8%	13.9%	1.28×	5.63
Helmond Sport & both teams score	15.1%	17.7%	19.6%	0.90×	5.64
Draw & not both score	6.9%	7.3%	4.8%	1.51×	13.68

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht & over 1.5	31.4%	33.1%	36.8%	0.90×	3.02
MVV Maastricht & under 3.5	30.2%	33.1%	25.8%	1.28×	3.02
MVV Maastricht & over 2.5	24.2%	21.5%	30.6%	0.70×	4.65
Helmond Sport & under 3.5	24.1%	21.5%	19.7%	1.09×	4.65
Helmond Sport & over 1.5	23.4%	21.5%	27.2%	0.79×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	18.9%	17.6%	14.3%	1.23×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	18.9%	17.6%	14.3%	1.23×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	17.6%	17.6%	1.00×	5.69
MVV Maastricht & under 2.5	18.0%	17.6%	13.9%	1.26×	5.69
Helmond Sport & over 2.5	18.0%	17.6%	23.6%	0.75×	5.69
Helmond Sport & under 2.5	14.5%	12.7%	9.9%	1.28×	7.86
MVV Maastricht & over 3.5	12.0%	12.7%	18.7%	0.68×	7.86
MVV Maastricht & under 1.5	10.7%	12.7%	7.7%	1.65×	7.87
Helmond Sport & under 1.5	9.2%	7.5%	6.3%	1.18×	13.40
Helmond Sport & over 3.5	8.4%	7.5%	13.8%	0.54×	13.40
Draw & under 1.5	6.9%	7.5%	4.8%	1.54×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (1UP)	57.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Helmond Sport (1UP)	49.3%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (2UP)	42.1%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Helmond Sport (2UP)	32.6%	30.6%	—	—	3.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.0%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
MVV Maastricht to win 2nd half	34.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Helmond Sport to win 2nd half	29.7%	27.6%	—	—	3.63

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (+2.5)	92.6%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Helmond Sport (+1.5)	80.2%	82.2%	75.6%	1.09×	1.22
MVV Maastricht (+0.5)	67.4%	69.0%	66.6%	1.03×	1.45
Helmond Sport (+0.5)	57.9%	57.1%	55.6%	1.03×	1.75
MVV Maastricht (-0.5)	42.1%	42.9%	44.4%	0.96×	2.33
Helmond Sport (-0.5)	32.6%	31.0%	33.4%	0.93×	3.22
MVV Maastricht (-1.5)	19.8%	17.8%	24.4%	0.73×	5.62
MVV Maastricht (-2.5)	7.4%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	13.00

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to concede	75.6%	75.9%	81.4%	0.93×	1.32
Helmond Sport clean sheet	24.4%	24.1%	18.6%	1.29×	4.16

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport clean sheet in 1st half	54.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Helmond Sport to concede in 1st half	45.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport over 2.5 corners	88.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Helmond Sport over 3.5 corners	76.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Helmond Sport under 6.5 corners	64.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Helmond Sport over 4.5 corners	62.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Helmond Sport under 5.5 corners	51.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Helmond Sport over 5.5 corners	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Helmond Sport under 4.5 corners	37.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Helmond Sport over 6.5 corners	35.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Helmond Sport under 3.5 corners	23.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Helmond Sport under 2.5 corners	11.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport under 3.5 goals	96.6%	97.3%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Helmond Sport under 2.5 goals	87.8%	89.0%	81.5%	1.09×	1.12
Helmond Sport over 0.5 goals	70.1%	71.9%	72.5%	0.99×	1.39
Helmond Sport under 1.5 goals	66.0%	67.2%	58.2%	1.15×	1.49
Helmond Sport over 1.5 goals	34.0%	32.8%	41.8%	0.79×	3.05
Helmond Sport under 0.5 goals	29.9%	28.1%	27.5%	1.02×	3.55
Helmond Sport over 2.5 goals	12.2%	11.0%	18.5%	0.60×	9.05
Helmond Sport over 3.5 goals	3.4%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	37.23

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport under 1.5 in 1st half	91.5%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
Helmond Sport under 0.5 in 1st half	61.7%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Helmond Sport over 0.5 in 1st half	38.3%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Helmond Sport over 1.5 in 1st half	8.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.72

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (away no bet)	62.5%	59.0%	66.5%	0.89×	1.70
Draw (away no bet)	37.5%	41.0%	33.5%	1.23×	2.44

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport even goals	54.5%	52.4%	57.1%	0.92×	1.91
Helmond Sport odd goals	45.5%	47.6%	42.9%	1.11×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.6%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.4%	13.6%	—	—	7.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.2%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
MVV Maastricht to score 2+ in a row	33.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
Helmond Sport to score 2+ in a row	25.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.9%	17.8%	—	—	5.61
MVV Maastricht to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Helmond Sport to score 3+ in a row	7.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport corners (+3.5)	90.5%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Helmond Sport corners (+2.5)	85.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Helmond Sport corners (+1.5)	77.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht corners (+3.5)	73.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
MVV Maastricht corners (+2.5)	63.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
MVV Maastricht corners (+1.5)	53.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Helmond Sport corners (-1.5)	46.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Helmond Sport corners (-2.5)	36.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Helmond Sport corners (-3.5)	26.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
MVV Maastricht corners (-1.5)	22.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
MVV Maastricht corners (-2.5)	15.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
MVV Maastricht corners (-3.5)	9.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.56

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.7%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
12+ corners	33.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	31.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	74.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	35.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	25.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	24.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.6%	9.6%	1.21×	8.63
1-0	10.7%	11.6%	7.7%	1.50×	8.64
0-1	9.2%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.74
2-1	8.8%	7.3%	8.1%	0.90×	13.74
1-2	7.5%	7.3%	7.4%	0.98×	13.75
2-0	7.3%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.75
0-0	6.9%	7.3%	4.8%	1.50×	13.75
0-2	5.3%	7.3%	3.7%	1.95×	13.75
2-2	5.3%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
3-1	4.1%	1.8%	4.7%	0.38×	55.41
1-3	3.0%	1.8%	3.7%	0.48×	55.43
3-0	3.4%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	55.42
3-2	2.5%	1.8%	4.2%	0.43×	55.45
0-3	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	0.69×	55.46
2-3	2.1%	1.8%	3.5%	0.52×	55.46
4-0	1.2%	1.8%	3.5%	0.52×	55.48
4-1	1.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.47
Any other score	2.2%	1.8%	4.7%	0.38×	55.45
0-4	0.6%	1.8%	1.2%	1.45×	55.49
1-4	0.9%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.49
2-4	0.6%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	55.49
3-3	1.0%	1.8%	1.6%	1.12×	55.48
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	1.2%	1.45×	55.50
4-2	0.9%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	55.49
4-3	0.4%	1.8%	0.5%	3.63×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.52×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht leading at HT (DNB)	57.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Helmond Sport leading at HT (DNB)	42.7%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht or Helmond Sport (12)	74.7%	72.4%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
MVV Maastricht or draw (1X)	67.4%	71.0%	66.6%	1.07×	1.41
Helmond Sport or draw (X2)	57.9%	56.2%	55.6%	1.01×	1.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht or draw at HT	76.1%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Helmond Sport or draw at HT	68.0%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
MVV Maastricht or Helmond Sport at HT	55.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht or draw (1UP)	67.4%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Helmond Sport or draw (1UP)	57.9%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht or draw in 2nd half	70.3%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Helmond Sport or draw in 2nd half	65.7%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
MVV Maastricht or Helmond Sport in 2nd half	64.0%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.7%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Neither half drawn	35.3%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (DNB)	56.4%	63.1%	57.1%	1.11×	1.59
Helmond Sport (DNB)	43.6%	36.9%	42.9%	0.86×	2.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to score first	50.2%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Helmond Sport to score first	42.9%	41.4%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	6.9%	6.2%	—	—	16.02

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.6%	52.9%	58.7%	0.90×	1.89
Not both teams to score	47.4%	47.1%	41.3%	1.14×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.6%	42.2%	49.3%	0.86×	2.37
Not both score & under 2.5	39.4%	37.5%	28.4%	1.32×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	11.7%	9.6%	1.23×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.7%	13.0%	0.67×	11.47

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.0%	85.5%	79.0%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.0%	14.5%	21.0%	0.69×	6.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.7%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.3%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	23.4%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
Both score 1st half only	12.4%	11.6%	—	—	8.65
Both score in both halves	5.0%	4.8%	—	—	20.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.7%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.8%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
A half without a goal	48.2%	45.4%	—	—	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	45.9%	41.1%	1.12×	2.18
0-1 goals	26.8%	27.7%	18.6%	1.49×	3.61
4-6 goals	25.0%	27.6%	37.3%	0.74×	3.62
7+ goals	1.8%	1.9%	3.2%	0.60×	51.62

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to score exactly 1	36.1%	34.6%	30.8%	1.12×	2.89
Helmond Sport to score exactly 0	29.9%	27.2%	27.5%	0.99×	3.68
Helmond Sport to score exactly 2	21.8%	24.0%	23.4%	1.02×	4.17
Helmond Sport to score 3+	12.2%	13.4%	18.5%	0.72×	7.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 1	34.4%	30.6%	30.4%	1.01×	3.27
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 0	24.4%	23.0%	18.6%	1.24×	4.35
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 2	24.3%	23.0%	25.8%	0.89×	4.35
MVV Maastricht to score 3+	16.9%	18.5%	25.4%	0.73×	5.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
MVV Maastricht leading at HT	32.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Helmond Sport leading at HT	23.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht -1: 2	57.9%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
MVV Maastricht -1: X	22.3%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
MVV Maastricht -1: 1	19.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (0:1)	57.9%	55.4%	55.6%	1.00×	1.80
Draw (0:1)	22.3%	24.4%	20.1%	1.21×	4.10
MVV Maastricht (0:1)	19.8%	18.4%	24.4%	0.75×	5.45

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (0:2)	80.2%	83.4%	75.6%	1.10×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	12.4%	11.7%	12.7%	0.93×	8.53
MVV Maastricht (0:2)	7.4%	7.2%	11.9%	0.60×	13.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (0:3)	92.6%	92.6%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	6.9%	5.7%	1.20×	14.58
MVV Maastricht (0:3)	2.3%	2.3%	6.3%	0.37×	43.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (0:4)	97.7%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	4.3%	0.29×	80.48
MVV Maastricht (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (1:0)	67.4%	70.3%	66.6%	1.05×	1.42
Draw (1:0)	19.2%	16.4%	18.1%	0.91×	6.09
Helmond Sport (1:0)	13.4%	11.8%	15.4%	0.77×	8.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (2:0)	86.6%	89.2%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	9.0%	6.6%	8.8%	0.75×	15.06
Helmond Sport (2:0)	4.4%	2.7%	6.7%	0.41×	36.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.7%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	24.9%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede	70.1%	71.0%	72.5%	0.98×	1.41
MVV Maastricht clean sheet	29.9%	29.0%	27.5%	1.05×	3.45

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 1st half	61.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
MVV Maastricht to concede in 1st half	38.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 6.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
MVV Maastricht under 5.5 corners	70.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 corners	60.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
MVV Maastricht under 4.5 corners	55.9%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
MVV Maastricht over 4.5 corners	44.1%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 corners	39.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
MVV Maastricht over 5.5 corners	29.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
MVV Maastricht over 6.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.1%	89.8%	1.03×	1.09
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	74.6%	1.11×	1.21
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 goals	75.6%	76.7%	81.4%	0.94×	1.30
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 goals	58.8%	55.8%	48.9%	1.14×	1.79
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 goals	41.2%	44.2%	51.1%	0.87×	2.26
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 goals	24.4%	23.3%	18.6%	1.25×	4.29
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	25.4%	0.69×	5.69
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.73

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.20

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (home no bet)	56.3%	54.3%	59.9%	0.91×	1.84
Draw (home no bet)	43.7%	45.7%	40.1%	1.14×	2.19

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht even goals	53.0%	50.3%	51.7%	0.97×	1.99
MVV Maastricht odd goals	47.0%	49.7%	48.3%	1.03×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.6%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
HT 1-0	20.5%	22.6%	—	—	4.43
HT 0-1	16.3%	18.9%	—	—	5.30
HT 1-1	9.8%	7.7%	—	—	12.97
HT 2-0	6.2%	7.7%	—	—	13.02
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.78
Any other HT score	3.7%	2.5%	—	—	39.79
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.5%	—	—	39.83
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.86
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.5%	—	—	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	24.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Helmond Sport at HT / Helmond Sport at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Helmond Sport at FT	13.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
MVV Maastricht at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.27
Helmond Sport at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.32
MVV Maastricht at HT / Helmond Sport at FT	2.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.42
Helmond Sport at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	2.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.42

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to score last	50.2%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Helmond Sport to score last	42.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.48
No goal scored	6.9%	6.2%	—	—	16.02

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.1%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
MVV Maastricht to lead by 1 at any time	57.6%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Helmond Sport to lead by 1 at any time	49.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
MVV Maastricht to lead by 2 at any time	25.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Helmond Sport to lead by 2 at any time	18.8%	17.7%	—	—	5.65
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	17.6%	—	—	5.68
MVV Maastricht to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.12
Helmond Sport to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	7.0%	—	—	14.26

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport most corners	57.8%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
MVV Maastricht most corners	31.7%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.9%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.6%	81.5%	74.1%	1.10×	1.23
2-6 goals	71.4%	73.6%	78.3%	0.94×	1.36
2-5 goals	68.2%	68.3%	72.5%	0.94×	1.46
1-3 goals	66.3%	68.3%	54.8%	1.25×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.7%	62.2%	60.3%	1.03×	1.61
3-6 goals	46.8%	48.0%	59.1%	0.81×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.0%	41.1%	1.17×	2.08
1-2 goals	44.5%	43.6%	33.1%	1.32×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.6%	43.6%	53.2%	0.82×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.1%	38.8%	41.1%	0.95×	2.58
4-6 goals	25.0%	30.4%	37.3%	0.81×	3.29
4-5 goals	21.8%	24.7%	31.5%	0.78×	4.05
5-6 goals	10.7%	13.4%	18.1%	0.74×	7.46
7+ goals	1.8%	2.0%	3.2%	0.63×	49.60

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht never behind	43.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Helmond Sport never behind	35.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.1%	49.6%	1.01×	1.99
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.9%	50.4%	0.99×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.5%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.5%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.0%	93.0%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.1%	93.0%	95.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.5%	88.8%	78.8%	1.13×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	73.2%	72.4%	81.4%	0.89×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	73.2%	72.4%	59.6%	1.22×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	53.5%	37.8%	1.41×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	46.5%	62.2%	0.75×	2.15
Under 1.5 goals	26.8%	27.6%	18.6%	1.48×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	26.8%	27.6%	40.4%	0.68×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.5%	11.2%	21.2%	0.53×	8.90
Under 0.5 goals	6.9%	7.0%	4.8%	1.46×	14.19
Over 5.5 goals	5.0%	7.0%	9.1%	0.78×	14.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.6%	92.8%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.4%	88.0%	73.7%	1.19×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.7%	68.0%	48.3%	1.41×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.5%	62.5%	77.0%	0.81×	1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.5%	37.5%	23.0%	1.63×	2.67
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.3%	32.0%	51.7%	0.62×	3.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.6%	12.0%	26.3%	0.46×	8.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.4%	7.2%	10.3%	0.70×	13.83
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	3.4%	0.81×	36.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.3%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.4%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.6%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.7%	7.9%	—	—	12.73

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.2%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	19.7%	—	—	5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.8%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport not to score in both halves	80.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
MVV Maastricht not to score in both halves	74.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
MVV Maastricht to score in both halves	25.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Helmond Sport to score in both halves	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.6%	54.7%	58.7%	0.93×	1.83
Only MVV Maastricht scores	23.0%	22.9%	22.8%	1.00×	4.37
Only Helmond Sport scores	17.5%	16.4%	13.9%	1.18×	6.10
Neither team scores	6.9%	6.6%	4.8%	1.37×	15.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.6%	21.6%	19.4%	1.11×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	21.5%	21.8%	0.99×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	19.9%	18.6%	13.9%	1.34×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	14.3%	12.4%	19.4%	0.64×	8.08
Exactly 5 goals	7.5%	7.6%	12.3%	0.62×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.9%	7.6%	4.8%	1.57×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.0%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.0%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	21.6%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport not to win both halves	93.0%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
MVV Maastricht not to win both halves	89.1%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
MVV Maastricht to win both halves	10.9%	12.4%	—	—	8.07
Helmond Sport to win both halves	7.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.11

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to win either half	55.4%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Helmond Sport to win neither half	53.5%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
Helmond Sport to win either half	46.5%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
MVV Maastricht to win neither half	44.6%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport not to win to nil	82.5%	83.3%	86.1%	0.97×	1.20
MVV Maastricht not to win to nil	77.0%	77.1%	77.2%	1.00×	1.30
MVV Maastricht to win to nil	23.0%	22.9%	22.8%	1.00×	4.37
Helmond Sport to win to nil	17.5%	16.7%	13.9%	1.20×	5.97

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	28.0%	22.3%	1.25×	3.57
MVV Maastricht by 1	22.3%	23.7%	20.1%	1.18×	4.21
Helmond Sport by 1	19.2%	17.0%	18.1%	0.94×	5.88
MVV Maastricht by 2	12.4%	11.9%	12.7%	0.94×	8.44
Helmond Sport by 2	9.0%	7.1%	8.8%	0.81×	14.07
MVV Maastricht by 3+	7.4%	7.1%	11.9%	0.60×	14.10
Helmond Sport by 3+	4.4%	2.8%	6.7%	0.42×	35.15