MVV Maastricht v Roda JC Kerkrade — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

MVV Maastricht

14:45 UTC

Roda JC Kerkrade

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 7h before kick-off

MVV Maastricht win

36.6%

model 35.3%

Draw

26.6%

model 25.2%

Roda JC Kerkrade win

36.9%

model 39.4%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
0-1 10.7%
1-0 10.1%
1-2 8.4%
2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.7%	Under 2.5	52.3%
BTTS yes	51.9%	BTTS no	48.1%
MVV Maastricht 1+	71.2%	MVV Maastricht 2+	35.4%
Roda JC Kerkrade 1+	73.7%	Roda JC Kerkrade 2+	38.5%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.33. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 38%

53.6% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 1234 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

MVV Maastricht (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 85%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 382 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Roda JC Kerkrade carry the stronger rating, 1470 Elo against 1409.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Roda JC Kerkrade have an estimated 36.9% win probability, against 36.6% for MVV Maastricht and 26.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for MVV Maastricht and 1.33 for Roda JC Kerkrade.

Why MVV Maastricht

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.33. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Roda JC Kerkrade can win

Roda JC Kerkrade carry the stronger rating, 1470 Elo against 1409.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for MVV Maastricht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Roda JC Kerkrade, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

MVV Maastricht: 52% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Roda JC Kerkrade: 48% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Roda JC Kerkrade are the model's most likely outcome at 36.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	352639	1.20–1.30	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	322642	1.12–1.33	1-1 12%	44%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade to win	39.3%	37.4%	33.4%	1.12×	2.67
MVV Maastricht to win	34.6%	29.1%	44.4%	0.65×	3.44
Draw	26.2%	27.5%	22.3%	1.23×	3.63

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade & not both score	22.4%	22.7%	13.9%	1.63×	4.41
MVV Maastricht & not both score	19.5%	17.8%	22.8%	0.78×	5.61
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	17.8%	17.6%	1.01×	5.61
Roda JC Kerkrade & both teams score	16.9%	17.8%	19.6%	0.91×	5.62
MVV Maastricht & both teams score	15.0%	17.8%	21.7%	0.82×	5.62
Draw & not both score	7.8%	7.3%	4.8%	1.51×	13.69

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade & under 3.5	29.4%	25.6%	19.7%	1.30×	3.91
Roda JC Kerkrade & over 1.5	28.1%	25.5%	27.2%	0.94×	3.92
MVV Maastricht & under 3.5	26.3%	25.5%	25.8%	0.99×	3.92
MVV Maastricht & over 1.5	24.3%	21.5%	36.8%	0.58×	4.65
Roda JC Kerkrade & over 2.5	21.2%	21.5%	23.6%	0.91×	4.66
Draw & under 2.5	20.2%	21.5%	14.3%	1.50×	4.66
Draw & under 3.5	20.2%	21.5%	14.3%	1.50×	4.66
MVV Maastricht & over 2.5	18.3%	17.6%	30.6%	0.57×	5.68
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	17.6%	17.6%	1.00×	5.68
Roda JC Kerkrade & under 2.5	18.1%	17.6%	9.9%	1.77×	5.68
MVV Maastricht & under 2.5	16.2%	17.6%	13.9%	1.27×	5.68
Roda JC Kerkrade & under 1.5	11.1%	12.7%	6.3%	2.01×	7.88
MVV Maastricht & under 1.5	10.3%	12.7%	7.7%	1.65×	7.88
Roda JC Kerkrade & over 3.5	9.9%	7.5%	13.8%	0.54×	13.33
MVV Maastricht & over 3.5	8.3%	7.5%	18.7%	0.40×	13.33
Draw & under 1.5	7.8%	7.5%	4.8%	1.55×	13.34
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.35
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (1UP)	54.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
MVV Maastricht (1UP)	50.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (2UP)	39.3%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
MVV Maastricht (2UP)	34.6%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.0%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Roda JC Kerkrade to win 2nd half	34.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
MVV Maastricht to win 2nd half	28.7%	27.6%	—	—	3.63

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
Roda JC Kerkrade over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Roda JC Kerkrade under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Roda JC Kerkrade over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	18.3%	—	—	5.47

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.0%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.0%	12.4%	—	—	8.07

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (+2.5)	95.3%	97.1%	88.1%	1.10×	1.03
Roda JC Kerkrade (+1.5)	85.7%	89.0%	75.6%	1.18×	1.12
Roda JC Kerkrade (+0.5)	65.4%	69.1%	55.6%	1.24×	1.45
MVV Maastricht (+0.5)	60.7%	63.9%	66.6%	0.96×	1.57
Roda JC Kerkrade (-0.5)	39.3%	36.1%	33.4%	1.08×	2.77
MVV Maastricht (-0.5)	34.6%	30.9%	44.4%	0.70×	3.23
MVV Maastricht (-1.5)	14.3%	11.0%	24.4%	0.45×	9.07
MVV Maastricht (-2.5)	4.7%	2.9%	11.9%	0.24×	34.53

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade to concede	69.8%	71.6%	81.4%	0.88×	1.40
Roda JC Kerkrade clean sheet	30.2%	28.4%	18.6%	1.53×	3.52

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade clean sheet in 1st half	59.8%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Roda JC Kerkrade to concede in 1st half	40.2%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade clean sheet in 2nd half	50.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Roda JC Kerkrade to concede in 2nd half	49.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade over 2.5 corners	86.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Roda JC Kerkrade over 3.5 corners	74.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Roda JC Kerkrade under 6.5 corners	67.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Roda JC Kerkrade over 4.5 corners	60.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Roda JC Kerkrade under 5.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Roda JC Kerkrade over 5.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Roda JC Kerkrade under 4.5 corners	39.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Roda JC Kerkrade over 6.5 corners	32.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Roda JC Kerkrade under 3.5 corners	25.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Roda JC Kerkrade under 2.5 corners	13.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade under 3.5 goals	95.7%	97.2%	93.1%	1.04×	1.03
Roda JC Kerkrade under 2.5 goals	85.8%	89.1%	81.5%	1.09×	1.12
Roda JC Kerkrade over 0.5 goals	72.6%	72.0%	72.5%	0.99×	1.39
Roda JC Kerkrade under 1.5 goals	62.8%	63.9%	58.2%	1.10×	1.57
Roda JC Kerkrade over 1.5 goals	37.2%	36.1%	41.8%	0.86×	2.77
Roda JC Kerkrade under 0.5 goals	27.4%	28.0%	27.5%	1.02×	3.58
Roda JC Kerkrade over 2.5 goals	14.2%	10.9%	18.5%	0.59×	9.14
Roda JC Kerkrade over 3.5 goals	4.3%	2.8%	6.9%	0.40×	36.15

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade under 1.5 in 1st half	90.4%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
Roda JC Kerkrade under 0.5 in 1st half	59.5%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Roda JC Kerkrade over 0.5 in 1st half	40.5%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
Roda JC Kerkrade over 1.5 in 1st half	9.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade scores equally in both	39.6%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Roda JC Kerkrade scores more in 2nd half	38.2%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Roda JC Kerkrade scores more in 1st half	22.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (away no bet)	56.9%	59.2%	66.5%	0.89×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	43.1%	40.8%	33.5%	1.22×	2.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade even goals	53.7%	52.2%	57.1%	0.92×	1.91
Roda JC Kerkrade odd goals	46.3%	47.8%	42.9%	1.11×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.1%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.9%	13.5%	—	—	7.38

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.5%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.5%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Roda JC Kerkrade to score 2+ in a row	29.7%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
MVV Maastricht to score 2+ in a row	26.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.3%	17.8%	—	—	5.62
Roda JC Kerkrade to score 3+ in a row	9.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.55
MVV Maastricht to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	7.3%	—	—	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade corners (+3.5)	91.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Roda JC Kerkrade corners (+2.5)	85.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Roda JC Kerkrade corners (+1.5)	78.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht corners (+3.5)	74.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
MVV Maastricht corners (+2.5)	64.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
MVV Maastricht corners (+1.5)	53.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Roda JC Kerkrade corners (-1.5)	46.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Roda JC Kerkrade corners (-2.5)	35.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Roda JC Kerkrade corners (-3.5)	25.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
MVV Maastricht corners (-1.5)	22.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
MVV Maastricht corners (-2.5)	14.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
MVV Maastricht corners (-3.5)	9.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.7%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
9-11 corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.2%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	70.8%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	61.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	60.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	50.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	39.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	38.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	29.2%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	28.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	21.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.4%	11.6%	9.6%	1.22×	8.61
0-1	11.1%	11.6%	6.3%	1.83×	8.62
1-0	10.3%	11.6%	7.7%	1.51×	8.63
1-2	8.3%	7.3%	7.4%	0.98×	13.76
0-0	7.8%	7.3%	4.8%	1.50×	13.76
2-1	7.7%	7.3%	8.1%	0.90×	13.76
0-2	6.9%	7.3%	3.7%	1.95×	13.77
2-0	5.9%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.77
2-2	5.0%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.39
0-3	3.0%	1.8%	2.6%	0.69×	55.43
1-3	3.6%	1.8%	3.7%	0.48×	55.42
3-1	3.1%	1.8%	4.7%	0.38×	55.43
2-3	2.2%	1.8%	3.5%	0.52×	55.46
3-0	2.4%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	55.45
3-2	2.0%	1.8%	4.2%	0.43×	55.46
Any other score	1.8%	1.8%	4.7%	0.38×	55.46
0-4	1.0%	1.8%	1.2%	1.45×	55.48
1-4	1.2%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.48
2-4	0.7%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	55.49
3-3	0.9%	1.8%	1.6%	1.12×	55.49
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	1.2%	1.45×	55.50
4-0	0.7%	1.8%	3.5%	0.52×	55.49
4-1	0.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.49
4-2	0.6%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%	3.63×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.52×	55.51

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (2nd half DNB)	54.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
MVV Maastricht (2nd half DNB)	45.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade leading at HT (DNB)	50.2%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
MVV Maastricht leading at HT (DNB)	49.8%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht or Roda JC Kerkrade (12)	73.8%	72.5%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Roda JC Kerkrade or draw (X2)	65.4%	70.9%	55.6%	1.28×	1.41
MVV Maastricht or draw (1X)	60.7%	62.6%	66.6%	0.94×	1.60

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade or draw at HT	72.9%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
MVV Maastricht or draw at HT	72.7%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
MVV Maastricht or Roda JC Kerkrade at HT	54.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade or draw (1UP)	65.4%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht or draw (1UP)	60.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade or draw in 2nd half	71.3%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
MVV Maastricht or draw in 2nd half	65.7%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
MVV Maastricht or Roda JC Kerkrade in 2nd half	63.0%	62.5%	—	—	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.2%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Neither half drawn	33.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (DNB)	53.2%	53.1%	42.9%	1.24×	1.89
MVV Maastricht (DNB)	46.8%	46.9%	57.1%	0.82×	2.13

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade to score first	47.9%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
MVV Maastricht to score first	44.3%	41.5%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	7.8%	6.3%	—	—	15.96

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.3%	53.1%	58.7%	0.90×	1.89
Not both teams to score	49.7%	46.9%	41.3%	1.14×	2.13

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.1%	42.3%	28.4%	1.49×	2.36
Both score & over 2.5	37.9%	37.5%	49.3%	0.76×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.4%	11.7%	9.6%	1.23×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	7.6%	8.6%	13.0%	0.66×	11.57

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.5%	85.4%	79.0%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.5%	14.6%	21.0%	0.69×	6.87

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.4%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.6%	29.6%	—	—	3.37

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.5%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	22.2%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	11.6%	—	—	8.65
Both score in both halves	4.4%	4.9%	—	—	20.42

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.8%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.7%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
A goal in each half	49.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	45.9%	41.1%	1.12×	2.18
0-1 goals	29.3%	27.8%	18.6%	1.49×	3.60
4-6 goals	22.7%	22.7%	37.3%	0.61×	4.40
7+ goals	1.4%	1.9%	3.2%	0.59×	52.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade to score exactly 1	35.5%	34.6%	30.8%	1.12×	2.89
Roda JC Kerkrade to score exactly 0	27.4%	27.1%	27.5%	0.98×	3.70
Roda JC Kerkrade to score exactly 2	23.0%	24.1%	23.4%	1.03×	4.15
Roda JC Kerkrade to score 3+	14.2%	13.4%	18.5%	0.73×	7.45

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 1	36.2%	36.1%	30.4%	1.19×	2.77
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 0	30.2%	30.4%	18.6%	1.63×	3.29
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 2	21.7%	22.9%	25.8%	0.89×	4.36
MVV Maastricht to score 3+	12.0%	13.5%	25.4%	0.53×	7.43

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Roda JC Kerkrade leading at HT	27.3%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
MVV Maastricht leading at HT	27.1%	28.7%	—	—	3.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade -1: 1	60.7%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
Roda JC Kerkrade -1: X	21.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Roda JC Kerkrade -1: 2	17.4%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (0:1)	65.4%	69.7%	55.6%	1.25×	1.43
Draw (0:1)	20.3%	24.5%	20.1%	1.22×	4.09
MVV Maastricht (0:1)	14.3%	10.7%	24.4%	0.44×	9.36

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (0:2)	85.7%	89.6%	75.6%	1.19×	1.12
Draw (0:2)	9.6%	7.2%	12.7%	0.57×	13.88
MVV Maastricht (0:2)	4.7%	3.1%	11.9%	0.26×	32.73

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (0:3)	95.3%	97.1%	88.1%	1.10×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	3.4%	2.3%	5.7%	0.41×	43.08
MVV Maastricht (0:3)	1.2%	2.3%	6.3%	0.36×	43.57

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.64
MVV Maastricht (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.00

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (1:0)	60.7%	64.3%	66.6%	0.97×	1.55
Draw (1:0)	21.9%	22.9%	18.1%	1.26×	4.37
Roda JC Kerkrade (1:0)	17.4%	16.4%	15.4%	1.07×	6.09

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (2:0)	82.6%	84.4%	84.6%	1.00×	1.19
Draw (2:0)	11.3%	11.9%	8.8%	1.36×	8.38
Roda JC Kerkrade (2:0)	6.1%	6.5%	6.7%	0.97×	15.41

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.3%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	25.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede	72.6%	71.4%	72.5%	0.99×	1.40
MVV Maastricht clean sheet	27.4%	28.6%	27.5%	1.04×	3.50

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 1st half	59.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
MVV Maastricht to concede in 1st half	40.5%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede in 2nd half	54.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 2nd half	45.9%	48.7%	—	—	2.06

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 6.5 corners	83.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 corners	75.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
MVV Maastricht under 5.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
MVV Maastricht under 4.5 corners	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 corners	58.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 corners	42.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
MVV Maastricht over 4.5 corners	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
MVV Maastricht over 5.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 corners	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
MVV Maastricht over 6.5 corners	16.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 goals	96.6%	97.7%	89.8%	1.09×	1.02
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 goals	88.0%	87.8%	74.6%	1.18×	1.14
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 goals	69.8%	69.0%	81.4%	0.85×	1.45
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 goals	66.4%	68.8%	48.9%	1.41×	1.45
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 goals	33.6%	31.2%	51.1%	0.61×	3.21
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 goals	30.2%	31.0%	18.6%	1.67×	3.22
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 goals	12.0%	12.2%	25.4%	0.48×	8.19
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 goals	3.4%	2.3%	10.2%	0.22×	44.24

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	39.8%	—	—	2.52
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	7.0%	—	—	14.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht scores equally in both	41.8%	40.4%	—	—	2.48
MVV Maastricht scores more in 2nd half	34.4%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
MVV Maastricht scores more in 1st half	23.8%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade (home no bet)	60.0%	60.9%	59.9%	1.02×	1.64
Draw (home no bet)	40.0%	39.1%	40.1%	0.98×	2.56

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht even goals	54.6%	50.3%	51.7%	0.97×	1.99
MVV Maastricht odd goals	45.4%	49.7%	48.3%	1.03×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.5%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
HT 0-1	18.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.29
HT 1-0	18.4%	18.9%	—	—	5.29
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.7%	—	—	12.97
HT 0-2	4.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.73
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.5%	—	—	39.73
Any other HT score	3.1%	2.5%	—	—	39.82
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.86
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.86
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.5%	—	—	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade at HT / Roda JC Kerkrade at FT	21.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
MVV Maastricht at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Roda JC Kerkrade at FT	15.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	13.3%	11.9%	—	—	8.37
MVV Maastricht at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.27
Roda JC Kerkrade at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.31
MVV Maastricht at HT / Roda JC Kerkrade at FT	2.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.40
Roda JC Kerkrade at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	1.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade to score last	47.9%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
MVV Maastricht to score last	44.3%	40.4%	—	—	2.47
No goal scored	7.8%	6.3%	—	—	15.96

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.2%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Roda JC Kerkrade to lead by 1 at any time	54.6%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
MVV Maastricht to lead by 1 at any time	50.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Roda JC Kerkrade to lead by 2 at any time	22.9%	19.8%	—	—	5.04
MVV Maastricht to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	17.7%	—	—	5.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.7%	11.4%	—	—	8.79
Roda JC Kerkrade to lead by 3 at any time	7.6%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
MVV Maastricht to lead by 3 at any time	6.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.25

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade most corners	57.8%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
MVV Maastricht most corners	31.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	88.0%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.4%	81.5%	74.1%	1.10×	1.23
2-6 goals	69.3%	68.3%	78.3%	0.87×	1.46
1-3 goals	68.1%	68.3%	54.8%	1.25×	1.46
2-5 goals	66.6%	68.3%	72.5%	0.94×	1.46
2-4 goals	59.9%	58.9%	60.3%	0.98×	1.70
1-2 goals	46.7%	48.0%	33.1%	1.45×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.0%	41.1%	1.17×	2.08
3-6 goals	44.1%	43.6%	59.1%	0.74×	2.29
3-5 goals	41.3%	43.6%	53.2%	0.82×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.7%	34.1%	41.1%	0.83×	2.94
4-6 goals	22.7%	24.7%	37.3%	0.66×	4.04
4-5 goals	20.0%	18.2%	31.5%	0.58×	5.50
5-6 goals	9.4%	8.9%	18.1%	0.49×	11.24
7+ goals	1.4%	2.0%	3.2%	0.62×	50.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade never behind	41.7%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
MVV Maastricht never behind	37.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.2%	49.6%	1.01×	1.99
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.8%	50.4%	0.99×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.8%	95.7%	90.9%	1.05×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.2%	93.0%	95.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.2%	88.8%	78.8%	1.13×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	75.9%	78.1%	59.6%	1.31×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	70.7%	72.6%	81.4%	0.89×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.5%	53.6%	37.8%	1.42×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	45.5%	46.4%	62.2%	0.75×	2.16
Under 1.5 goals	29.3%	27.4%	18.6%	1.47×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	24.1%	21.9%	40.4%	0.54×	4.56
Over 4.5 goals	10.8%	11.2%	21.2%	0.53×	8.92
Under 0.5 goals	7.8%	7.0%	4.8%	1.45×	14.24
Over 5.5 goals	4.2%	4.3%	9.1%	0.48×	23.01

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.3%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.5%	97.2%	89.7%	1.08×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.5%	88.2%	73.7%	1.20×	1.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.3%	68.1%	48.3%	1.41×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.8%	62.3%	77.0%	0.81×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.2%	37.7%	23.0%	1.64×	2.65
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.7%	31.9%	51.7%	0.62×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.5%	11.8%	26.3%	0.45×	8.48
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.5%	2.8%	10.3%	0.27×	36.07
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	36.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.3%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.4%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.6%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.7%	7.8%	—	—	12.80

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.9%	80.4%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to score in both halves	80.1%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Roda JC Kerkrade not to score in both halves	78.1%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Roda JC Kerkrade to score in both halves	21.9%	22.0%	—	—	4.54
MVV Maastricht to score in both halves	19.9%	18.4%	—	—	5.42

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.3%	54.8%	58.7%	0.93×	1.82
Only Roda JC Kerkrade scores	22.4%	22.8%	13.9%	1.64×	4.39
Only MVV Maastricht scores	19.5%	16.3%	22.8%	0.71×	6.14
Neither team scores	7.8%	6.6%	4.8%	1.37×	15.09

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.6%	19.4%	1.27×	4.06
Exactly 1 goals	21.4%	21.6%	13.9%	1.55×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	13.3%	12.3%	19.4%	0.64×	8.10
Exactly 0 goals	7.8%	7.6%	4.8%	1.57×	13.12
Exactly 5 goals	6.6%	7.6%	12.3%	0.62×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.2%	4.3%	9.1%	0.48×	23.01

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.9%	18.4%	—	—	5.45
3+ goals in 1st half	8.7%	7.8%	—	—	12.80

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.7%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
1 goal in 2nd half	34.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	23.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to win both halves	92.3%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
Roda JC Kerkrade not to win both halves	90.7%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
Roda JC Kerkrade to win both halves	9.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.12
MVV Maastricht to win both halves	7.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roda JC Kerkrade to win either half	52.3%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
MVV Maastricht to win neither half	51.9%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
MVV Maastricht to win either half	48.1%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Roda JC Kerkrade to win neither half	47.7%	46.2%	—	—	2.16

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to win to nil	80.5%	83.4%	77.2%	1.08×	1.20
Roda JC Kerkrade not to win to nil	77.6%	77.2%	86.1%	0.90×	1.30
Roda JC Kerkrade to win to nil	22.4%	22.8%	13.9%	1.64×	4.39
MVV Maastricht to win to nil	19.5%	16.6%	22.8%	0.73×	6.02

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.2%	27.9%	22.3%	1.25×	3.59
Roda JC Kerkrade by 1	21.9%	23.9%	18.1%	1.32×	4.19
MVV Maastricht by 1	20.3%	23.9%	20.1%	1.19×	4.19
Roda JC Kerkrade by 2	11.3%	11.7%	8.8%	1.33×	8.54
MVV Maastricht by 2	9.6%	7.1%	12.7%	0.56×	14.18
Roda JC Kerkrade by 3+	6.1%	7.0%	6.7%	1.05×	14.25
MVV Maastricht by 3+	4.7%	2.9%	11.9%	0.24×	35.05