NAC Breda v Heracles Almelo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 23 October 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

NAC Breda

18:00 UTC

Heracles Almelo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 55h before kick-off

NAC Breda win

21.7%

model 21.9%

Draw

17.9%

model 17.5%

Heracles Almelo win

60.4%

model 60.6%

221860

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 8.2%
1-3 7.2%
2-2 6.4%
1-1 6.1%
2-3 5.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	78.7%	Under 2.5	21.3%
BTTS yes	73.0%	BTTS no	27.0%
NAC Breda 1+	79.0%	NAC Breda 2+	46.2%
Heracles Almelo 1+	92.7%	Heracles Almelo 2+	73.6%

Expected goals 1.56 – 2.62. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

57/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

88%

★ Best pick

Heracles Almelo (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

63.6% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Heracles Almelo carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1374.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Heracles Almelo have an estimated 60.4% win probability, against 21.7% for NAC Breda and 17.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for NAC Breda and 2.62 for Heracles Almelo.

Why NAC Breda

Nothing in the data singles out NAC Breda.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.9%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Heracles Almelo can win

Heracles Almelo carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1374. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for NAC Breda, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

NAC Breda: 62% possession, 23.0 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Heracles Almelo: 57% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 60.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 8.2%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	221861	1.56–2.62	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	151273	1.95–3.93	1-3 6%	93%	84%
deep	171469	1.77–3.38	1-3 7%	89%	80%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win	68.5%	64.9%	33.5%	1.93×	1.54
NAC Breda to win	17.3%	19.4%	44.5%	0.44×	5.16
Draw	14.2%	13.5%	22.1%	0.61×	7.40

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & both teams score	52.0%	48.2%	19.7%	2.45×	2.07
Heracles Almelo & not both score	16.5%	18.0%	14.0%	1.28×	5.57
NAC Breda & both teams score	14.3%	13.3%	22.0%	0.60×	7.53
Draw & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.53
NAC Breda & not both score	3.0%	4.9%	22.6%	0.21×	20.61
Draw & not both score	0.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.01×	20.68

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & over 1.5	66.4%	67.6%	27.4%	2.47×	1.48
Heracles Almelo & over 2.5	63.1%	54.7%	23.7%	2.31×	1.83
Heracles Almelo & over 3.5	53.4%	48.9%	13.9%	3.52×	2.05
NAC Breda & over 1.5	16.1%	18.0%	37.0%	0.49×	5.56
NAC Breda & over 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	30.8%	0.58×	5.56
Heracles Almelo & under 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	13.7%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
NAC Breda & over 3.5	11.6%	12.8%	18.9%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	10.4%	12.8%	8.1%	1.58×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	10.4%	12.8%	8.1%	1.58×	7.79
NAC Breda & under 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	25.7%	0.31×	12.63
Heracles Almelo & under 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Draw & under 2.5	3.8%	4.8%	14.1%	0.34×	20.81
Draw & under 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	14.1%	0.34×	20.81
NAC Breda & under 2.5	2.1%	4.8%	13.8%	0.35×	20.82
Heracles Almelo & under 1.5	2.1%	4.8%	6.3%	0.77×	20.82
NAC Breda & under 1.5	1.2%	4.8%	7.6%	0.63×	20.83
Draw & under 1.5	0.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1UP)	83.4%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
NAC Breda (1UP)	44.0%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2UP)	68.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
NAC Breda (2UP)	17.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half	60.7%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
2nd half drawn	21.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
NAC Breda to win 2nd half	18.3%	18.1%	—	—	5.51

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.7%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.3%	13.2%	—	—	7.60

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
NAC Breda over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
NAC Breda under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
NAC Breda over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (+2.5)	97.0%	96.3%	88.2%	1.09×	1.04
Heracles Almelo (+1.5)	92.1%	92.1%	75.6%	1.22×	1.09
Heracles Almelo (+0.5)	82.7%	82.5%	55.5%	1.49×	1.21
Heracles Almelo (-0.5)	68.5%	68.7%	33.5%	2.05×	1.46
NAC Breda (+0.5)	31.5%	31.3%	66.5%	0.47×	3.19
NAC Breda (-0.5)	17.3%	17.5%	44.5%	0.39×	5.73
NAC Breda (-1.5)	7.9%	7.9%	24.4%	0.32×	12.68
NAC Breda (-2.5)	3.0%	3.7%	11.8%	0.31×	27.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede	83.0%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Heracles Almelo clean sheet	17.0%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half	53.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half	46.7%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 2nd half	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 2nd half	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo under 6.5 corners	80.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 corners	78.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Heracles Almelo under 5.5 corners	69.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 corners	61.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Heracles Almelo under 4.5 corners	54.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Heracles Almelo over 4.5 corners	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 corners	38.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Heracles Almelo over 5.5 corners	30.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 corners	21.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Heracles Almelo over 6.5 corners	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals	96.6%	97.5%	72.7%	1.34×	1.03
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals	85.0%	81.5%	42.0%	1.94×	1.23
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals	65.4%	68.0%	18.6%	3.66×	1.47
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals	56.7%	59.4%	93.0%	0.64×	1.68
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals	43.3%	40.6%	7.0%	5.80×	2.46
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals	34.6%	32.0%	81.5%	0.39×	3.12
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals	15.0%	18.5%	58.0%	0.32×	5.40
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals	3.4%	2.5%	27.3%	0.09×	39.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half	74.1%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half	60.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half	39.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half	25.9%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo scores more in 2nd half	52.9%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Heracles Almelo scores more in 1st half	25.5%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Heracles Almelo scores equally in both	21.6%	22.1%	—	—	4.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda (away no bet)	54.9%	51.8%	66.8%	0.78×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.1%	48.2%	33.2%	1.45×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo even goals	50.1%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Heracles Almelo odd goals	49.9%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	50.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Not both halves over 1.5	49.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	92.6%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both halves under 1.5 goals	7.4%	8.1%	—	—	12.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	86.7%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row	74.8%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Either team to score 3+ in a row	52.4%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row	45.1%	46.0%	—	—	2.18
NAC Breda to score 2+ in a row	33.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
NAC Breda to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.6%	—	—	17.76

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda corners (+3.5)	92.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
NAC Breda corners (+2.5)	88.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
NAC Breda corners (+1.5)	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Heracles Almelo corners (+3.5)	64.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
NAC Breda corners (-1.5)	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Heracles Almelo corners (+2.5)	54.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
NAC Breda corners (-2.5)	45.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Heracles Almelo corners (+1.5)	43.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
NAC Breda corners (-3.5)	35.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Heracles Almelo corners (-1.5)	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Heracles Almelo corners (-2.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Heracles Almelo corners (-3.5)	7.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	26.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	81.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	63.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	36.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	18.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	27.3%	20.4%	4.7%	4.38×	4.90
1-3	6.6%	7.4%	3.7%	2.01×	13.51
1-2	5.9%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
1-4	5.6%	7.4%	2.2%	3.35×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-3	5.9%	7.4%	3.6%	2.08×	13.51
2-4	5.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.29
0-0	0.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.32
0-1	2.1%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.31
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
0-3	3.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
0-4	3.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
1-0	1.2%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.31
1-1	3.4%	1.7%	9.5%	0.18×	58.30
2-0	0.9%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.31
2-1	3.1%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.30
3-0	0.5%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.32
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.31
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	3.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.30
3-4	2.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.30
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.94×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2nd half DNB)	76.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
NAC Breda (2nd half DNB)	23.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB)	70.6%	73.3%	—	—	1.37
NAC Breda leading at HT (DNB)	29.4%	26.7%	—	—	3.74

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda or Heracles Almelo (12)	85.8%	86.5%	77.9%	1.11×	1.16
Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)	82.7%	80.6%	55.5%	1.45×	1.24
NAC Breda or draw (1X)	31.5%	35.1%	66.5%	0.53×	2.85

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw at HT	78.9%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
NAC Breda or Heracles Almelo at HT	71.9%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
NAC Breda or draw at HT	49.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP)	83.4%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
NAC Breda or draw (1UP)	44.0%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half	81.7%	81.9%	—	—	1.22
NAC Breda or Heracles Almelo in 2nd half	79.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
NAC Breda or draw in 2nd half	39.3%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	56.7%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
A half drawn	43.3%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (DNB)	79.8%	74.8%	43.0%	1.74×	1.34
NAC Breda (DNB)	20.2%	25.2%	57.0%	0.44×	3.97

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score first	65.3%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
NAC Breda to score first	34.2%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
No goal scored	0.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.87

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	80.0%	67.1%	58.8%	1.14×	1.49
Not both teams to score	20.0%	32.9%	41.2%	0.80×	3.04

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	76.6%	66.3%	49.5%	1.34×	1.51
Not both score & over 2.5	12.0%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Not both score & under 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	28.3%	0.29×	12.06
Both score & under 2.5	3.4%	4.7%	9.5%	0.49×	21.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	55.1%	59.0%	79.0%	0.75×	1.70
Both teams to score 2+	44.9%	41.0%	21.0%	1.95×	2.44

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	55.1%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Not both to score in 2nd half	44.9%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score 2nd half only	33.3%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
Neither half both score	27.2%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score in both halves	21.8%	21.2%	—	—	4.73
Both score 1st half only	17.7%	15.1%	—	—	6.61

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	60.5%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Both teams to score by HT	39.5%	39.0%	—	—	2.56

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	83.6%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
A half without a goal	16.4%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	49.8%	47.2%	37.6%	1.26×	2.12
7+ goals	25.6%	26.6%	3.2%	8.32×	3.76
2-3 goals	20.9%	22.9%	41.0%	0.56×	4.37
0-1 goals	3.7%	1.8%	18.4%	0.10×	54.13

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score 3+	65.4%	59.2%	18.6%	3.19×	1.69
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2	19.6%	19.6%	23.6%	0.83×	5.11
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1	11.6%	12.9%	30.8%	0.42×	7.76
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0	3.4%	4.6%	27.3%	0.17×	21.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda to score exactly 1	30.1%	32.5%	30.2%	1.08×	3.07
NAC Breda to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.6%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
NAC Breda to score 3+	26.2%	26.5%	25.6%	1.04×	3.77
NAC Breda to score exactly 0	17.0%	18.8%	18.7%	1.00×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT	50.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Draw at HT	28.1%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
NAC Breda leading at HT	21.1%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo -1: 2	50.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Heracles Almelo -1: 1	31.5%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Heracles Almelo -1: X	17.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:1)	82.7%	78.0%	55.5%	1.40×	1.28
Draw (0:1)	9.4%	9.3%	20.1%	0.46×	10.77
NAC Breda (0:1)	7.9%	9.2%	24.4%	0.38×	10.82

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:2)	92.1%	90.7%	75.6%	1.20×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	12.8%	0.29×	26.58
NAC Breda (0:2)	3.0%	3.7%	11.8%	0.32×	26.69

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:3)	97.0%	96.6%	88.2%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	5.7%	0.42×	42.10
NAC Breda (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	82.02
NAC Breda (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1:0)	50.6%	53.9%	15.5%	3.48×	1.86
NAC Breda (1:0)	31.5%	30.0%	66.5%	0.45×	3.33
Draw (1:0)	17.9%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda (2:0)	49.4%	49.7%	84.5%	0.59×	2.01
Heracles Almelo (2:0)	33.1%	32.6%	6.8%	4.82×	3.07
Draw (2:0)	17.5%	15.8%	8.8%	1.79×	6.32

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	57.0%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
1st half highest scoring	26.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	16.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda to concede	96.6%	95.8%	72.7%	1.32×	1.04
NAC Breda clean sheet	3.4%	4.2%	27.3%	0.15×	24.01

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda to concede in 1st half	74.1%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
NAC Breda clean sheet in 1st half	25.9%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda to concede in 2nd half	86.7%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
NAC Breda clean sheet in 2nd half	13.3%	12.9%	—	—	7.73

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda over 2.5 corners	92.8%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
NAC Breda over 3.5 corners	84.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
NAC Breda over 4.5 corners	73.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
NAC Breda over 5.5 corners	61.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
NAC Breda under 6.5 corners	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
NAC Breda over 6.5 corners	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
NAC Breda under 5.5 corners	39.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
NAC Breda under 4.5 corners	26.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
NAC Breda under 3.5 corners	15.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
NAC Breda under 2.5 corners	7.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda under 3.5 goals	89.6%	87.3%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
NAC Breda over 0.5 goals	83.0%	82.2%	81.3%	1.01×	1.22
NAC Breda under 2.5 goals	73.8%	74.3%	74.4%	1.00×	1.35
NAC Breda over 1.5 goals	52.8%	53.2%	51.2%	1.04×	1.88
NAC Breda under 1.5 goals	47.2%	46.8%	48.8%	0.96×	2.14
NAC Breda over 2.5 goals	26.2%	25.7%	25.6%	1.01×	3.88
NAC Breda under 0.5 goals	17.0%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.62
NAC Breda over 3.5 goals	10.4%	12.7%	10.1%	1.26×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda under 1.5 in 1st half	82.3%	83.7%	—	—	1.20
NAC Breda over 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
NAC Breda under 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
NAC Breda over 1.5 in 1st half	17.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda scores more in 2nd half	40.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
NAC Breda scores equally in both	32.8%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
NAC Breda scores more in 1st half	26.8%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (home no bet)	82.8%	86.6%	60.3%	1.44×	1.16
Draw (home no bet)	17.2%	13.4%	39.7%	0.34×	7.45

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda even goals	51.4%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
NAC Breda odd goals	48.6%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	19.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 0-1	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	12.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-0	12.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 0-2	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-0	9.2%	7.0%	—	—	14.38
HT 1-2	8.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.39
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.05

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	44.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	17.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
NAC Breda at HT / NAC Breda at FT	10.1%	12.6%	—	—	7.93
NAC Breda at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	6.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Draw at HT / NAC Breda at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
NAC Breda at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.58
Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Heracles Almelo at HT / NAC Breda at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score last	65.2%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
NAC Breda to score last	34.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	0.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.87

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time	83.4%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	76.9%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time	61.7%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	45.9%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
NAC Breda to lead by 1 at any time	44.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time	40.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
NAC Breda to lead by 2 at any time	17.1%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
NAC Breda to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	—	—	14.98

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda most corners	66.1%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Heracles Almelo most corners	24.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.1%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	70.7%	72.4%	78.5%	0.92×	1.38
3-6 goals	63.1%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
1-5 goals	58.9%	59.1%	86.4%	0.68×	1.69
2-5 goals	55.6%	59.1%	72.7%	0.81×	1.69
4-6 goals	49.8%	48.5%	37.6%	1.29×	2.06
3-5 goals	48.0%	48.5%	53.6%	0.91×	2.06
1-4 goals	41.3%	43.6%	74.1%	0.59×	2.30
2-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	60.4%	0.65×	2.55
4-5 goals	34.7%	35.2%	31.8%	1.11×	2.84
5-6 goals	32.7%	35.2%	18.2%	1.94×	2.84
3-4 goals	30.4%	35.2%	41.3%	0.85×	2.84
7+ goals	25.6%	30.2%	3.2%	9.46×	3.31
1-3 goals	24.2%	24.5%	54.7%	0.45×	4.08
2-3 goals	20.9%	24.5%	41.0%	0.60×	4.09
1-2 goals	10.9%	14.8%	32.9%	0.45×	6.75

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo never behind	55.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
NAC Breda never behind	16.1%	18.2%	—	—	5.49

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.5%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	81.6%	1.17×	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	62.4%	1.40×	1.14
Over 3.5 goals	75.4%	77.3%	40.7%	1.90×	1.29
Under 5.5 goals	59.3%	58.6%	91.0%	0.64×	1.71
Over 4.5 goals	58.3%	58.6%	21.3%	2.76×	1.71
Under 4.5 goals	41.7%	41.4%	78.7%	0.53×	2.42
Over 5.5 goals	40.7%	41.4%	9.0%	4.61×	2.42
Under 3.5 goals	24.6%	22.7%	59.3%	0.38×	4.40
Under 2.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	37.6%	0.33×	8.07
Under 1.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	18.4%	0.25×	21.86
Under 0.5 goals	0.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	96.0%	97.2%	77.2%	1.26×	1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	86.9%	86.7%	52.0%	1.67×	1.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.3%	72.4%	26.4%	2.74×	1.38
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	69.9%	67.5%	96.6%	0.70×	1.48
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	50.6%	51.9%	89.8%	0.58×	1.93
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	49.4%	48.1%	10.2%	4.71×	2.08
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	30.1%	32.5%	3.4%	9.60×	3.07
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.7%	27.6%	73.6%	0.38×	3.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	13.1%	13.3%	48.0%	0.28×	7.53
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	4.0%	2.8%	22.8%	0.12×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	87.9%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Under 2.5 in 1st half	64.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	62.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 1.5 in 1st half	37.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	35.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half	12.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	95.2%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	58.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	41.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	4.8%	4.7%	—	—	21.40

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda not to score in both halves	66.1%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
Heracles Almelo to score in both halves	64.3%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves	35.7%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
NAC Breda to score in both halves	33.9%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	80.0%	74.5%	58.8%	1.27×	1.34
Only Heracles Almelo scores	16.5%	16.0%	14.0%	1.14×	6.24
Only NAC Breda scores	3.0%	4.6%	22.6%	0.20×	21.72
Neither team scores	0.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.83

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	40.7%	38.1%	9.0%	4.24×	2.63
Exactly 5 goals	17.6%	17.5%	12.4%	1.41×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	13.3%	12.1%	21.9%	0.55×	8.25
Exactly 2 goals	7.6%	7.6%	19.3%	0.39×	13.13
Exactly 1 goals	3.2%	4.5%	13.8%	0.32×	22.39
Exactly 0 goals	0.5%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.43

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
3+ goals in 1st half	35.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
1 goal in 1st half	25.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
No goals in 1st half	12.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	80.5%	80.5%	—	—	1.24
1 goal in 2nd half	14.7%	14.4%	—	—	6.95
No goals in 2nd half	4.8%	4.7%	—	—	21.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda not to win both halves	96.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Heracles Almelo not to win both halves	69.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Heracles Almelo to win both halves	30.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
NAC Breda to win both halves	3.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win either half	80.7%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
NAC Breda to win neither half	64.4%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
NAC Breda to win either half	35.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Heracles Almelo to win neither half	19.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NAC Breda not to win to nil	97.0%	96.2%	77.4%	1.24×	1.04
Heracles Almelo not to win to nil	83.5%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Heracles Almelo to win to nil	16.5%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.92
NAC Breda to win to nil	3.0%	3.8%	22.6%	0.17×	26.01

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo by 3+	33.1%	27.7%	6.8%	4.10×	3.61
Heracles Almelo by 1	17.9%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Heracles Almelo by 2	17.5%	17.1%	8.8%	1.93×	5.87
Draw	14.2%	11.8%	22.1%	0.53×	8.51
NAC Breda by 1	9.4%	7.2%	20.1%	0.36×	13.90
NAC Breda by 2	4.8%	2.7%	12.8%	0.21×	36.75
NAC Breda by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	11.8%	0.23×	36.81