Nantes v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 4
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.53
Goals − xG
+0.02 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
30.3%
Draw
27.7%
Brest win
42.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Brest are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDDDWLLWD last 10
scored 15
from 20.8 xG
conceded 14
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.41 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 0.98 xGBrest 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Francis Coquelin |
| 11' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
 Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.26 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brendan Chardonnet |
| 31' |
Nantes |
Francis Coquelin | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deiver Machado |
| 39' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 48' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mostafa Mohamed |
| 48' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 49' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 50' |
Nantes |
Frederic Guilbert | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 51' |
Nantes |
Deiver Machado | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 51' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Deiver Machado |
| 57' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Frederic Guilbert |
| 73' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ignatius Ganago |
| 75' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 85' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.27 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Romain Del Castillo |
| 97' |
Nantes |
Ali Youssif | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 97' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 98' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luc Zogbe DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soumaila Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Lala Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Cozza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ali Youssif DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ignatius Ganago ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani MR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Francis Coquelin DMC | 49 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Louis Leroux Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| Matthis Abline Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mathieu Acapandié Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |