Nantes v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 14
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
1 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.58 – -1.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
33.8%
Draw
29.2%
Auxerre win
37.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.14 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 0.42 xGAuxerre 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Josué Casimir |
| 7' |
 Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bahereba Guirassy |
| 15' |
Auxerre |
Gideon Mensah | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Auxerre |
Clément Akpa | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 32' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 44' |
Nantes |
Hong Hyun-Seok | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Osman |
| 50' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 57' |
Nantes |
Francis Coquelin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mostafa Mohamed |
| 59' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 61' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 61' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 67' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 69' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Osman |
| 70' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Namaso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.77 | 0.04 | 0.88 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Théo De Percin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Ibrahim Osman ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Josué Casimir MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Francisco Sierralta DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fredrik Oppegård Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Theo Bair Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassine Benhattab FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francis Coquelin MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bahereba Guirassy FWL | 75 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Hong Hyun-Seok MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Louis Leroux Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthis Abline Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amady Camara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |