Nantes v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 14
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
3 – 8
xG per shot
0.02 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.29
Goals − xG
-0.14 – +0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
48.1%
Draw
25.8%
Angers win
26.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 0.14 xGAngers 0.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Zinedine Ferhat |
| 15' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Moses Simon |
| 16' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Zinedine Ferhat |
| 21' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jim Allevinah |
| 27' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Zeze |
| 36' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 44' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 47' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Camara |
| 47' |
Angers |
Marius Courcoul | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 58' |
Nantes |
Pedro Chirivella | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 62' |
Angers |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 62' |
Angers |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 66' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Francis Coquelin |
| 75' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Chirivella |
| 81' |
Angers |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 94' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Himad Abdelli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.36 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Yahia Fofana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lilian Raolisoa MR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| Florent Hanin DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Marius Courcoul MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jim Allevinah Sub | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Zinedine Ferhat ML | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Zinédine Ould Khaled Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jacques Ekomie Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Farid El Melali Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Matthis Abline FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Nathan Zeze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Moses Simon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jean-Charles Castelletto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Fabien Centonze DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pedro Chirivella MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nicolas Cozza Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Francis Coquelin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tinotenda Kadewere Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |